2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsWECCIntroduction and SummaryThe Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) studied the effect of one scenario of 15percent renewables generation (by energy) in the Western Interconnection in 2017. The scenariothat was studied was not the only one that could have been constructed and other scenarios couldlead to different specific results. The study, however, along with other efforts underway inWECC did lead to several general overall conclusions.1. High levels of renewable generation, because of their spatial location relative to Westernload centers, can lead to stresses on the capacity of the transmission system and the needto increase that capacity to deliver the generation to load.2. High levels of variable renewable generation can raise significant operating challengesthat can require new institutional arrangements and business practices in order toeconomically maintain the ability of Balancing Authorities (BA) to meet North AmericanElectric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and WECC reliability standards.3. While high levels of renewable generation per se do not raise adequacy issues, highlevels of variable renewable generation, raise two kinds of adequacy issues.o First, it is important to evaluate how much variable generation can reliably beexpected to contribute to system peak.o Second, high penetrations of variable generation can require significant amountsof flexible resources to integrate that variable generation into the grid. Onlyresources with the ability to ramp up and down quickly — such as hydro,combustion turbines, storage resources, and certain demand-side managementresources — have the appropriate attributes to be able to integrate wind, solarphotovoltaic, and other variable renewable resources into the grid.4. High levels of renewable generation, typically with very low operating costs, would havea significant effect on generation and fuel use by those units typically on the margin (i.e.,gas generation) in the Western Interconnection. This could raise issues of gasprocurement and scheduling, though WECC was unable to study those issues. Natural gassupplies delivered through intra-state pipeline systems offer the greatest operatingflexibility when such systems are connected to gas storage projects. The areas in WECCthat plan to follow variable renewable output with gas-fired generation otherwise mayneed to have natural gas storage infrastructure built or inter-state pipelines would have toaccept day-after or real-time schedule changes.WECC and its members (utilities, state and provincial entities, independent generators, andothers) are addressing the issues raised by these conclusions.WECC has an extensive study program ongoing under the guidance of the TransmissionExpansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC). This work is performed in coordinationwith Western Subregional Planning Groups (SPG) and individual transmission providersto evaluate long-range needs for transmission expansion in the Western Interconnection.The coordination among the three levels of study efforts, interconnection-wide to2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 149
Scenario Reliability Self-Assessmentsindividual transmission provider, and the relationship of these groups and study efforts toeach other and to the providers’ responsibilities under their Open Access TransmissionTariffs is described in a document posted on the WECC Web site. 99In addition to the large number of past and ongoing operating issue studies beingconducted by WECC members, WECC recently created the Variable GenerationSubcommittee (VGS) to coordinate pertinent WECC study efforts and the disseminationof results (both WECC’s and those of members) across the WECC membership. TheVGS is modeled in part on the NERC Integration of Variable Generation Task Force(IVGTF) and has a mandate to address operating, planning and market issues related tovariable generation in the Western Interconnection, and to interface and coordinate withthe NERC IVGTF. The VGS is in its initial stages of developing work plans. A link tothe VGS home page on the WECC Web site is provided below. 100One of the tasks of the VGS Planning Work Group is to evaluate the various datasources available and studies already performed in order to provide guidance on thereliable capacity that is offered by the various kinds of variable renewable generation inthe Western Interconnection, focusing particularly on wind generation. This wouldenable planners to evaluate the amount of other generation and demand-side resourcesthat need to be put in place to ensure adequacy going forward.WECC does not at this time have a program to evaluate the impacts of gas displacementby large amounts of variable renewable generation on gas markets, gas procurement, andother issues raised for the natural gas system. However, the California EnergyCommission (CEC) conducted a study in 2007 that examined the natural gas usageimpacts of high penetrations of renewable in California, and the entire WesternInterconnection. 101 The report found that with the high penetrations examined, sufficientnatural gas usage reductions were predicted and that overall West-wide natural gas pricedeclines could be expected.The CEC is conducting additional examinations of the impacts of high renewables on thenatural gas system as part of the 2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report proceeding. Aforthcoming CEC staff report suggests that a 33 percent renewable scenario on aninterconnection-wide basis would reduce the predicted average annual natural gas use inthe power generation sector by about 15 percent in the year 2020. This is a comparisonto a Reference Case with renewable resources built out according to currentrequirements. 102Background and Assumptions 103WECC performed two studies to respond to the transmission expansion and fuel use questionsposed in the 2009 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment (Scenario Case). The base case was99 www.wecc.biz/committees/BOD/TEPPC/default.aspx100 www.wecc.biz/committees/StandingCommittees/JGC/VGS/default.aspx101 “Scenario Analyses of California’s Electricity System: Preliminary Results for the 2007 Integrated Energy PolicyReport, Second Addendum.” CEC, CEC-200-2007-010-AD2-SD. August 2007.102 “Impact of AB32 Scoping Plan Electricity Resource Goals on New Natural Gas-Fired Generation.” CEC, June2009.103 Details supporting the narrative in this report are provided in the Attachment.Page 1502009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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