FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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FINAL REPORT Economic Results All plans produce net economic benefits, with Plan A + providing greater net economic benefits than Plan B + or D + . The following summary of economic results is based on the 50,000-year stochastic evaluation of plans. All economic stochastic results are shown in Table 6. Based on the stochastic analysis, Plan A + produces the highest net economic benefits of the three candidate plans. It has benefits for recreational boaters, hydropower, and small gains for commercial navigation. Plan A + is the only candidate plan that does not create losses for coastal interests on Lake Ontario, but it does cause some increases in flood damages relative to 1958-DD in the lower river. Plan B + provides positive net benefits relative to 1958-DD for hydropower and navigation, but causes damages for Lake Ontario shoreline properties and is associated with some increases in flood damages on the lower St. Lawrence River. Plan B + is slightly worse for recreational boaters than 1958-DD on average, especially above the dam during droughts. Plan D + has some gains in net benefits for boaters, hydropower and commercial navigation. It is very close to Plan 1958-DD with respect to coastal interests. This plan is the most balanced in its distribution of benefits and causes no disproportionate losses to any interest or region. Table 5 summarizes the economic benefits for each plan when evaluated using the historical water supply sequence. Table 6 shows the benefits evaluated over the next 30 years using the stochastic water supplies, with future impacts discounted at a rate of 4% per year. As discussed earlier, only Table 6 provides a credible measure of the impacts. This is particularly true for coastal processes such as erosion and shore protection damages, because the stochastic supplies can be used to estimate the average progression of shoreline movement over the next thirty years. Historical water supplies were used for the evaluation until the stochastic supplies became available in 2005. Table 5 is provided as a reference so that the candidate plans can be compared with earlier plans that were not evaluated using the stochastic supplies. Complete historical results for all plans can be found in Annex 3 to this report. Table 5: Summary Economic Impacts based on Historical Analysis Interest Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E TOTAL $7.51 $6.47 $6.53 -$12.30 Coastal -$0.62 -$1.12 $0.35 -$25.96 Commercial Navigation $0.41 $2.20 $2.31 $4.13 Hydroelectric Power Production $3.50 $5.97 $1.82 $14.16 Municipal & Industrial Water Intake $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Recreational Boating $4.23 -$0.58 $2.04 -$4.64 Notes to Table 5: 1. Figures represent the average annual impact relative to Plan 1958-DD and are reported in millions of U.S. dollars. 2. These are economic results based on the historical supply sequence, with no discounting for coastal erosion and shore protection maintenance. 54 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
Table 6: Economic Results by Interest and Region (based on stochastic supply sequence) Average Annual Net Discounted Benefits Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E Total $6.44 $4.63 $4.48 -$16.36 FINAL REPORT COASTAL -$0.10 -$2.84 -$0.10 -$28.50 Lake Ontario $0.46 -$2.52 -$0.23 -$27.16 Shore Protection Maintenance2 $0.57 -$2.16 -$0.17 -$19.85 Erosion to Unprotected Developed Parcels2 -$0.23 -$0.17 $0.02 -$0.58 Flooding $0.12 -$0.20 -$0.08 -$6.72 Upper St. Lawrence River $0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.75 Flooding $0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.75 Lower St. Lawrence River -$0.57 -$0.31 $0.14 -$0.59 Flooding -$0.51 -$0.22 $0.09 -$0.49 Shore Protection Maintenance3 -$0.06 -$0.09 $0.05 -$0.10 COMMERCIAL NAVIGATION $0.47 $2.13 $1.53 $3.21 Lake Ontario -$0.03 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.02 Seaway $0.57 $2.16 $1.56 $3.21 Montreal down -$0.07 -$0.02 -$0.02 $0.02 HYDROPOWER $2.26 $6.09 $1.64 $12.39 NYPA-OPG (Energy$ + Peaking$) $2.18 $3.87 $0.48 $8.57 Hydro Quebec (Energy $) $0.08 $2.22 $1.16 $3.82 RECREATIONAL BOATING $3.81 -$0.74 $1.42 -$3.46 Above Dam $1.20 -$1.42 -$0.36 -$5.31 Lake Ontario $0.70 -$1.18 -$0.44 -$4.93 Alex Bay $0.47 -$0.29 $0.03 -$0.36 Ogdensburg $0.01 $0.00 $0.01 -$0.07 Lake St. Lawrence $0.01 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 Below Dam $2.61 $0.68 $1.78 $1.85 Lac St. Louis $1.39 $0.49 $0.89 $1.03 Montreal $0.93 $0.19 $0.68 $0.64 Lac St. Pierre $0.29 $0.00 $0.21 $0.18 M&I $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 SL One-time Infrastructure Costs $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 LSL Water Quality Investments $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Notes to Table 6: 1. Figures reflect the average annual impact relative to Plan 1958-DD and are reported in millions of U.S. dollars. Blue represents a positive net benefit relative to 1958-DD and red indicates a negative net benefit relative to 1958-DD. 2. These are economic results based on the 50,000-year stochastic supply series, using a 4% discount rate over a 30-year period, for coastal erosion and shore protection maintenance. 3. The St. Lawrence River Model component of the Shared Vision Model could not be adapted to run the full 50,000-year stochastic series. The results presented represent an average of the historical sequence plus the four 101-year trial segments from the stochastic (S1, S2, S3 and S4 series). Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows 55
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT current operating regi
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FINAL REPORT The current regulation
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FINAL REPORT If none of the candida
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FINAL REPORT Divergent Viewpoints T
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FINAL REPORT Transition to Implemen
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FINAL REPORT 10: Priority Performan
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FINAL REPORT a considerable amount
Page 20 and 21: FINAL REPORT The plan consists of a
Page 22 and 23: FINAL REPORT Figure 2: The Lake Ont
Page 24 and 25: FINAL REPORT 2. Criteria and regula
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Page 28 and 29: FINAL REPORT Independent Review Ind
Page 30 and 31: FINAL REPORT Coastal Processes The
Page 32 and 33: FINAL REPORT The current estimate o
Page 34 and 35: FINAL REPORT Table 2: Economic Perf
Page 36 and 37: FINAL REPORT • Shore protection m
Page 38 and 39: FINAL REPORT Abbreviations STELLA -
Page 40 and 41: FINAL REPORT Approach 2: Optimizati
Page 42 and 43: FINAL REPORT Evaluation and Screeni
Page 44 and 45: FINAL REPORT • All performance in
Page 46 and 47: FINAL REPORT 5. During the Seaway n
Page 48 and 49: FINAL REPORT The programmed Plan 19
Page 50 and 51: FINAL REPORT Other efforts showed t
Page 52 and 53: FINAL REPORT Plan E generally produ
Page 54 and 55: FINAL REPORT An early version of Pl
Page 56 and 57: FINAL REPORT Plan Evaluations and C
Page 58 and 59: FINAL REPORT Table 3: Differences i
Page 60 and 61: Lake Ontario FINAL REPORT Figure 13
Page 62 and 63: St. Lawrence River at Lac St. Louis
Page 64 and 65: FINAL REPORT Figures 29, 30, 32 and
Page 66 and 67: Discharge (m 3 /s) Discharge (tcfs)
Page 68 and 69: Level (m IGLD 1985) Level (ft. IGLD
Page 72 and 73: FINAL REPORT Disproportionate Loss
Page 74 and 75: FINAL REPORT Table 7: Percent Damag
Page 76 and 77: FINAL REPORT Table 8: Environmental
Page 78 and 79: FINAL REPORT Beyond the Summary Num
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Page 84 and 85: FINAL REPORT Coastal damages occur
Page 86 and 87: FINAL REPORT Figure 39: Wetland pla
Page 88 and 89: FINAL REPORT Sensitivity Analyses D
Page 90 and 91: FINAL REPORT Table 11: Summary of E
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Page 94 and 95: FINAL REPORT Climate Change Analysi
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Page 98 and 99: FINAL REPORT Validation The Plan Fo
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Page 106 and 107: FINAL REPORT Through the advocacy o
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Page 114 and 115: FINAL REPORT Institutional issues d
Page 116 and 117: FINAL REPORT Environmental Data and
Page 118 and 119: FINAL REPORT The point of access to
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FINAL REPORT Possible Changes in th
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FINAL REPORT 106 Options for Managi
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FINAL REPORT People and Organizatio
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Technica
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FINAL REPORT Common Data and Inform
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FINAL REPORT BASIN; WATERSHED - The
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FINAL REPORT EROSION - The wearing
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FINAL REPORT INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL
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FINAL REPORT PHYSIOGRAPHY - A descr
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FINAL REPORT TECHNICAL WORK GROUP (
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FINAL REPORT Pacific International
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FINAL REPORT Savage, C. Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Doyon, B., et al. (200
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FINAL REPORT Planning and Managemen
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FINAL REPORT h. Information Managem
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ANNEXES Options for Managing Lake O
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ANNEXES Annex 3 - Plan Descriptions
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ANNEX 1 Annex 1 Pertinent Documents
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The Study Board shall provide optio
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Pertinent Document 2 Plan of Study
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trial regulation plans will need to
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WHEREAS pursuant to the said Applic
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(c) (d) (e) (f) (g) The works shall
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(i) (j) (k) Under regulation, the f
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(b) Control Facilities Adequate con
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ANNEX 2 2 Annex2 Technical Work Gro
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Hydrology, supplies Historical and
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Performance Indicators As noted ear
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Table A-2: Lower St. Lawrence River
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Table A-3: Weighting Scheme for Eco
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In the St. Lawrence River, high spr
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References Armellin, A., Mingelbier
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A. Environmental Contextual Narrati
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types. Analyses of historical aeria
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9. References Listed in text Baedke
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B. Recreational Boating and Tourism
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In addition to recreational boating
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Summary of Key Findings Based on it
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ANNEX 2 Figure B-3: Alexandria Bay
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Participants Recreational Boating a
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Communities along New York waters v
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On the Canadian side, a telephone s
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3. Potentially Significant Benefit
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The average horsepower of motor boa
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Noden, D. and Brown, T. (1975) The
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The Lower St. Lawrence River In com
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Table C-1: Unit Costs for the Const
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Beach Access The beach access perfo
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Since the value of shore protection
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-6: Map of percent
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-8: Map of downstre
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References Baird, W.F. and Associat
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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Given the current land use policies
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. In the case of the shore protecti
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e. With the ever increasing urban d
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8. Risk Assessment/Sensitivity Anal
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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This interest suffered badly during
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5. Key Trends Construction along ri
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Finally, from a computational stand
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D. Commercial Navigation Technical
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More information on the socio-econo
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Participants Commercial Navigation
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. Number of stakeholders The St. La
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g. Trade flows and current market c
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Commercial navigation costs actuall
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5. Key Trends Provided below are hi
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Another adaptive measure to falling
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f. In Montreal, water levels impact
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U.S. Dollars ANNEX 2 Figure E-1: Sh
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Ice formation Ice cover stability i
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Hydroelectric Power Generation Tech
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Regionally, hydropower is seen main
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NYISO administers the Day Ahead Mar
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(b) The hydropower performance indi
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Synapse Energy Economics Inc. devel
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9. References The Hydroelectric Pow
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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Taste and odours performance indica
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Determining a critical elevation fo
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Water level in Pointe-Claire (m) Fi
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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7. Adaptive Behaviours The evaluati
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(d) History of the interest The Akw
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Under this project, the H&H TWG pro
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increases throughout the year. Mixi
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• build operational hydrology for
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Fan, Y. and Fay, D. (2001) Variatio
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I. Common Data Needs Technical Work
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Collection of detailed bathymetric
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• Metadata requirements Metadata
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FTP Support The first component of
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ANNEX 2 Figure J-3: Typical product
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ANNEX 3 Annex 3 Plan Descriptions a
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After discussions, the Plan Formula
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Table A-1: Constraints Applied to E
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Deviations The outflow calculated a
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The following list summarizes the a
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-3: Lake Ontario Av
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Lake Ontario level (m) 1.9 1.8 1.7
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-8: Cumulative Freq
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Total winter flow (10 m 3 /s - quar
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Plan 1958-DD - Appendix Detailed de
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SELECT CASE adjusted supply indicat
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If the Lake Ontario level is greate
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The inflow category (e.g., wet, dry
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Step 5 - Ice limit: Exactly the sam
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-18: Plan A + rule
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Other rules Plan B + has two additi
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Plan D + : Blended Benefits Objecti
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-19A: Lake Ontario
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-20: Lake Ontario s
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-21F: Long Sault Da
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Figure B-23 shows the three benefit
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Score Figure B-25: Score based on t
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Flow Constraints In addition to the
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This procedure is repeated until th
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Reference and Interest Specific Reg
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Plan 1958-D Regulation of Lake Onta
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4. The “I” limits, or ice limit
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Figure B-31 compares the scoring re
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Experimental variations In simpler
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C. Summary Tables of Plan Results T
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Historical Time Series (1900-2000)
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Environmental Results (Historical)
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Stochastic Supply Sequences Economi
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Table C-8: Economic results for can
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Table C-10: Economic results for ca
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Table C-12: Environmental results f
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Table C-14: Environmental results f
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ANNEX 4 Introduction Annex 4 Mitiga
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The great majority of potential act
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Great Lakes Advance Emergency Manag
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“(b) General Plan. (1) The Secret
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Adaptive Management Action Plan (AM
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difference in evaluations. If, for
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Coastal Monitoring Purpose: Monitor
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Adaptive Management Program Summary
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS ABIOTIC - Non-liv
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COASTAL EROSION - The wearing away
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EROSION - The wearing away of land
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HYDROLOGIC MODELING - The use of ph
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MEASURE, STRUCTURAL - Any measure t
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PUBLIC INFORMATION - Activities whe
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SUBSTRATE COMPOSITION - Categorical
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FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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