FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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FINAL REPORT 10: Priority Performance Indicators Identified by Members of the Environmental Technical Work Group based on the Historical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 11: Summary of Economic Results for Four Extreme Stochastic Supply Sequences under Plan 1958-DD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 12: Summary of Overall Economic and Environmental Results for Four Extreme Centuries Selected from the 50,000-year Stochastic Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 13: Summary of Economic Results for Four Climate Change Scenarios under Plan 1958-DD . . . 80 14: Summary of Overall Economic Results by Interest under Four Climate Change Scenarios. . . 81 15: Threshold Water Levels/Flow. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Annexes (Published Separately) 1 Pertinent Documents International Joint Commission Directive to the International Lake Ontario-Study Board, December 2000 Executive Summary, Plan of Study for Criteria Review in the Orders of Approval for Regulation of Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Levels and Flows, September 1999 Orders of Approval, October 29, 1952 as amended by Supplementary Orders dated July 2, 1956 2 Technical Working Group Summaries and Contextual Narratives Environmental Technical Work Group Summary Recreational Boating and Tourism Technical Work Group Summary Coastal Processes Technical Work Group Summary Commercial Navigation Technical Work Group Summary Hydroelectric Power Technical Work Group Summary Domestic, Industrial and Municipal Water Uses Technical Work Group Summary Aboriginal People Contextual Narrative Hydrologic and Hydraulic Evaluation Common Data Needs Information Management 3 Plan Descriptions and Summary Results Plan Formulation Guide: Summary of Constraints and Assumptions for Plan Formulation Regulation Plan Descriptions: Plan 1958-DD – The Baseline Plan Candidate Plans: Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E Reference and Interest Specific Plans: Plan E-Natural Flow Plan Plan 1958-D Plan 1998 OntRip3-Coastal Plan RecBoat-Recreational Boating Plan 4 Mitigation and Adaptive Management Action Plans Mitigation Action Plan Adaptive Management Action Plan xii Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
FINAL REPORT Introduction Lake Ontario receives its water from the four other Great Lakes as well as from drainage from its local watershed, and it discharges water into the St. Lawrence River. In the 1950s, Canada and the United States built the St. Lawrence River Hydropower Project, including a dam stretching across the St. Lawrence River from Massena, New York, to Cornwall, Ontario. The International Joint Commission (IJC) issued “Orders of Approval” for the project in 1952 and supplementary orders in 1956. The Orders established criteria for the operation of the system and also established a Control Board to develop and implement plans of regulation to meet the orders. A series of plans was investigated and implemented, and in 1963, a new plan called “1958-D” was approved and put into use. The plan consists of rules for making releases from the lake every week based on recent water supplies to the lake, how high the lake is, the time of year, ice conditions, Ottawa River flows, river stages, and a series of flow limits which bound other rules. The Orders of Approval allow the Control Board to deviate from the written plan, with Commission approval, particularly under extreme high and low water supply conditions. The Control Board has also been granted authority to institute emergency and discretionary deviations, as detailed later in this report. The Control Board has often deviated from the plan to meet the intent of the Orders of Approval and provide benefits to affected interests. These deviations have been necessitated partly by the changing needs of the system and partly by the wetter and drier supply conditions experienced since 1960 as compared with the period from 1860 to 1954, which the designers used in the development of Plan 1958-D. From time to time, the International Joint Commission considered new plans in an attempt to better meet the criteria in the Orders of Approval or to provide additional benefits to affected interests. The Great Lakes Levels Reference Study (1993) recommended a revision and updating of Plan 1958-D. Subsequently, plans (e.g., Plan 1998) were developed by the Control Board but not implemented by the Commission because they did not adequately accommodate environmental concerns or recreational boating needs and there was a lack of information on impacts on other interests. The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River (LOSLR) Study was designed to address those shortcomings. Unlike the Levels Reference Study, which addressed water management issues on all the Great Lakes, the LOSLR Study focused only on water level changes and flow regulation on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River with the existing dam and other water control structures. Challenges and Opportunities None of the previous attempts to revise the regulation plan for Lake Ontario has been as comprehensive and detailed as this Study. Previous evaluations considered changes to the regulation techniques – modifying outflow limitations and procedures. The Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study approach was significantly different in that an extensive public involvement program played a key role in the development and selection of more comprehensive options. The study conducted a comprehensive evaluation of plan metrics, which are the basis for the development and evaluation of alternative operating plans. It relied on Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows 1
Page 1 and 2: FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
Page 3: FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
Page 6 and 7: FINAL REPORT current operating regi
Page 8 and 9: FINAL REPORT The current regulation
Page 10 and 11: FINAL REPORT If none of the candida
Page 12 and 13: FINAL REPORT Divergent Viewpoints T
Page 14 and 15: FINAL REPORT Transition to Implemen
Page 18 and 19: FINAL REPORT a considerable amount
Page 20 and 21: FINAL REPORT The plan consists of a
Page 22 and 23: FINAL REPORT Figure 2: The Lake Ont
Page 24 and 25: FINAL REPORT 2. Criteria and regula
Page 26 and 27: FINAL REPORT water level and flow d
Page 28 and 29: FINAL REPORT Independent Review Ind
Page 30 and 31: FINAL REPORT Coastal Processes The
Page 32 and 33: FINAL REPORT The current estimate o
Page 34 and 35: FINAL REPORT Table 2: Economic Perf
Page 36 and 37: FINAL REPORT • Shore protection m
Page 38 and 39: FINAL REPORT Abbreviations STELLA -
Page 40 and 41: FINAL REPORT Approach 2: Optimizati
Page 42 and 43: FINAL REPORT Evaluation and Screeni
Page 44 and 45: FINAL REPORT • All performance in
Page 46 and 47: FINAL REPORT 5. During the Seaway n
Page 48 and 49: FINAL REPORT The programmed Plan 19
Page 50 and 51: FINAL REPORT Other efforts showed t
Page 52 and 53: FINAL REPORT Plan E generally produ
Page 54 and 55: FINAL REPORT An early version of Pl
Page 56 and 57: FINAL REPORT Plan Evaluations and C
Page 58 and 59: FINAL REPORT Table 3: Differences i
Page 60 and 61: Lake Ontario FINAL REPORT Figure 13
Page 62 and 63: St. Lawrence River at Lac St. Louis
Page 64 and 65: FINAL REPORT Figures 29, 30, 32 and
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Discharge (m 3 /s) Discharge (tcfs)
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Level (m IGLD 1985) Level (ft. IGLD
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FINAL REPORT Economic Results All p
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FINAL REPORT Disproportionate Loss
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FINAL REPORT Table 7: Percent Damag
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FINAL REPORT Table 8: Environmental
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FINAL REPORT Beyond the Summary Num
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FINAL REPORT Figure 36: Net economi
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FINAL REPORT On Lake Ontario, lakeb
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FINAL REPORT Coastal damages occur
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FINAL REPORT Figure 39: Wetland pla
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FINAL REPORT Sensitivity Analyses D
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FINAL REPORT Table 11: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Figure 43: Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Climate Change Analysi
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FINAL REPORT Table 13: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Validation The Plan Fo
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FINAL REPORT Municipal and Industri
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FINAL REPORT Interest-specific shor
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FINAL REPORT Change the Criteria an
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FINAL REPORT Through the advocacy o
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FINAL REPORT 5. People living along
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FINAL REPORT The Study Board consid
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FINAL REPORT • Ecohydrology is th
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FINAL REPORT Institutional issues d
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Data and
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FINAL REPORT The point of access to
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FINAL REPORT Possible Changes in th
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FINAL REPORT 106 Options for Managi
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FINAL REPORT People and Organizatio
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Technica
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FINAL REPORT Common Data and Inform
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FINAL REPORT BASIN; WATERSHED - The
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FINAL REPORT EROSION - The wearing
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FINAL REPORT INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL
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FINAL REPORT PHYSIOGRAPHY - A descr
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FINAL REPORT TECHNICAL WORK GROUP (
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FINAL REPORT Pacific International
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FINAL REPORT Savage, C. Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Doyon, B., et al. (200
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FINAL REPORT Planning and Managemen
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FINAL REPORT h. Information Managem
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ANNEXES Options for Managing Lake O
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ANNEXES Annex 3 - Plan Descriptions
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ANNEX 1 Annex 1 Pertinent Documents
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The Study Board shall provide optio
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Pertinent Document 2 Plan of Study
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trial regulation plans will need to
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WHEREAS pursuant to the said Applic
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(c) (d) (e) (f) (g) The works shall
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(i) (j) (k) Under regulation, the f
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(b) Control Facilities Adequate con
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ANNEX 2 2 Annex2 Technical Work Gro
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Hydrology, supplies Historical and
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Performance Indicators As noted ear
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Table A-2: Lower St. Lawrence River
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Table A-3: Weighting Scheme for Eco
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In the St. Lawrence River, high spr
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References Armellin, A., Mingelbier
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A. Environmental Contextual Narrati
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types. Analyses of historical aeria
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9. References Listed in text Baedke
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B. Recreational Boating and Tourism
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In addition to recreational boating
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Summary of Key Findings Based on it
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ANNEX 2 Figure B-3: Alexandria Bay
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Participants Recreational Boating a
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Communities along New York waters v
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On the Canadian side, a telephone s
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3. Potentially Significant Benefit
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The average horsepower of motor boa
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Noden, D. and Brown, T. (1975) The
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The Lower St. Lawrence River In com
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Table C-1: Unit Costs for the Const
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Beach Access The beach access perfo
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Since the value of shore protection
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-6: Map of percent
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-8: Map of downstre
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References Baird, W.F. and Associat
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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Given the current land use policies
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. In the case of the shore protecti
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e. With the ever increasing urban d
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8. Risk Assessment/Sensitivity Anal
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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This interest suffered badly during
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5. Key Trends Construction along ri
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Finally, from a computational stand
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D. Commercial Navigation Technical
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More information on the socio-econo
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Participants Commercial Navigation
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. Number of stakeholders The St. La
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g. Trade flows and current market c
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Commercial navigation costs actuall
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5. Key Trends Provided below are hi
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Another adaptive measure to falling
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f. In Montreal, water levels impact
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U.S. Dollars ANNEX 2 Figure E-1: Sh
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Ice formation Ice cover stability i
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Hydroelectric Power Generation Tech
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Regionally, hydropower is seen main
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NYISO administers the Day Ahead Mar
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(b) The hydropower performance indi
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Synapse Energy Economics Inc. devel
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9. References The Hydroelectric Pow
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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Taste and odours performance indica
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Determining a critical elevation fo
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Water level in Pointe-Claire (m) Fi
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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7. Adaptive Behaviours The evaluati
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(d) History of the interest The Akw
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Under this project, the H&H TWG pro
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increases throughout the year. Mixi
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• build operational hydrology for
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Fan, Y. and Fay, D. (2001) Variatio
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I. Common Data Needs Technical Work
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Collection of detailed bathymetric
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• Metadata requirements Metadata
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FTP Support The first component of
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ANNEX 2 Figure J-3: Typical product
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ANNEX 3 Annex 3 Plan Descriptions a
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After discussions, the Plan Formula
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Table A-1: Constraints Applied to E
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Deviations The outflow calculated a
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The following list summarizes the a
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-3: Lake Ontario Av
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Lake Ontario level (m) 1.9 1.8 1.7
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-8: Cumulative Freq
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Total winter flow (10 m 3 /s - quar
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Plan 1958-DD - Appendix Detailed de
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SELECT CASE adjusted supply indicat
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If the Lake Ontario level is greate
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The inflow category (e.g., wet, dry
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Step 5 - Ice limit: Exactly the sam
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-18: Plan A + rule
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Other rules Plan B + has two additi
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Plan D + : Blended Benefits Objecti
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-19A: Lake Ontario
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-20: Lake Ontario s
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-21F: Long Sault Da
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Figure B-23 shows the three benefit
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Score Figure B-25: Score based on t
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Flow Constraints In addition to the
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This procedure is repeated until th
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Reference and Interest Specific Reg
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Plan 1958-D Regulation of Lake Onta
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4. The “I” limits, or ice limit
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Figure B-31 compares the scoring re
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Experimental variations In simpler
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C. Summary Tables of Plan Results T
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Historical Time Series (1900-2000)
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Environmental Results (Historical)
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Stochastic Supply Sequences Economi
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Table C-8: Economic results for can
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Table C-10: Economic results for ca
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Table C-12: Environmental results f
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Table C-14: Environmental results f
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ANNEX 4 Introduction Annex 4 Mitiga
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The great majority of potential act
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Great Lakes Advance Emergency Manag
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“(b) General Plan. (1) The Secret
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Adaptive Management Action Plan (AM
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difference in evaluations. If, for
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Coastal Monitoring Purpose: Monitor
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Adaptive Management Program Summary
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS ABIOTIC - Non-liv
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COASTAL EROSION - The wearing away
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EROSION - The wearing away of land
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HYDROLOGIC MODELING - The use of ph
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MEASURE, STRUCTURAL - Any measure t
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PUBLIC INFORMATION - Activities whe
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SUBSTRATE COMPOSITION - Categorical
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FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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