Turks and Caicos Islands

Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Turks and Caicos Islands
Observed
Mean
1970-99
Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Temperature
Observed
Trend
1960-
2006
Projected changes by Projected changes by Projected changes by
the 2020s
the 2050s
the 2080s
Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max
(˚C) (change
in˚C per
decade)
Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C
A2 0.3 0.7 1 0.9 1.5 2 2.1 2.6 3.3
Annual 26.3 0.12* A1B 0.3 0.8 1.1 1 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.2 2.9
B1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 1 1.4 2.1
A2 0.3 0.7 1 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.3
DJF 24.6 0.14* A1B 0.3 0.7 1.2 1 1.4 1.9 1.4 2.2 2.9
B1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.5 2.1
A2 0.2 0.7 1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.4 3.2
MAM 25.4 0.09* A1B 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 2 2.9
B1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.8
A2 0.3 0.7 1 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.5
JJA 27.9 0.14* A1B 0.3 0.8 1.1 1 1.6 2 1.4 2.2 2.9
B1 0.2 0.6 1 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.4 2.1
A2 0.5 0.8 1 1.1 1.6 2 2.3 2.7 3.2
SON 27.3 0.15* A1B 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 2.4 3
B1 0.5 0.8 1 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.3
Table 3.2.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Turks and Caicos Islands under the A2 scenario
3.3. Precipitation
16
Projected changes by the 2080s
SRES A2
Min Median Max
GCM Ensemble Range 2.1
Change in ˚C
2.6 3.3
Annual RCM (ECHAM4)
2.9
RCM (HadCM3)
2.3
GCM Ensemble Range 1.9 2.6 3.3
DJF RCM (ECHAM4)
2.6
RCM (HadCM3)
2.7
GCM Ensemble Range 1.9 2.4 3.2
MAM RCM (ECHAM4)
2.6
RCM (HadCM3)
2.4
GCM Ensemble Range 2.1 2.6 3.5
JJA RCM (ECHAM4)
3.1
RCM (HadCM3)
2
GCM Ensemble Range 2.3 2.7 3.2
SON RCM (ECHAM4)
3.2
RCM (HadCM3)
2.2
Gridded observations of rainfall over Turks and Caicos Islands do not show statistically significant trends
over the period 1960-2006. Long-term trends are difficult to identify due to the large inter-annual
variability in rainfall in Turks and Caicos Islands.