2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentscenters are situated. The distance between these large generation complexes and the load centersare in the order of 700 to 800 miles.TransÉnergie, the Transmission Operator, operates an extensive transmission system in order toprovide the necessary access to resources and to loads. The following table shows the mainload-end substations and associated transmission to be built during the study horizon.Table Québec-5: Projected Transmission AdditionsVoltage Length In-ServiceTransmission Project Name (KV) (Miles) Date(s)From / ToIn Progress - New InstallationsMont-Tremblant station 120-25 kV Dec-2009and Line 120 4,8 Dec-2009Vaudreuil-Soulanges station 120-25 kV Nov-2009In Progress - RestorationsDelson station 120 Nov-2009Saint-Basile station 120 Nov-2010Sorel Station 120 Nov-2010Planned - New InstallationsAnne- Hébert station 315-25 kV Fall 2010and Line 315 8,2 Fall 2010Beauceville - Sainte-Marie 120 18,6 Spring 2011Montcalm station 230-25 kV 2012Neubois station 120-25 kV Fall 2012No delay with any of these projects is expected. A delay in any particular project would notaffect Bulk System reliability.Operational IssuesThere are no significant anticipated unit outages, variable resources, transmission outages ortemporary operating measures that are anticipated to impact reliability during the next ten years.One major anticipated unit outage (Gentilly-2 nuclear unit of 675 MW) is scheduled from late2010 to mid-2012 but this outage will not impact reliability. Variable resources, transmissionadditions and temporary operating measures are not expected to negatively impact reliabilityduring the next ten years.Non-hydraulic resources account only for a small portion of total resources. Plants using oil orjet fuel are refuelled by boat or by truck and generally not during the winter season. Natural gasis used at a single cogeneration plant and is delivered under a firm natural gas purchase contract.Operational planning studies are being continuously conducted by TransÉnergie, the QuébecArea controller. Yearly peak demand period studies are conducted to assess system conditionsduring winter peak periods. Extreme weather in Québec translates into very low temperaturesduring the Winter Operating Period. Through a transmission planning criterion, transmissionplanning studies must take into account a 4,000 MW load increase above the normal load2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 115
Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentsforecast on the system during such extreme weather conditions. This is equivalent to 110 percentof system peak load. Québec relies on both internal and external resources to serve thisadditional load and transmission capacity is available.Reliability Assessment AnalysisTo determine whether existing and planned resources provide an adequate level of reliability,Québec uses the NPCC resource adequacy criterion, a loss of load expectation (LOLE) of 0.1day/year. The last Québec Area Comprehensive Review of Resource Adequacy, approved bythe NPCC Reliability Coordination Committee (RCC) in March 2009, indicates that a long termrequired reserve of 11.7 percent of the peak load is needed. 84 This percentage can vary if thefuture resources have different characteristics or the load uncertainty varies. The Québec Areatreats short term (i.e., 1 through 4 years) and long term (5 years and more) Reserve Marginsrequirements slightly differently. The long term required reserve is equal to the fourth year ofthe assessment. This four-year time frame gives sufficient time to build new peaking units or tofind new demand side resources.As shown in the next table, until 2015/2016, the Québec Area has surplus resources. For the lastthree years of this assessment, additional resources are needed to respect the NPCC reliabilitycriterion (750 MW in 2016/2017, 850 MW in 2017/2018 and 1,200 MW in 2018/2019). At thattime, Québec will have close to 4,000 MW of wind power as installed capacity. In thisassessment of reliability wind power is derated to zero. If a capacity factor of 30 percent wasused to assess reliability, wind power represents an equivalent peak capacity of 1,200 MW andreserve margins would be within target.Table Québec-6: Demand, Resources, and ReservesDemand, Resources and Reserves (in MW)Net Deliverable Planned PlannedInternal Capacity Reserves ReservesDemand Resources %YEAR (A) (B) (C = B-A) (D = C/A)2009/2010 34,500 40,182 5,682 16.5%2010/2011 35,353 40,190 4,837 13.7%2011/2012 35,826 40,013 4,187 11.7%2012/2013 36,313 41,402 5,089 14.0%2013/2014 36,672 41,452 4,780 13.0%2014/2015 37,391 42,124 4,733 12.7%2015/2016 37,675 42,108 4,433 11.8%2016/2017 38,570 42,331 3,761 9.8%2017/2018 39,000 42,709 3,709 9.5%2018/2019 39,306 42,709 3,403 8.7%Hydro-Québec’s energy requirements are mostly met by hydro generating stations, which arelocated on different river systems scattered over a large territory. The major plants are backedby multi-year reservoirs (water reserves lasting more than one year). The Québec Balancing84 http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resource.aspxPage 1162009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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