Turks and Caicos Islands

damages from intense climatic conditions have cost the region in excess of half a trillion US dollars (CCCCC,
2009).
1.1. Climate Change Impacts on Tourism
Direct and indirect climatic impacts: The Caribbean’s tourism resources, the primary one being the climate
itself, are all climate sensitive. When beaches and other natural resources undergo negatives changes as a
result of climate and meteorological events, this can affect the appeal of a destination – particularly if these
systems are slow to recover. Further, studies indicate that a shift of attractive climatic conditions for
tourism towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely as a result of climate change. Projected
increases in the frequency or magnitude of certain weather and climate extremes (e.g. heat waves,
droughts, floods, tropical cyclones) as a result of projected climate change will affect the tourism industry
through increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher
operating expenses (e.g. insurance, backup water and power systems, and evacuations), and business
interruptions (Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008).
In contrast to the varied impacts of a changed climate on tourism, the indirect effects of climate-induced
environmental change are likely to be largely negative.
Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility: Scientifically, there is general consensus that ‘serious’
climate policy will be paramount in the transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically
sustainable, as significant technological innovation and behavioural change demand strong regulatory
environments (e.g. Barr et al, 2010; Bows, Anderson, & Footitt, 2009; Hickman & Banister, 2007; Giddens,
2009). As outlined by Scott, Peeters, & Gössling (2010), “serious” would include the endorsement of
national and international mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a global closed emission trading
scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil
fuels, incentives for low-carbon technologies and transport infrastructure, and ultimately, the development
of a vision for a fundamentally different global tourism economy. The Caribbean is likely to be a casualty of
international mitigation policies that discourage long-haul travel.
Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that a combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have
very little impact on arrivals growth to the Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84%
lower than in the business as usual (BAU) scenario (the range attributed to the price elasticities chosen).
The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to
4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price elasticity value used. The study concluded:
It is important to emphasize that the number of arrivals to the region would still be
projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1
million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Pentelow & Scott, 2010).
Indirect societal change impacts: Climate change is believed to pose a risk to future economic growth of
some nations, particularly for those where losses and damages are comparable to a country’s GDP. This
could reduce the means and incentive for long-haul travel and have negative implications for anticipated
future growth in this sector in the Caribbean. Climate change associated security risks have been identified
in a number of regions where tourism is highly important to local-national economies (e.g. Stern, 2006;
Barnett & Adger, 2007; German Advisory Council, 2007; Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008). International
tourists are averse to political instability and social unrest, and negative tourism-demand repercussions for
climate change security hotspots, many of which are believed to be in developing nations, are already
evident (Hall, Waugh, Haine, Robbins, & Khatiwala, 2004).
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