Turks and Caicos Islands

SON
Annual
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Observed
Mean
1970-99
%
Frequency
Turks and Caicos Islands: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes
Observed
Trend
1960-
2006
Change in
frequency
per
decade
3.9. Rainfall Extremes
Projected changes by Projected changes by Projected changes by
the 2020s
the 2050s
the 2080s
Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max
26
Future % frequency Future % frequency
A2
0 0 2 0 0 0
A1B
0 0 1 0 0 1
B1
0 0 3 0 0 1
Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p)
A2
0 1 2 0 0 1
A1B
0 1 2 0 0 1
B1
0 1 4 0 1 2
A2
0 1 2 0 0 0
A1B
0 1 2 0 0 1
B1
0 1 4 0 1 2
A2
0 1 2 0 0 0
A1B
0 0 2 0 0 0
B1
0 1 5 0 1 2
A2
0 0 1 0 0 0
A1B
0 0 0 0 0 0
B1
0 0 0 0 0 0
A2
0 0 1 0 0 0
A1B
0 0 2 0 0 1
B1
0 0 2 0 0 2
Changes in rainfall extremes, based on 1- and 5-day rainfall totals, as well as exceedance of a relative
threshold for ‘heavy’ rain, were examined. ‘Heavy’ rain is determined by the daily rainfall totals that are
exceeded on 5% of wet days in the ‘current’ climate or reference period, relative to the particular climate
of a specific region or season.
There is insufficient daily observational data to identify trends in rainfall extremes in Turks and Caicos
Islands.
GCM projections of rainfall extremes are mixed across the ensemble of models, ranging from both
decreases and increases of all measures of extreme rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall that falls in
heavy events decreases in most model projections, changing by ‐17% to +5% by the 2080s.
Maximum 1-day rainfall shows no change by the 2080s according to the median ensemble projections, but
with wide variations across the GCM ensemble. Maximum 5‐day rainfall tends to decrease in model
projections ranging from ‐18 to +29 mm annually by the 2080s.