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4.2. Energy Supply <strong>and</strong> Distribution<br />
4.2.1. Background<br />
A global perspective<br />
Tourism is a significant user of energy <strong>and</strong> a concomitant contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases. In<br />
various national comparisons, tourism has been identified as one of the most energy-intense sectors, which<br />
moreover is largely dependent on fossil fuels (e.g. Gössling et al., 2005; Gössling, 2010). Likewise, the<br />
growing energy intensity of economies in the Caribbean has caused concern among researchers (e.g.<br />
Francis et al., 2007).<br />
Globally, tourism causes 5% of emissions of CO2, the most relevant greenhouse gas. Considering the<br />
radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases, tourism’s contribution to global warming increases to 5.2-12.5%<br />
(Scott et al., 2010). The higher share is a result of emissions of nitrous oxides (NOx) as well as water leading<br />
to the formation of aviation-induced clouds (AIC), which cause additional radiative forcing. The range in the<br />
estimate is primarily attributed to uncertainties regarding the role of AIC in trapping heat (Lee et al., 2009).<br />
Aviation is consequently the most important tourism-subsector in terms of its impact on climate change,<br />
accounting for at least 40% (CO2) of the contribution made by tourism to climate change. This is followed<br />
by cars (32% of CO2), accommodation (21%), activities (4%), <strong>and</strong> other transport (3%), notably cruise ships<br />
(1.5%).<br />
In the future to 2050, emissions from tourism are expected to grow considerably. Based on a business-asusual<br />
scenario for 2035, which considers changes in travel frequency, length of stay, travel distance, <strong>and</strong><br />
technological efficiency gains, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) estimate that emissions will increase by about<br />
135% compared to 2005. Similar figures have been presented by the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2009).<br />
Aviation will remain the most important emissions sub-sector of the tourism system, with expected<br />
emissions growth by a factor of 2-3. As global climate policy will seek to achieve considerable emission<br />
reductions in the order of 50% of 1990 emission levels by 2050, aviation, <strong>and</strong> tourism more generally, will<br />
be in stark conflict with achieving global climate goals, possibly accounting for a large share of the<br />
sustainable emissions budget.<br />
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