(Bio)Fueling Injustice? - Europafrica

assumptions, lower estimates still anticipate that the additional demand for land by
2020 due to EU biofuel policies could be around 2 million hectares, 192 or that indirect
change in land use alone could range between 4.7 and 7.9 million hectares. 193 In any
case, it makes no doubt to analysts that expanded biofuel production at the scale
necessary to meet US and EU biofuel mandates will have significant impacts on
land use around the world. 194
As a response, the European Commission argues that “most of the crops used for
biofuel production in the EU are produced in the EU”, apparently assuming that it
would not change in a near future, thus denying an impact on land in Africa. 195
However, still, as of 2008, at least around 20% of EU consumed biofuels were
imported (probably substantially more as Eurostat data does not allow counting all
types of biofuel blends 196 ), and the OECD predicts, at best, and in a scenario where
the RED target is not reached, that imports will remain stable. 197 In addition, biofuels
produced in the EU may be made from feedstock (maize, sugar cane, rapeseed…)
grown outside the EU. Taking that into account, it is at least about 40% of EU
consumed biofuels that were originating from abroad in 2008; keeping in mind
that, again, this figure might be substantially higher due to calculation and data
limitations. 198
And several studies conclude that there are good reasons to think that these imports
will increase in the future in order to meet the EU targets. 199 A World Bank author
qualified the EU assumptions about low imports as “optimistic”, and it was estimated
that the EU could import 53% of its biofuels by 2020. 200 Biofuel production growth in
the EU has already started to slow because of the increased competition with cheap
imports, as recognised by the biofuel industry. 201 Due to the competitive costs of
imported biofuels, even though the EU has an important biofuel production capacity, it
has been considered unrealistic it will fully utilise it. 202 In its analysis of the 27 EU
Member States’ National Renewable Energy Action Plans, the Institute for European
Environmental Policy notes that many states are anticipating to rely on a high
proportion of imports to secure biofuel supplies. 203 The Biofuels Research Advisory
Council – a group of high level experts, mainly from private businesses, set up by the
European Commission to provide input in its biofuel strategy – estimated in 2006 that
half of the EU biofuel supply in 2030 could be covered by imports. 204 A number of
studies ordered by the European Commission, such as the IFPRI modelling, anticipate
that imports will grow strongly. 205 A report for the US Department of Agriculture
equally notes that imports may be underestimated because of data gaps, and
anticipates that imports will grow in the following year –highlighting the only reason
imports might have gone slightly down in 2010-2011 is mainly because of the lack of
supply. 206
Qualitative analyses also concur in this direction. In some countries, like in Germany,
limited land availability has already led to pressures to import biofuels, and the
German government acknowledged that biomass imports will gain importance partly
for competitive purposes because domestic sources are more expensive. 207 A German
government advisory body took the view that “bioenergy usage is currently increasing
food supply shortages and is increasing food and land prices, which can lead to
political instability in the developing and newly developing countries” and that
“[Germany’s] bioenergy imports may not be allowed to create negative economic,
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