You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
GCM projections of future rainfall for <strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong> Isl<strong>and</strong>s span both overall increases <strong>and</strong> decreases<br />
with wide variations, but tend towards decreases in more models. Projected rainfall changes in annual<br />
rainfall range from -29 to +8 mm per month (-63% to +10%) by the 2080s across three emissions scenarios.<br />
The overall decreases in annual rainfall projected by GCMs occur largely through decreased JJA rainfall, but<br />
these changes are less consistent between models.<br />
RCM projections of rainfall for <strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong> Isl<strong>and</strong>s are strongly influenced by the driving GCM<br />
providing boundary conditions. Changes projected by the RCM driven by HadCM3 are generally greater<br />
than ECHAM4-driven simulations. Driven by ECHAM4, RCM rainfall projections indicate large increases in<br />
DJF <strong>and</strong> SON <strong>and</strong> a decrease in JJA resulting in an increase of 5 mm (2%) in total annual rainfall. Driven by<br />
HadCM3, RCM projects large decreases in all seasons except DJF resulting in a large decrease in total annual<br />
rainfall (-44 mm / -35%).<br />
Table 3.3.1: Observed <strong>and</strong> GCM projected changes in precipitation for <strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong> Isl<strong>and</strong>s<br />
Observed<br />
Mean<br />
1970-99<br />
(mm per<br />
month)<br />
<strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong> Isl<strong>and</strong>s: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation<br />
Observed<br />
Trend<br />
1960-<br />
2006<br />
(change in<br />
mm per<br />
decade)<br />
Projected changes by Projected changes by Projected changes by<br />
the 2020s<br />
the 2050s<br />
the 2080s<br />
Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max<br />
Change in mm per<br />
month<br />
17<br />
Change in mm per<br />
month<br />
Change in mm per<br />
month<br />
A2 -7 0 3 -20 -3 6 -29 -6 3<br />
Annual 77.1 0.2 A1B -14 -1 10 -22 -2 9 -22 -5 4<br />
B1 -14 -3 5 -15 -2 6 -19 -4 8<br />
A2 -10 0 5 -14 0 20 -13 1 28<br />
DJF 52.9 -0.3 A1B -6 0 23 -15 0 18 -10 0 18<br />
B1 -9 0 6 -7 -2 20 -11 1 11<br />
A2 -12 -1 7 -23 -7 7 -29 -10 1<br />
MAM 80.8 1.5 A1B -13 1 7 -13 -4 15 -17 -7 1<br />
B1 -11 -3 2 -12 -3 16 -15 -2 12<br />
A2 -19 -6 5 -34 -10 13 -52 -16 0<br />
JJA 79 0.4 A1B -26 -8 10 -32 -11 9 -60 -15 2<br />
B1 -21 -4 21 -22 -6 2 -27 -8 9<br />
A2 -15 0 22 -23 -2 33 -41 -1 18<br />
SON 96.3 0.4 A1B -19 -4 25 -29 0 52 -31 1 25<br />
B1 -18 -4 9 -22 -6 17 -23 -4 22
Change language