FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

FINAL REPORT
Table 11: Summary of Economic Results for Four Extreme Stochastic Supply Sequences under
Plan 1958-DD
Annual Average in $US Millions
1958-DD 1958-DD 1958-DD 1958-DD
Historic vs S1 Historic vs S2 Historic vs S3 Historic vs S4
(Extremely (Extremely (Similar to (Longest
Performance Indicator Dry) Wet) Historic) Drought)
COASTAL $0.95 -$9.83 -$2.38 $3.06
Lake Ontario -$0.25 -$9.98 -$2.41 $1.70
Shore Protection Maintenance -$0.33 -$7.70 -$2.38 $1.47
Erosion to Unprotected Developed Parcels $0.09 -$0.06 -$0.02 $0.23
Flooding -$0.01 -$2.22 $0.00 $0.00
Upper St. Lawrence River $0.00 -$0.17 $0.00 $0.00
Flooding $0.00 -$0.17 $0.00 $0.00
St. Lawrence $1.20 $0.32 $0.03 $1.35
Flooding $0.73 $0.35 $0.34 $0.88
Shore Protection Maintenance $0.48 -$0.03 -$0.31 $0.48
COMMERCIAL NAVIGATION -$0.75 -$2.80 $0.34 $2.04
Lake Ontario -$0.23 -$0.04 $0.01 -$0.25
Seaway -$0.10 -$2.93 $0.06 $3.04
Montreal down -$0.42 $0.16 $0.26 -$0.75
HYDROPOWER -$30.34 -$1.39 $2.70 -$55.96
NYPA-OPG -$24.51 -$0.57 $2.40 -$45.13
Hydro Quebec -$5.83 -$0.82 $0.30 -$10.83
RECREATIONAL BOATING -$18.06 -$2.21 $3.67 -$27.65
Above Dam -$12.75 -$2.04 $1.47 -$16.29
Lake Ontario -$10.49 -$1.74 $1.08 -$13.17
Alex Bay -$2.05 -$0.27 $0.39 -$2.93
Ogdensburg -$0.20 -$0.05 $0.00 -$0.20
Lake St. Lawrence -$0.01 $0.02 $0.00 $0.01
Below Dam -$5.31 -$0.17 $2.19 -$11.36
Lac St. Louis -$2.61 -$0.19 $0.91 -$5.53
Montreal -$1.84 $0.07 $0.93 -$4.22
Lac St. Pierre -$0.86 -$0.05 $0.35 -$1.62
M&I $0.00 $0.00 $0.20 $0.00
SL One time infrastructure costs $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
LSL Water Quality Investments $0.00 $0.00 $0.20 $0.00
Notes to Table 11:
1. Results are absolute average annual values (million U.S. dollars) with all numbers representing damages avoided
Positive numbers indicate that the stochastic analysis results in greater benefits for an interest than does the
analysis based on the historical series. Negative numbers indicate that the stochastic analysis results in smaller
benefits than the historical analysis.
2. Historical sequence represents supplies from 1900 to 2000.
3. S1 through S4 represent four separate 101-year extreme centuries selected from the 50,000-year stochastic series,
where S1 is extremely dry, S2 is extremely wet and has a large range, S3 is similar to historical and S4 has the
longest drought.
74 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows