(Bio)Fueling Injustice? - Europafrica

iofuels between 2003 and 2006 (6.6 million hectares in 4 years), during this period
1.32 million hectares of arable land was put into cultivation each year because of
biofuel production – which was before strong biofuel policies enter into force.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), biofuel production globally has
grown from 16 billion litres in 2000 to more than 100 billion litres in 2010 – a rise of
more than 625% in 10 years. 169 And this pace will accelerate. The consumption of
biofuels in the EU is required to almost triple between 2009 and 2020 to meet EU
targets. 170 At the global level, the EIA gives an estimate of 30 million hectares of land
used for biofuels today, and anticipates that biofuels could, based on optimistic
assumptions about the availability of advanced biofuels, land-use efficiency and yield
improvements, require 100 million hectares of land by 2040. 171 These are much lower
figures than those in the Gallagher report, which – though it is not the most pessimistic
study and it was piloted by the UK Renewable Fuels Agency 172 – took as a basis
between 56 and 166 million hectares of land needed for biofuels by 2020. 173 Even
taking the EIA optimistic figures for comparison purposes, it would mean a 333%
increase of the land needed to produce biofuels in just 40 years – or an increase
comprised between 186% and 553% in 10 years, based on the Gallagher report. The
latter report further indicates that “biofuels appear to represent a substantial share of
the additional land demand to 2020”, as they may represent between 11% and 83% of
the additional global agricultural land requirement forecast. 174 This growth could reach
four digits in Africa as biofuel production was extremely low in 2007. 175
FIGURE 3 DEMAND FOR BIOFUELS (LEFT) AND RESULTING LAND DEMAND (RIGHT)
ACCORDING TO THE EIA 176
From a different perspective, a study ordered by the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting (OPEC) Fund for International Development (OFID) shows a similar fashion.
51