FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

FINAL REPORT
• Ecohydrology is the fundamental scientific basis for enhancing the ecological integrity of the
Lake Ontario- St. Lawrence River system. The hypothesis that hydrologic variability is essential to
improved wetland structure and function which, in turn, increases species diversity and abundance,
needs to be validated, and the predictive models which are based on these premises need to be
constantly updated as new information is collected and developed. Consideration should be given to
establishing a permanent network of monitored wetland sites for the purpose of collecting and
analyzing data as part of Integrated Ecological Response Model improvement. An equivalent
monitoring of selected species at risk might also be considered.
• Shoreline erosion rates should be monitored, as well as recreational boating responses in terms of
usage, benefits and costs.
• Coordination, evaluation and incorporation of the necessary actions cited above, including the integration
of ongoing monitoring programs of numerous federal, provincial and state agencies, should be the
responsibility of the Control Board and the IJC.
Conversion to Operational Form of the Plan Selected by the Commission
During the last two years, the Plan Formulation and Evaluation Group has been developing and refining plan
options as alternatives to the present plan, Plan 1958-D. Once an option is selected by the Commission,
an operational version of the option will be required for use by the International St. Lawrence River Board
of Control for their weekly outflow decisions. The operational arms of the Control Board are presently the
offices of the U.S. and Canadian Regulation Representatives at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Buffalo
District, and Environment Canada’s Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Regulation Office in Cornwall, Ontario,
respectively. It is suggested that this role be retained by these offices and that they undertake the task of
developing the operational tools for the Control Board.
Conversion of Quarter-month to Weekly Outflow Specification
Each of the plans were evaluated over an historical supply period from 1900 through 2000. In order to
make use of existing historical data, to be consistent with previous plan evaluations, and to standardize all
years eliminating leap years, each year was divided into 48 quarter-months. The same standardization was
used in the evaluation of stochastic supplies considering the equivalent of 50,000 years. However, actual
regulation is performed weekly. The present weekly outflow begins at 00:01 hours on Saturday. In order
to convert the rules in the plans from those using quarter-monthly values to weekly values, procedures
outlined in “Operational Guides for Plan 1958-D,” dated December 12, 1963, will be used, but modified to
pertain to the particular procedures used within each option.
Selection of Forecasting Options for Lake Ontario Water Supplies, Ottawa River
and Tributary Flows
All operational plans rely on an estimate of future conditions. Each option has a component that looks at
various forecast horizons to determine what the next outflow release should be. There are a suite of tools
available to provide the Control Board with assistance in the area of forecasts, including:
• U.S. Upper Great Lakes water level forecasts
• U.S. Lake Ontario water level forecasts
• Canadian Great Lakes water level forecasts
• Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System
• NOAA Climate Outlooks
• Environment Canada Seasonal Climate Outlooks
• Ottawa River Basin Regulation Committee forecasts
• Canadian forecasts of downstream tributary flows
96 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows