Turks and Caicos Islands

Table 3.10.1: Changes in Near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms in under global
warming scenarios
Reference GHG
scenario
Knutson et al.
(2008)
Knutson and Tuleya
(2004)
Type of Model Domain Change in nearstorm
intensity
rainfall
A1B Regional Climate Model Atlantic (+37, 23, 10)%
when averaged
within 50, 100
and 400 km of
the storm centre
1% per
year CO 2
increase
9 GCMs + nested regional
model with 4 different
moist convection
schemes.
Oouchi et al. (2006) A1B High Resolution GCM Global
3.11. Sea Level Rise
30
Change in peak
wind intensity
+2.9%
Global +12-33% +5-7%
N/A +14%
North Atlantic +20%
Observed records of sea level from tidal gauges and satellite altimeter readings indicate a global mean SLR
of 1.8 (+/- 0.5) mm yr -1 over the period 1961-2003 (Bindoff et al., 2007). Acceleration in this rate of
increase over the course of the 20 th Century has been detected in most regions (Woodworth et al., 2009;
Church and White, 2006).
There are large regional variations superimposed on the mean global SLR rate. Observations from tidal
gauges surrounding the Caribbean basin (Table 3.11.1) indicate that SLR in the Caribbean is broadly
consistent with the global trend (Table 3.11.2).
Table 3.11.1: Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin
Tidal Gauge Station Observed trend (mm yr -1 ) Observation period
Bermuda 2.04 (+/- 0.47) 1932-2006
San Juan, Puerto Rico 1.65 (+/- 0.52) 1962-2006
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba 1.64 (+/- 0.80) 1973-1971
Miami Beach, Florida 2.39 (+/1 0.43) 1931-1981
Vaca Key, Florida 2.78 (+/- 0.60) 1971-2006
(Source: NOAA, 2009)
Projections of future SLR associated with climate change have recently become a topic of heated debate in
scientific research. The IPCC’s AR4 report summarised a range of SLR projections under each of its standard
scenarios, for which the combined range spans 0.18-0.59 m by 2100 relative to 1980-1999 levels (see
ranges for each scenario in Table 3.11.2). These estimates have since been challenged for being too
conservative and a number of studies (e.g. Rahmstorf, 2007; Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006; Horton et
al., 2008) have provided evidence to suggest that their uncertainty range should include a much larger
upper limit.
Total sea level rises associated with atmospheric warming appear largely through the combined effects of
two main mechanisms: (a) thermal expansion (the physical response of the water mass of the oceans to
atmospheric warming) and (b) ice-sheet, ice-cap and glacier melt. Whilst the rate of thermal expansion of
the oceans in response to a given rate of temperature increase is projected relatively consistently between
GCMs, the rate of ice melt is much more difficult to predict due to our incomplete understanding of icesheet
dynamics. The IPCC total SLR projections comprise of 70-75% (Meehl et al., 2007a) contribution from