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(Bio)Fueling Injustice? - Europafrica

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ecological and social impacts in producing countries”. 208 Another sign, in the port of<br />

Rotterdam, which represents a useful indicator as it is the largest trading hub and<br />

production site in Europe, 209 biofuel trade flow from outside the EU are expected to<br />

increase. 210<br />

The fact that biofuel imports are important to achieve the EU biofuel strategy has been<br />

recognised by the European Commission itself, which affirmed in a 2011<br />

Communication that “trade among Member States and imports from outside the EU<br />

could reduce costs in the medium to long-run”. 211 In 2010, the Commission announced<br />

that the RED and the revision of the Fuel Directive “will increase imports of biofuels<br />

from developing countries”. 212 In 2007, an EU study event estimated that between 22%<br />

and 54% of EU biofuel needs by 2020 would be met by import. 213 In a paper on food<br />

security, the Commission also acknowledged the direct link between it biofuel policies<br />

and consequences in developing countries:<br />

Incentives for bioenergy production in developing countries are<br />

created by policies in developing and developed countries and<br />

are likely to lead to an increase of international trade in<br />

biomass. 214<br />

Remarkably, the latest previsions of the EU Directorate General for Agriculture and<br />

Rural Development indicates that EU biofuel feedstock production cannot keep<br />

pace with the expected growth in EU demand and net-imports of biofuel feedstocks<br />

will continue to play an important role in the future, particularly for ethanol. 215 For<br />

instance:<br />

The EU is an important net importer of oilseeds, oilseed meals<br />

and vegetable oils. This trade balance is not expected to<br />

improve over the outlook as additional imports are required to<br />

meet biofuel targets. 216<br />

This recognition reflects a broader shift in EU’s policies. The EU indeed originally<br />

intended to produce biomass from “indigenous” sources, but later turned to imports<br />

from developing countries, faced with projections that they EU would have to import<br />

large amount of biofuels by 2030. 217<br />

5.2.2. … in Africa<br />

The question is then to know from where the EU will source its biofuel imports. It<br />

will without a doubt come from a variety of origins. 218 However, African lands will very<br />

likely be particularly impacted. As discussed in part 5.1, evidence indicates that,<br />

globally, land expansion for biofuel production will largely take place in Africa in the<br />

future, and feedstock production for EU imports is likely to follow the same global<br />

direction. The IFPRI estimates, for instance, that Sub Saharan Africa will be amongst<br />

“the most affected” regions by the increase in cropland area due to the biofuels EU<br />

mandate. 219 An authoritative World Bank author equally notes that the EU is expected<br />

to become large biofuel importers in the 2010s because of consumption mandates,<br />

and “African biofuel producers are expected to supply a portion of these imports and<br />

have the advantage of duty-free and quota-free market access.” 220 Due to the nature of<br />

the physical environment and the type of production in Asia, the sustainability criteria<br />

also hinder the potential of Southeast Asian palm oil or biodiesel made from palm oil to<br />

55

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