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A well-known study out <strong>of</strong> UC Berkeleyby organizational behavior pr<strong>of</strong>essorPhilip Tetlock found that televisionpundits—that is, people who earn theirliv<strong>in</strong>gs by hold<strong>in</strong>g forth confidently onthe basis <strong>of</strong> limited <strong>in</strong>formation—makeworse predictions about political andeconomic trends than they would byrandom chance. And the very worstprognosticators tend to be the mostfamous and the most confident—thevery ones who would be considerednatural leaders <strong>in</strong> an HBS classroom.<strong>The</strong> U.S. Army has a name for a similarphenomenon: “the Bus to Abilene.”“Any army <strong>of</strong>ficer can tell you whatthat means,” Colonel (Ret.) Stephen J.Gerras, a pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> behavioral sciencesat the U.S. Army War College,told Yale Alumni Magaz<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> 2008. “It’sabout a family sitt<strong>in</strong>g on a porch <strong>in</strong>Texas on a hot summer day, and160/929

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