2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsNew YorkExecutive SummaryThe NYISO is currently studying the integration of 8,000 megawatts (MW) of wind-generatingresources into the New York bulk electric transmission grid in the year 2018. The final report iscurrently scheduled to be presented to our Market Participants, finalized and released in thefourth quarter of 2009. The energy that is projected to be generated with the addition of thesewind plants is assumed to comprise approximately 12 percent of the projected New York ControlArea energy use in 2018. For that same year, another 5.4 percent of the energy need is assumedto be provided by Energy Efficiency. Combined, wind resources and Energy Efficiency;represent approximately 16-18 percent of the total NYISO forecasted energy needs for 2018.Our preliminary analysis indicates that some of the wind energy could be constrained and notdeliverable without transmission upgrades. This results in a reduction of the wind energy tomeet the projected 2018 energy use. When combined with the assumed 5.4 percent level ofEnergy Efficiency, these resources then would likely represent approximately 15-17 percent ofthe 2018 forecasted energy need.This level of wind penetration would likely result in increased operating challenges on a day-todaybasis due to the variability of wind in real-time and transmission congestion in some areas ofthe transmission system, possibly where it is currently not encountered.The NYISO has in place five-minute nominal dispatch cycles, real-time and day-aheadforecasting, which also includes wind resources and the integration of wind into economicdispatch. The NYISO cautions that the results of this study may not apply to much higher levelsof wind plant penetration, e.g. 20 percent and 30 percent of total energy. Such higher levelswould require further study.It is important to note that this document consists of the results of an ongoing study, the finalresults of which will occur after the publication of this scenario. Therefore any preliminaryrepresentations contained herein, reflect the status of that study as of August 7, 2009, and thefinal results are subject to change.IntroductionThe Reference Case used for comparison with this Scenario is the NYISO 2009 Long-TermReliability Assessment report. The 2009 Reference Case is based upon econometric loadforecasts from the NYISO 2009 Load and Capacity Data Report (“Gold Book”) 71 . The ScenarioCase was developed from the NYISO’s 2009 RNA Report 72 . The underlying data for theReference Case was initially based upon econometric load forecasts from the 2008 Load andCapacity Data Report with revisions made in August 2008 to account for changes due to theEnergy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (EEPS) and to include new information developed after thepublication of the 2008 Gold Book and prior to the start of the 2009 RNA study.71 2009 Load and Capacity Data Report,http://www.nyiso.com/public/services/planning/planning_data_reference_documents.jsp72 2009 Reliability Needs Assessment, Final Report January 2013.http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/newsroom/press_releases/2009/RNA_2009_Final_1_13_09.pdf2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment Page 93
Scenario Reliability Self-AssessmentsThe power flow analysis and simulations for 8,000 MW of wind were only conducted for thestudy year 2018. The purpose of the study is to determine the areas of the transmission systemand the extent that wind plants would be constrained as well as how system variability would beimpacted by wind.DemandThe NYISO used its August 2008 demand forecast for the Scenario Case. It includes the impactof new Energy Efficiency/conservation initiatives being implemented by the State of New Yorkas part of the Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard. The economic assumptions include highereconomic growth than in the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment load forecast, which wasprepared after the current recession commenced. The weather assumptions are the same as thoseused in the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment load forecast.The 2009 summer peak demand reported in the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment wasforecasted to be 33,452 MW. For the same year, the scenario's summer peak demand forecastwas 34,059 MW. The 2018 summer peak forecast in the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessmentis 35,450 MW, a growth of 1,998 MW over nine years. The scenario’s peak forecast for the sameyear is 35,658 MW, a growth of 1,599 MW. The annual average growth rate summer peakdemand for the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment is 0.65 percent. For the same period, thesummer peak demand growth rate of the scenario is 0.51 percent.GenerationCapacity resource data in the base Scenario Case are from the 2009 RNA report. These includegeneration resources listed in the 2008 Gold Book, 2,084 MW of Special Case Resources, andthose resources that met specific screening requirements for inclusion while the Reference Caseused the 2009 Gold Book data Also, the Reference Case includes assumptions for FutureCapacity additions and Conceptual additions that were different from the Scenario studyconditions. The resulting differences total a reduction of 1,333 MW for the Scenario Case studyyear of 2018 vs. the Reference Case. Capacity resources of 42,536 MW were included in theScenario Case versus the 43,869 MW reported in the Reference Case.For the Scenario Case study, 8,000 MW of wind resources were added, all in the year 2018. Thefigure below presents the simulated output of the 8,000 MW of wind assuming no transmissionconstraints. The trend component, or green line is the 720 hourly moving average or monthlymoving average. It demonstrates how the wind plant output varies seasonably.The 8,000 MW of wind included in this study represents nearly all of the wind projects listed inthe NYISO Interconnection Queue as of the ignition of the study. 73 These projects have not metany milestones other than having submitted a request to be interconnected to the NYISOtransmission system.73 The interconnection process is a formal process defined by NYISO’s tariffs by which the NYISO evaluatestransmission and generation projects, submitted by Market Participants, developers, and other qualifiedorganizations to determine their impact on system reliability.Page 942009 Scenario Reliability Assessment
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Table of ContentsTable of ContentsN
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Executive SummaryTransmission Criti
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Background Information for this Rep
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Scenario Reliability Assessment Sum
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About This Reporto Nuclear scenario
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Joint Coordinated System PlanThemat
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Joint Coordinated System Plan2009 S
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Scenario LetterScenario LetterDecem
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Scenario LetterIn an effort to add
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Scenario Letterd) Provide a table,
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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the reliability of theto ensurebulk
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2009 Scenario Reliability Assessment - NERC

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