FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

FINAL REPORT
Change the Criteria and Deviation Authority
Under a second possible option, the Commission would not change the operating plan, but only change
the criteria listed under Condition (i) in the Orders of Approval. Changes would be made to reflect the
preferences of the environment and recreational boating and perhaps revised criteria for coastal interests.
The Commission would also have to consider the issue of how the Control Board might be restructured to
reflect the views of recreational boating and environmental interests. The Control Board would continue
to deviate, but would use the revised criteria and new deviation guidance. This could be termed the
“Unknown Plan” since there is no way of knowing how the Control Board would make their decisions, or
how they would trade off the interests specified under the criteria. It is well known, through this Study and
the plan formulation process, that certain trade-offs have to be made at certain times among interests and
locations. Under this type of option, there is no way to anticipate what the impacts would be since this
method of regulation would not proceed according to a defined plan, but would be dependent on the ad
hoc decisions of the Control Board of the day.
Implement the Modeled Plan 1958-DD
Another possibility, which some argue is the closest to the present status quo that could be achieved, is to
implement the modeled base case 1958-DD, taking advantage of the new knowledge developed during the
Study. In order to establish a base case, a Plan1958-DD had to be developed that mimicked the decisions
of the Control Board in its deviations as closely as possible. This took into consideration the ways in
which the Control Board has deviated over the past 40 years, with special attention paid to the last decade.
Implementation of this plan would mean that impacts could be modeled and predicted. Actual deviations
by the Control Board would not be required (or at least not as regularly) because they have already been
programmed into the plan. However, the benefits achieved by such a plan would be variable and are
unpredictable at the present time.
88 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows