Turks and Caicos Islands

1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published in 2007,
provides undisputable evidence that human activities are the major reason for the rise in greenhouse gas
emissions and changes in the global climate system (IPCC, Summary for Policymakers. , 2007a). Notably,
climate change is ongoing, with “observational evidence from all continents and oceans … that many
natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases” (IPCC,
2007b, p. 8). Observed and projected climate change will in turn affect socio-economic development
(Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009; Stern, 2006) with some 300,000 deaths per year currently being
attributed to climate change (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). Mitigation (to reduce the speed at which
the global climate changes) as well as adaptation (to cope with changes that are inevitable) are thus of
great importance (Parry, et al., 2009).
The IPCC (IPCC, 2007a, p. 5) notes that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is now evident
from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
and ice and rising global average sea level”. Climate change has started to affect many natural systems,
including hydrological systems (increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge, warming of lakes and
rivers affecting thermal structure and water quality), terrestrial ecosystems (earlier spring events including
leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying, biodiversity decline, and pole ward and upward shifts in the
ranges of plants and animal species), as well as marine systems (rising water temperatures, changes in ice
cover, salinity, acidification, oxygen levels and circulation, affecting shifts in the ranges and changes of
algae, plankton and fish abundance).
The IPCC (IPCC, 2007b) also notes that small islands are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate
change, including sea-level rise and extreme events. Deterioration in coastal conditions is expected to
affect fisheries and tourism, with sea-level rise being “expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge,
erosion and other coastal hazards, threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support
the livelihood of island communities” (IPCC, 2007b, p. 15). Climate change is projected to reduce water
resources in the Caribbean to a point where these become insufficient to meet demand, at least in periods
with low rainfalls (IPCC, 2007b). Together, these changes are projected to severely affect socio-economic
development and well-being in the world (Stern, 2006), with the number of climate change related deaths
expected to rise to 500,000 per year globally by 2020 (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). However, not all
regions are equally vulnerable to climate change. The Caribbean needs to be seen as one of the most
vulnerable regions, due to their relative affectedness by climate change, but also in terms of their capacity
to adapt (Bueno, Herzfeld, Stanton, & Ackerman, 2008). This should be seen in the light of (Dulal, Shah, &
Ahmad, 2009, p. 371) conclusion that:
If the Caribbean countries fail to adapt, they are likely to take direct and substantial
economic hits to their most important industry sectors such as tourism, which depends
on the attractiveness of their natural coastal environments, and agriculture (including
fisheries), which are highly climate sensitive sectors. By no incidence, these two sectors
are the highest contributors to employment in the majority of these countries and
significant losses or economic downturn attendant to inability to adapt to climate
change will not increase unemployment but have potentially debilitating social and
cultural consequences to communities.
Climate change has, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4 th
Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007b), been high on the global political agenda. The most recent UN Conference
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