Ikelic - Alliance Digital Repository

COAL
ENERGY POLICY & FORECASTS
CHINA SEEN AS MAJOR MARKET FOR
CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGIES
IEA Coal Research has published "Chinese Coal
Prospects to 2010."
IEA notes that over the past
16 years Chinese coal production has more than
doubled-fueling
the country's spectacular
economic growth. China is now the world's lead
ing coal producer, and is dependent on coal for
three-quarters of its total energy requirements.
The report analyzes coal prospects in China over
the period to 2010.
The study begins by assessing the likely impact
of trends in population and economic growth,
and of changes in fuel prices on energy and
electricity
needs. The potential for fuels other
than coal to meet these needs is analyzed, and a
projection of future coal demand established.
The report goes on to assess whether the
projected coal demand can be met.
TABLE 1
Changes in the structure, pricing
and cost of
Chinese coal production are analyzed. So too
are infrastructure! constraints on coal transport
and utilization. The potential for coal imports and
exports, and the environmental implications of
likely developments in coal production and use,
are also covered. The report concludes that the
projected coal demand could In theory be met.
However, a significant part of the demand may
need to be met by imports. Moreover, meeting
the projected demand would require a for
midable level of annual capital investment in coal
production, transportation and utilization
facilities-approaching 10 percent of the
country's gross national product in 1993. This
may prove very
difficult to achieve.
The author's projection of future Chinese energy
demand by sector is presented in Table 1 . This is
based on a simple model of the Chinese
economy. The key assumptions are overall GNP
growth of 8.5 percent per year and substantially
increased real energy prices.
PROJECTED CHINESE ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
%/Yr. 1990-2010
(Author's Estimate)
Sectoral Energy Million Tonnes Coal Eauivalent
Growth Rate Growth Rate 1390 2000 2010
Agriculture 5.0 3.1 48.5 65.8 89.3
Industry 9.2 3.3 675.8 929.4 1,278.1
Construction 9.0 4.5 12.0 18.8 29.2
Transport 12.0 6.0 45.4 81.3 145.6
Commerce, etc. 10.0 12.0 17.0 52.8 163.9
Residential 6.8 158.0 305.0 588.9
Other 5.0 30.2 49.2 80.1
Total 8.5 4.3 987.0 1,502.3 2,375.1
4-22
THE SYNTHETIC FUELS REPORT, JANUARY 1995