Turks and Caicos Islands

y drought conditions; and salt water is likely to cause damage to infrastructure (Byron, 2011). Natural
hazards including tropical storms and hurricanes exacerbate this situation.
In the Country Poverty Assessment of Turks and Caicos, three major water related problems were
identified: (i) problematic water supply in some communities; (ii) a high variability in the quality of water
available to population; and (iii) a lack of knowledge in testing and protecting water quality (Kairi
Consultants Limited, 2000a). TCI is vulnerable to small changes in climate, particularly since the focus of
development in the islands is located in the coastal zone, where potential climate change impacts such as
sea level rise and a higher frequency of hurricanes, storms and flooding are more likely (Climate Change
Committee, 2011).
Drought in the Turks and Caicos Islands
Decreases in precipitation are projected for many sub-tropical areas including the Caribbean region, which
is also likely to experience shorter rainy seasons and precipitation in shorter duration, intense events
interspersed with longer periods of relatively dry conditions (Bates et al., 2008). A significant increase in the
number of consecutive dry days has been found for the Caribbean region (Bates et al., 2008), indicating
that periods of drought are becoming increasingly common. As a result, drought management will become
a progressively large challenge, requiring a multifocal approach due to its non-structural nature and
complex spatial patterns. This makes it a difficult task to find suitable solutions to adapt to the problems
created by drought conditions (e.g. Campbell et al., 2011). Good management of the water supply system is
critical for drought mitigation, needing careful operation of water supply infrastructure to be effective (e.g.
Fang et al., 2011; Hyde et al., 1994; Shih and Revelle, 1994). Measures taken to mitigate the effects of
drought conditions in the Caribbean region have included the use of truck water for in-country
redistribution, the rotation of water supply, increased desalination, and the importation of water from
other countries using barges.
The Climate Change Committee (2011) established that rising temperatures may promote more frequent
fires and lead to an increased loss of water due to evaporation. Changes in rainfall patterns may lead to a
decrease in fresh water availability and more frequent and severe droughts, leading to a loss of crops and
livestock. As a result, it is likely that the islands will increase the dependency on desalinated water, leading
to an increase in the cost of water supply (Climate Change Committee, 2011). Drought conditions will also
affect the ability of the country to harvest rainwater (Byron, 2011).
Coastal Aquifers and the Potential for Saline Intrusion
Coastal aquifers are threatened by seawater intrusion with rising sea levels, exacerbated by a decrease in
groundwater recharge through overabstraction and decreasing precipitation (Bates et al., 2008; Lewsey et
al., 2004; Werner and Simmons, 2009). A rise in sea level as low as 0.1 m may cause a decreases in aquifer
thickness of more than 10 m (Bobba et al., 2002), leading to substantial declines in freshwater availability.
Reductions in groundwater recharge to inland aquifers can also lead to seawater intrusion if they are next
to saline aquifers (Chen et al., 2004), indicating a potential knock-on effect where coastal aquifers become
saline due to sea-level rise, then neighbouring aquifers experience saltwater intrusion during dry periods
with low groundwater recharge. With global average sea levels found to be rising at a rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm
per year (White et al., 2005) and with rates increasing (Church and White, 2006), coastal aquifers may be
severely impacted by saltwater intrusion and many countries may lose vital water resources.
Storm surges from hurricanes can cause extensive damage to aquifers (Anderson, 2002), the risk of which
will increase as higher sea-levels reduce the level of the storm-surge required for contamination to occur.
In the Caribbean, sea levels have been observed to have risen between 1.5 and 3 mm per year (see Section
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