Turks and Caicos Islands

More documents

Recommendations

Info

3. CLIMATE MODELLING 3.1. Introduction to Climate Modelling Results This summary of climate change information for The Turks and Caicos is derived from a combination of recently observed climate data sources, and climate model projections of future scenarios using both a General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble of 15 models and the Regional Climate Model (RCM), PRECIS. General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide global simulations of future climate under prescribed greenhouse gas scenarios. These models are proficient in simulating the large scale circulation patterns and seasonal cycles of the world’s climate, but operate at coarse spatial resolution (grid boxes are typically around 2.5 degrees latitude and longitude). This limited resolution hinders the ability for the model to represent the finer scale characteristics of a region’s topography, and many of the key climatic processes which determine its weather and climate characteristics. Over the Caribbean, this presents significant problems as most of the small islands are too small to feature as a land mass at GCM resolution. Regional Climate Models (RCMS) are often nested in GCMs to simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale over a small region of the world, acting to ‘downscale’ the GCM projections and provide a better physical representation of the local climate of that region. RCMs enable the investigation of climate changes at a sub-GCM-grid scale, as such changes in the dynamic climate processes at a community scale or tourist destination can be projected. For each of a number of climate variables (average temperature, average rainfall, average wind speed, relative humidity, sea-surface temperature, sunshine hours, extreme temperatures, and extreme rainfalls) the results of GCM multi-model projections under three emissions scenarios at the country scale, and RCM simulations from a single model driven by two different GCMs for a single emissions scenario at the destination scale, are examined. Where available, observational data sources are drawn upon to identify changes that are already occurring in the climates at both the country and destination scale. In this study, RCM simulations from PRECIS, driven by two different GCMs (ECHAM4 and HadCM3) are used to look at projected climate for each country and at the community level. Combining the results of GCM and RCM experiments allows the use of high-resolution RCM projections in the context of the uncertainty margins that the 15-model GCM ensemble provides. The following projections are based on the IPCC standard ‘marker’ scenarios – A2 (a ‘high’ emissions scenario), A1B (a medium high scenario, where emissions increase rapidly in the earlier part of the century but then plateau in the second half) and B1 (a ‘low’ emissions scenario). Climate projections are examined under all three scenarios from the multi-model GCM ensemble, but at present, results from the regional models are only available for scenario A2. Table 3.1.1 outlines the time line on which various temperature thresholds are projected to be reached under the various scenarios according to the IPCC. 14
Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are exceeded in the 41 projections* SRES Scenario 1.5C Threshold 2.0C Threshold 2.5C Threshold Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Earliest Latest A1B 2023 2050 2038 2070 2053 Later than 2100 A2 2024 2043 2043 2060 2056 2077 B1 2027 2073 2049 Later than 2100 2068 Later than 2100 *NB: In some cases the threshold is not reached prior to 2100, the latest date for which the projections are available. The potential changes in hurricane and tropical storm frequency and intensity, sea-level rise (SLR), and storm surge incidence are also examined for the Caribbean region. For these variables, existing material in the literature is examined in order to assess the potential changes affecting the tourist destinations. 3.2. Temperature Observations from the gridded temperature datasets indicate that mean annual temperatures over Turks and Caicos Islands have increased at an average rate of 0.12˚C per decade over the period 1960-2006. The observed increases have been more rapid in SON at the rate of 0.15˚C per decade. General Circulation Model (GCM) projections from a 15-model ensemble indicate that Turks and Caicos Islands can be expected to warm by 0.7˚C to 2.0˚C by the 2050s and 1.0˚C to 3.3˚C by the 2080s, relative to the 1970-1999 mean. The range of projections across the 15 models for any one emissions scenario spans around 1-1.5˚C. Projected mean temperature increase is similar throughout the year. Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate comparable to higher increases in temperatures over Turks and Caicos Islands compared to the GCM ensemble median projections for the A2 scenario. In particular, RCM simulations driven by ECHAM4 indicate temperature increases that are higher than the GCM ensemble median projections in all seasons. RCM projections indicate increases of 2.9˚C and 2.3˚C in mean annual temperatures by the 2080s, when driven by the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 respectively, compared with GCM ensemble projections of 2.1-3.3˚C for that period. Temperature increases in JJA and SON as projected by the RCM simulation driven by HadCM3 are lower than the lowest GCM ensemble projections. The improved spatial resolution in the RCM allows the land mass of the larger Caribbean islands to be represented, whilst the region is represented only by ‘ocean’ grid boxes at GCM resolution. Land surfaces warm more rapidly than ocean due to their lower capacity to absorb heat energy, and we therefore see more rapid warming over Turks and Caicos Islands in RCM projections than in GCMs. 15
Page 1 and 2: Caribbean Regional Headquarters Has
Page 3 and 4: 4.3.4. Women and Youth in TCI Agric
Page 5 and 6: 6.3. Energy Supply and Distribution
Page 7 and 8: Figure 5.8.2: Relationship status o
Page 9 and 10: Table 4.1.2: Availability of water
Page 11 and 12: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The CARIBSAVE Part
Page 13 and 14: The field work components of the re
Page 15 and 16: LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Page 17 and 18: UKOT ----------------- United Kingd
Page 19 and 20: Overview Of Climate Change Issues I
Page 21 and 22: The field study sites include notab
Page 23 and 24: coastal infrastructure and settleme
Page 25 and 26: Perceptions of vulnerability in the
Page 27 and 28: Energy and Tourism Tourism is an in
Page 29 and 30: Reviewing and considering the feasi
Page 31 and 32: 4. Local watershed management: supp
Page 33 and 34: Given the importance of tourism to
Page 35 and 36: Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity
Page 37 and 38: terrestrial habitats for the purpos
Page 39 and 40: 1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT The
Page 41 and 42: damages from intense climatic condi
Page 43 and 44: 2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 2.1. Geog
Page 45 and 46: Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product
Page 47 and 48: Figure 2.2.1 shows a decline in per
Page 49 and 50: oom for expansion of the fin fisher
Page 51: The CPA points out that the all-inc
Page 55 and 56: GCM projections of future rainfall
Page 57 and 58: Table 3.3.4: GCM and RCM projected
Page 59 and 60: Relative humidity data has not been
Page 61 and 62: Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM proje
Page 63 and 64: Annual Table 3.8.1: Observed and GC
Page 65 and 66: Annual DJF MAM JJA SON Annual DJF M
Page 67 and 68: frequency in the last 1,500 years b
Page 69 and 70: thermal expansion, with only a cons
Page 71 and 72: particularly affected by higher wat
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.1.2: Availability of water
Page 75 and 76: 3). Factors which increase the vuln
Page 77 and 78: 4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution
Page 79 and 80: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Page 81 and 82: Table 4.2.3: Assessment of CO2 emis
Page 83 and 84: Figure 4.2.3: Evolution of electric
Page 85 and 86: - Reduce electricity costs and pric
Page 87 and 88: Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices 1869
Page 89 and 90: Climate policy Figure 4.2.6: Fuel c
Page 91 and 92: taxes can also be a highly transpar
Page 93 and 94: number of potential impacts of clim
Page 95 and 96: 4.3. Agriculture and Food Security
Page 97 and 98: Caicos Islands stems from the fact
Page 99 and 100: Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics re
Page 101 and 102: 2000). Thus, despite the fact that
Page 103 and 104:
Table 4.4.3: Reported cases of gast
Page 105 and 106:
4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodive
Page 107 and 108:
Table 4.5.1: Turks and Caicos Islan
Page 109 and 110:
Status of wetlands Over half of the
Page 111 and 112:
and enforcing adequate coastal setb
Page 113 and 114:
Turtle fishery At least two species
Page 115 and 116:
Vulnerability of coral reefs to cli
Page 117 and 118:
Figure 4.5.4: Unusual amount of Sar
Page 119 and 120:
Figure 4.6.1: Grand Turk, The Turks
Page 121 and 122:
Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated wit
Page 123 and 124:
to identify individual properties,
Page 125 and 126:
Figure 4.6.6: Total beach and land
Page 127 and 128:
the tourism sector as well, since t
Page 129 and 130:
Hurricane Irene (2011) Figure 4.7.2
Page 131 and 132:
4.7.3. Vulnerability of the tourism
Page 133 and 134:
greater burden of care as poorer ho
Page 135 and 136:
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS DIRECT INDIR
Page 137 and 138:
Partnership based on the establishe
Page 139 and 140:
each gender group is of the opinion
Page 141 and 142:
entity. One of the key resources ne
Page 143 and 144:
5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR TH
Page 145 and 146:
The institutional and regulatory fr
Page 147 and 148:
5.1.3. Technology Hydrological and
Page 149 and 150:
equested a rate review to rebalance
Page 151 and 152:
Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emiss
Page 153 and 154:
agree that switching off air condit
Page 155 and 156:
Note: Savings costs of energy effic
Page 157 and 158:
Vast options exist to reduce energy
Page 159 and 160:
5.4. Human Health 5.4.1. Policy The
Page 161 and 162:
Table 5.4.1: Summary effects on the
Page 163 and 164:
weaker social infrastructure. Conti
Page 165 and 166:
end the Turks and Caicos Islands ar
Page 167 and 168:
5.5.3. Technology A high degree of
Page 169 and 170:
Table 5.6.1: Summary of adaptation
Page 171 and 172:
5.6.2. Technology - Soft Engineerin
Page 173 and 174:
5.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster
Page 175 and 176:
Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive
Page 177 and 178:
Related work in needs and vulnerabi
Page 179 and 180:
Early Warning Systems (EWS) An EWS
Page 181 and 182:
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
Page 183 and 184:
distributions based on the gender o
Page 185 and 186:
significant differences in househol
Page 187 and 188:
Table 5.8.13: Source of food supply
Page 189 and 190:
45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0%
Page 191 and 192:
Social Protection Provision Table 5
Page 193 and 194:
Table 5.8.24: Sample distribution b
Page 195 and 196:
Subsistence Agricultural land (16%)
Page 197 and 198:
Resource Importance River / Stream
Page 199 and 200:
In the event of a hurricane, 90.3%
Page 201 and 202:
Event Hurricane Flooding Storm Surg
Page 203 and 204:
Table 5.8.37: Household Adaptation
Page 205 and 206:
Assessments focussing on the links
Page 207 and 208:
Provide gender disaggregated data a
Page 209 and 210:
Short Term Actions Reassess water p
Page 211 and 212:
Long Term Actions Pursue the concep
Page 213 and 214:
Area Management Foundation (C-CAM)
Page 215 and 216:
6.8. Comprehensive Natural Disaster
Page 217 and 218:
The Fire Service is government-run,
Page 219 and 220:
7. CONCLUSION 7.1. Climate Modellin
Page 221 and 222:
7.3. Energy Supply and Distribution
Page 223 and 224:
7.7. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
Page 225 and 226:
REFERENCES Alcamo, J., Moreno, J. M
Page 227 and 228:
CAREC. (2008a). Caribbean Epidemiol
Page 229 and 230:
Contreras-Lisperguer, R., & de Cuba
Page 231 and 232:
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUA
Page 233 and 234:
Government of the Turks and Caicos
Page 235 and 236:
Hu, A., Meehl, G., Han, W., & Yin,
Page 237 and 238:
Lime Turks & Caicos Islands. (2011)
Page 239 and 240:
OECD (2010). Taxation, Innovation a
Page 241 and 242:
Stern, N. (2006). The Economics of
Page 243 and 244:
Wetherell, G. (2010). Third Quarter
show all

Turks and Caicos Islands

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?