Ikelic - Alliance Digital Repository

COAL
Electricity Demand
It Is a well established characteristic of rapidly
developing economies that much of the growth
in energy requirements takes the form of
electricity. Power consumption in China in
creased more than 3-fold between 1978 and
1993, reaching 815 terawatt-hours (tWh) in the lat
ter year.
Rapid growth in electricity demand is expected to
continue. Projected electricity demand of just
over 1,400 tWh in 2000 is lower than some recent
Chinese estimates. For instance the Ministry of
Electric Power has projected potential demand in
2000 at 1,540-1,580 tWh, although actual genera
tion in that year is projected at only
1,400-1,440 tWh.
China's ability to satisfy the projected growth in
electricity demand will depend on the evolving
structure of electricity supply and the rate of
power station construction. Responsibility for the
sector at national level lies with the Min
electricity
istry of Electric Power, which was established in
April 1993.
It is officially envisaged that a quarter of the capi
tal will come from overseas sources, compared
with a tenth in recent years.
A large part of the capacity will have to be based
on imported technology. Part of the capacity will
consist of advanced generating technology such
as commercial-scale integrated gasification com
bined cycle plants.
Environmental Implications
On a relatively conservative estimate Chinese
C02 emissions in 2010 will rise to almost 5 giga
tonnes per year. The country will then be respon
sible for around 16 percent of global emis C02
sions. The increase in annual Chinese C02 emis
sions over the period will be little lower than that
from all of the OECD countries combined.
There are substantial environmental problems
associated with coal being used at relatively low
4-23
in over 400,000 industrial boilers,
efficiency
140,000 industrial kilns and innumerable domes
tic stoves.
China unveiled a plan to harmonize economic
growth with environmental protection (see Sinor
Synthetic Fuels Report. October 1994, page 56).
The plan, known as Agenda 21, encompasses a
first group of 63 projects within 9 priority areas,
including many
related to coal production and
use. Implementation will cost around
US$3.8 billion, of which it is hoped that two-fifths
will come from abroad. While coal prices
remained artifically
low and subsidies were in
place, the incentive to utilize energy
more effi
ciently and cleanly was low. As these conditions
change, and as the country's environmental
regulations are tightened, the scope for clean
coal technologies being
greater.
adopted will be much
This will remain the case even if the projected
rate of increase in coal and energy supply, and
thus overall economic growth, have to be scaled
down because of capital investment constraints.
Those constraints would, however, suggest that
a substantial part of the cost of environmental
measures may have to be met by outside bodies,
given the competition for capital resources within
China.
####
IEA SURVEY REVEALS INDUSTRY CAUTION
ON CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGIES
The International Energy Agency (IEA) published
in November, a survey conducted by its Coal In
dustry Advisory Board (CIAB)
on the status of
combined cycle Clean Coal Technologies (CCT),
the first in a series of three on emerging clean
coal technologies. The Board solicited views on
their applicability and future prospects from
power utilities, manufacturers and others in the
coal business.
The survey, entitled "Industry Attitudes to Com
bined Cycle Clean Coal Technologies,"
indicates
THE SYNTHETIC FUELS REPORT, JANUARY 1995