Turks and Caicos Islands

In the Turks and Caicos Islands gridded temperature observations have shown an increase at an average
rate of 0.12˚C per decade over the period 1960-2006 which is expected to increase by at least 0.7-2.0˚C for
the GCM ensemble by the 2080’s. RCM projections indicate the potential for more rapid increases (See
Section 3). Though these changes dispersed over such times spans appear to be small, episodes of
increased temperatures could impact vulnerable groups at a given point in time. The potential effects are
also multi-sectoral as water supplies and the agriculture sector may be affected.
In terms of tourism this will be an important consideration because most travellers seek countries with
warm weather to escape the cold winters but due caution should be taken by elderly travel enthusiasts
when choosing destinations. Additionally, exposure to higher temperatures may also contribute to increase
in skin diseases; a consideration that becomes more relevant as temperatures increase (Confalonieri, et al.,
2007). While temperature may be considered a positive determinant of visitor demands it should be noted
that on one hand cooler temperate destinations tend to become more attractive as temperature increases,
while warm tropical destinations become less attractive (Hamilton and Tol, 2004). However, the reverse
may be also true depending on the destination. It is uncertain at what temperature threshold such
scenarios will affect Caribbean destinations such as the Turks and Caicos Islands.
4.4.3. Indirect Impacts
Increase in vector-borne diseases
The Turks and Caicos Islands have a dry tropical climate, with low rainfall (Bennett et al., 2002) and
numerous marshes and mangrove swamps. These conditions, as well as flooding which occurs after heavy
rainfall and is often associated with the hurricane season; create a suitable environment for mosquito to
breed in Turks and Caicos Islands (PAHO, 2011). In the Turks and Caicos Islands Climate Change Green
Paper it has been stated that precipitation patterns are likely to affect the occurrence of vector-borne
diseases such as malaria, yellow fever and dengue in the territory (Climate Change Committee, 2011b).
Climate is not the only important factor in the successful transmission of diseases; other factors include the
disease source, the vector and a human population (Hales, Wet, Maindonald, & Woodward, 2002). Climate
change projections indicate the tendency for overall decreases in rainfall events (See Section 3) which
might decrease mosquito proliferation once water storage facilities and infrastructure such as cisterns do
not contribute to mosquito breeding sites.
Another important consideration for public health and vector-borne diseases is that incurred from the
tourism industry. There were 255,000 ‘stay over’ visitors to Turks and Caicos in 2009, the great majority
originating from the United States of America (BCQS, 2010). The cruise ship industry draws a high volume
of tourists to the islands on a yearly basis. This influx of people from non-endemic areas represents a
potentially susceptible population to vector-borne disease infections if conditions on the island were to
become more favourable for disease transmission.
Dengue Fever – Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease – transmitted by the Aedes aegypti
mosquito - of humans, and exists in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide (Gubler, 2002; Patz, et al.,
2000; Rigau-Pérez et al., 1998). Population growth, urbanization and modern transportation are believed to
have contributed to its resurgence in recent times (Gubler, 2002). It has been shown that dengue fever
transmission is altered by increases in temperature and rainfall (Hales et al., 1996) but further research on
the association between the two is needed. Both from modelled data and observations, it has also been
found that changes in climate determine the geographical boundaries of dengue fever (Epstein, 2001;
Epstein et al., 1998; Hales, et al., 2002; Hsieh and Chen, 2009; Martens, Jetten, & Focks, 2007; Patz, et al.,
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