Turks and Caicos Islands

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GCM projections indicate increases in sea-surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases range between +0.9˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. The range of projections under any single emissions scenario spans roughly around 1.0 to 1.5˚C. Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Turks and Caicos Islands Observed Mean 1970-99 Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Sea Surface Temperature Observed Trend 1960- 2006 Projected changes by Projected changes by Projected changes by the 2020s the 2050s the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max (˚C) (change in ˚C per decade) Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C A2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 Annual 27.2 0.02 A1B 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.1 2.6 B1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.8 A2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.8 DJF 26 0.02 A1B 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.2 2.6 B1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.9 A2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.6 MAM 26 0 A1B 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 B1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 1 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 A2 0.2 0.7 1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.8 JJA 28.3 0.04 A1B 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.2 2.1 2.6 B1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.7 A2 0.4 0.7 1 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.8 SON 28.3 0.03 A1B 0.4 0.7 0.9 1 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.8 B1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1 1.3 1.9 3.8. Temperature Extremes Extreme hot and cold values are defined by the temperatures that are exceeded on 10% of days in the ‘current’ climate or reference period. This allows us to define ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ relative to the particular climate of a specific region or season, and determine relative changes in extreme events. There is insufficient daily observational data to identify trends in daily temperature extremes in Turks and Caicos Islands. GCM projections indicate increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days by 27-81% of days and ‘hot’ nights by 36- 81% of nights annually by the 2080s. The rate of increase varies substantially between models for each scenario, but is very similar throughout the year. ‘Cold’ days and nights diminish in frequency, and do not occur at all in most models by the 2080s. 24
Annual Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Turks and Caicos Islands DJF MAM JJA SON Annual DJF MAM JJA SON Annual DJF MAM JJA Observed Mean 1970-99 % Frequency Turks and Caicos Islands: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes Observed Trend 1960- 2006 Change in frequency per decade Projected changes by Projected changes by Projected changes by the 2020s the 2050s the 2080s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max 25 Future % frequency Future % frequency A2 Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p) 27 47 60 42 66 81 A1B 32 47 58 37 63 72 B1 26 37 46 27 44 52 A2 48 69 86 72 92 97 A1B 53 71 81 64 91 94 B1 33 51 56 52 62 75 A2 32 64 90 58 89 98 A1B 39 65 81 49 87 96 B1 30 45 56 30 56 75 A2 60 76 92 84 97 99 A1B 66 78 89 78 93 98 B1 52 60 75 54 77 89 A2 24 76 97 47 96 100 A1B 33 79 97 44 93 99 B1 26 Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p) 62 83 27 75 90 A2 35 47 59 54 63 81 A1B 39 49 56 48 62 70 B1 32 38 46 36 46 51 A2 51 65 83 79 89 96 A1B 54 70 78 68 89 93 B1 32 48 56 51 61 72 A2 43 60 86 77 88 97 A1B 37 62 75 57 84 93 B1 27 44 53 35 58 71 A2 70 76 93 95 98 99 A1B 70 79 88 81 95 98 B1 53 61 75 62 79 86 A2 51 82 96 85 98 99 A1B 61 86 96 78 95 99 B1 44 Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p) 65 79 55 81 88 A2 0 1 4 0 0 1 A1B 0 1 2 0 0 2 B1 0 2 3 0 1 3 A2 0 1 4 0 0 1 A1B 0 1 2 0 0 2 B1 0 2 3 0 1 3 A2 0 1 5 0 0 0 A1B 0 1 3 0 0 2 B1 0 1 4 0 0 5 A2 0 0 3 0 0 0 A1B 0 0 1 0 0 1 B1 0 0 3 0 0 3
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Caribbean Regional Headquarters Has
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4.3.4. Women and Youth in TCI Agric
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6.3. Energy Supply and Distribution
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Figure 5.8.2: Relationship status o
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Table 4.1.2: Availability of water
Page 11 and 12: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The CARIBSAVE Part
Page 13 and 14: The field work components of the re
Page 15 and 16: LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Page 17 and 18: UKOT ----------------- United Kingd
Page 19 and 20: Overview Of Climate Change Issues I
Page 21 and 22: The field study sites include notab
Page 23 and 24: coastal infrastructure and settleme
Page 25 and 26: Perceptions of vulnerability in the
Page 27 and 28: Energy and Tourism Tourism is an in
Page 29 and 30: Reviewing and considering the feasi
Page 31 and 32: 4. Local watershed management: supp
Page 33 and 34: Given the importance of tourism to
Page 35 and 36: Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity
Page 37 and 38: terrestrial habitats for the purpos
Page 39 and 40: 1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT The
Page 41 and 42: damages from intense climatic condi
Page 43 and 44: 2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 2.1. Geog
Page 45 and 46: Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product
Page 47 and 48: Figure 2.2.1 shows a decline in per
Page 49 and 50: oom for expansion of the fin fisher
Page 51 and 52: The CPA points out that the all-inc
Page 53 and 54: Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest ye
Page 55 and 56: GCM projections of future rainfall
Page 57 and 58: Table 3.3.4: GCM and RCM projected
Page 59 and 60: Relative humidity data has not been
Page 61: Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM proje
Page 65 and 66: Annual DJF MAM JJA SON Annual DJF M
Page 67 and 68: frequency in the last 1,500 years b
Page 69 and 70: thermal expansion, with only a cons
Page 71 and 72: particularly affected by higher wat
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.1.2: Availability of water
Page 75 and 76: 3). Factors which increase the vuln
Page 77 and 78: 4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution
Page 79 and 80: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.2.3: Assessment of CO2 emis
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.2.3: Evolution of electric
Page 85 and 86: - Reduce electricity costs and pric
Page 87 and 88: Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices 1869
Page 89 and 90: Climate policy Figure 4.2.6: Fuel c
Page 91 and 92: taxes can also be a highly transpar
Page 93 and 94: number of potential impacts of clim
Page 95 and 96: 4.3. Agriculture and Food Security
Page 97 and 98: Caicos Islands stems from the fact
Page 99 and 100: Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics re
Page 101 and 102: 2000). Thus, despite the fact that
Page 103 and 104: Table 4.4.3: Reported cases of gast
Page 105 and 106: 4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodive
Page 107 and 108: Table 4.5.1: Turks and Caicos Islan
Page 109 and 110: Status of wetlands Over half of the
Page 111 and 112: and enforcing adequate coastal setb
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Turtle fishery At least two species
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Vulnerability of coral reefs to cli
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Figure 4.5.4: Unusual amount of Sar
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Figure 4.6.1: Grand Turk, The Turks
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Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated wit
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to identify individual properties,
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Figure 4.6.6: Total beach and land
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the tourism sector as well, since t
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Hurricane Irene (2011) Figure 4.7.2
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4.7.3. Vulnerability of the tourism
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greater burden of care as poorer ho
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CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS DIRECT INDIR
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Partnership based on the establishe
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each gender group is of the opinion
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entity. One of the key resources ne
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5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR TH
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The institutional and regulatory fr
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5.1.3. Technology Hydrological and
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equested a rate review to rebalance
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Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emiss
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agree that switching off air condit
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Note: Savings costs of energy effic
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Vast options exist to reduce energy
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5.4. Human Health 5.4.1. Policy The
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Table 5.4.1: Summary effects on the
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weaker social infrastructure. Conti
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end the Turks and Caicos Islands ar
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5.5.3. Technology A high degree of
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Table 5.6.1: Summary of adaptation
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5.6.2. Technology - Soft Engineerin
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5.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster
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Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive
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Related work in needs and vulnerabi
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Early Warning Systems (EWS) An EWS
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50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
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distributions based on the gender o
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significant differences in househol
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Table 5.8.13: Source of food supply
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45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0%
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Social Protection Provision Table 5
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Table 5.8.24: Sample distribution b
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Subsistence Agricultural land (16%)
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Resource Importance River / Stream
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In the event of a hurricane, 90.3%
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Event Hurricane Flooding Storm Surg
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Table 5.8.37: Household Adaptation
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Assessments focussing on the links
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Provide gender disaggregated data a
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Short Term Actions Reassess water p
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Long Term Actions Pursue the concep
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Area Management Foundation (C-CAM)
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6.8. Comprehensive Natural Disaster
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The Fire Service is government-run,
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7. CONCLUSION 7.1. Climate Modellin
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7.3. Energy Supply and Distribution
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7.7. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
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REFERENCES Alcamo, J., Moreno, J. M
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CAREC. (2008a). Caribbean Epidemiol
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Contreras-Lisperguer, R., & de Cuba
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http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUA
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Government of the Turks and Caicos
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Hu, A., Meehl, G., Han, W., & Yin,
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Lime Turks & Caicos Islands. (2011)
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OECD (2010). Taxation, Innovation a
Page 241 and 242:
Stern, N. (2006). The Economics of
Page 243 and 244:
Wetherell, G. (2010). Third Quarter
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