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Table 3.5.2: GCM <strong>and</strong> RCM projected changes in <strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong> Isl<strong>and</strong>s under the A2 scenario<br />
GCM Ensemble Range<br />
Annual RCM (ECHAM4)<br />
RCM (HadCM3)<br />
GCM Ensemble Range<br />
DJF RCM (ECHAM4)<br />
RCM (HadCM3)<br />
GCM Ensemble Range<br />
MAM RCM (ECHAM4)<br />
RCM (HadCM3)<br />
GCM Ensemble Range<br />
JJA RCM (ECHAM4)<br />
RCM (HadCM3)<br />
GCM Ensemble Range<br />
SON RCM (ECHAM4)<br />
RCM (HadCM3)<br />
3.6. Sunshine Hours<br />
22<br />
Projected changes by the 2080s<br />
SRES A2<br />
Min Median Max<br />
Change in %<br />
1.2<br />
0.9<br />
1.6<br />
0.9<br />
0.1<br />
1<br />
1.3<br />
1.7<br />
1.7<br />
1.5<br />
0.5<br />
2.4<br />
1.2<br />
1.1<br />
1.2<br />
The number of ‘sunshine hours’ per day are calculated by applying the average clear-sky fraction from<br />
cloud observations to the number of daylight hours for the latitude of the location <strong>and</strong> the time of the year.<br />
The observed number of sunshine hours, based on ISCCP satellite observations of cloud coverage, indicates<br />
statistically significant increases in annual sunshine hours in <strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong> Isl<strong>and</strong>s by 0.57 hours per<br />
decade over the period 1983-2001. The strongest <strong>and</strong> statistically significant increase is seen In JJA at the<br />
rate of 0.98 hours per decade.<br />
The number of sunshine hours is projected to increase slightly into the 21 st century in <strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong><br />
Isl<strong>and</strong>s by most GCMs, particularly in wet season reflecting reduction in average cloud fractions. The model<br />
ensemble, however, spans both increases <strong>and</strong> decreases in all seasons <strong>and</strong> across emissions scenarios.<br />
Changes in annual average sunshine hours span -0.3 to +1.2 hours per day by 2080s under scenario A2. The<br />
median increases projected by the GCM ensemble are large in JJA, but with changes spanning -0.5 to +1.7<br />
hours per day.<br />
Comparison between GCM <strong>and</strong> RCM projections of sunshine hours for <strong>Turks</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Caicos</strong> Isl<strong>and</strong>s shows that<br />
the RCM projections generally lie toward the higher end of the range of changes projected by the GCM<br />
ensemble. RCM projections indicate increases of roughly an hour per day in mean annual sunshine hours by<br />
the 2080s. Both RCM simulations indicate large increases in sunshine hours in JJA (1.4-2.9 hours per day),<br />
which is in agreement with the GCM projections. These increases are particularly large in HadCM3-driven<br />
RCM simulation than the ECHAM4-driven simulation.
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