2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsTable New England 1-2 shows the Scenario Case Energy Efficiency Impacts on Winter PeakDemand Projections and Resultant Supply-Side Capacity Adders to Winter Conceptual Capacity.The same methodology described above is applicable to the Scenario Case Winter ConceptualCapacity (MW) line item, as shown in Table New England 2-6 (line 15).Table New England-1-2 – Scenario Case Energy Efficiency Impacts on Winter PeakDemand Projections and Resultant Supply-Side Capacity Adders to Winter ConceptualCapacityCategory 200920101. ReferenceCase WinterPeak HourDemand (MW)2. EnergyEfficiency (EE)Build-Out(percent)3. EnergyEfficiencyReduction(MW)4. EnergyEfficiency inReference Case(MW)5. Demand-Side EENeeded forWinter PeakDemandScenario Case(MW)6. EE Supply-Side CapacityAdders toScenario CaseWinterConceptualCapacity (MW)20102011201120122012201320132014201420152015201620162017201720182018201922,100 22,105 22,175 22,290 22,335 22,440 22,540 22,645 22,750 22,8600.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0110 221 333 446 558 673 789 906 1,024 1,143506 626 872 751 751 751 751 751 751 7510 0 0 0 0 0 38 155 273 3920 0 0 0 0 0 38 155 273 392The method described above outlines how the Scenario Case’s 5 percent of seasonal (summerand winter) peak demand were theoretically reduced from the Reference Case projections inorder to simulate the resultant impact from new Energy Efficiency programs materializing withinNew England, as stipulated within the Scenario #1 requirement. Therefore, 5 percent of theoverall 15 percent, that is supposed to come from new renewable resources, comes in the form ofnew, demand-side resources within the category of Energy Efficiency, but reflected as supplysidecapacity within the Conceptual Capacity line item of the associated spreadsheet.GenerationWithin the Scenario Case, the same assumptions were used for Existing (Certain and Other)Capacity that was used within the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Reference Case. Thedifference between the two cases, Scenario Case versus Reference Case, lies within thePage 682009 Scenario Reliability Assessment