Turks and Caicos Islands

carry the economic burden of households, which is often meagrely supported by jobs with a low income
and based in the informal sector. These factors place them, and those that they are responsible for, at
greater risk to natural events than men (Buvinic et al., 1999).
Section 3 of this document outlines the likely changes to occur for given climate and ocean variables for the
Turks and Caicos Islands over the next few decades. The outputs produced by both the RCM and GCMs for
future weather and climate scenarios in the Turks and Caicos Islands are very similar to those of other
islands in the Caribbean. Some of the more outstanding similarities include:
1. An increase in the mean annual temperature and the number of ‘hot’ days and nights
2. The likelihood of more intense cyclones resulting from warmer sea surface temperatures (although
this is not conclusive).
3. The likelihood of a decline in mean annual rainfall, and the total rainfall experienced during heavy
rainfall events.
4. The relative disappearance of ‘cold’ days and nights by the 2080s.
5. Gradual sea level rise, which has been observed over previous years and therefore is expected to
continue, but uncertainty remains with the actual rates of increase.
These projections are associated with different degrees of certainty, based on the availability of observed
(recorded) data, the outputs from model simulations, and the fact that some physical processes are too
complex to be represented by these models. However, some of the trends indicated in these projections
(up to 2080) are currently being observed, and therefore the likelihood of these projections taking effect
should not be discounted. Likely outcomes in climate based on these projections include hotter, drier
conditions and variable rainfall with implications for drought-like conditions.
In light of these changes in climate, the risks to vulnerable social and livelihood groups increase. Hurricanes
in particular are of great concern, and the potential impacts of a major hurricane especially on the local
tourism industry are tremendous. Hurricanes are the most destructive climate events to affect the region,
and with the likelihood of stronger events, their impact will be more widespread and severe.
Other inferences can be made based on the projections outputted by both the RCM and GCMs. What is
certain is that current climate trends will change in one way or another, and will therefore affect those
industries and activities that are climate-sensitive and strongly dependent on natural resources, and in the
case of the Turks and Caicos Islands, tourism is a national lifeline. Undoubtedly, a number of vulnerable
sectors and subsectors are important to the subsistence of especially poorer households. However, gradual
weather changes, sea level rise and the potential for increasing intensity (and possibly frequency which,
although inconclusive, should remain a priority concern and be treated as such) of extreme weather events
will have substantial effects on livelihood assets and activities in the Turks and Caicos Islands – with
implications for sector contributions to GDP, employment, existing poverty levels and other facets of
economic and social development (Alcamo, et al., 2007; Wilbanks, et al., 2007).
Overview
4.8.3. Case Study: The Lower Bight Community, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos
Islands
Lower Bight on the island of Providenciales was selected as the community in which to implement the
Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology developed by The CARIBSAVE
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