FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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Level (m IGLD 1985) Level (ft. IGLD 1985) FINAL REPORT Figure 33: Montreal Harbour water levels: average, 1% exceedance and 99% exceedance based on the 50,000-year stochastic simulation 52 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
Overall Plan Results All of the candidate plans create overall economic and environmental benefits compared with 1958-DD, but differ in their distribution of these benefits. Table 4 below provides a summary of overall results. A further breakdown and discussion of these results will follow. The total net benefits are a summation of all economic performance indicators (positive and negative). The total of losses provides an indication of disproportionate loss by showing a sum of all losses caused by a plan. The overall environmental index provides an indication of the environmental benefits of each of the plans, shown as a ratio. This is further supported by the meadow marsh wetlands score, which is an important indicator discussed later in the report. Also shown are the number of environmental performance indicators that show more than a 10% improvement relative to Plan 1958-DD or greater than a 10% deterioration relative to 1958-DD. Finally, this table also shows the number of species at risk impacted by a given plan by more than a 10% difference relative to 1958-DD. Plan E evaluations are presented for comparison purposes only, as Plan E is not a candidate plan for consideration. FINAL REPORT Table 4: Summary Results (economic results determined from stochastic, environmental ratios based on historical supply sequence) Impact 1 Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E Total Net Benefits 2 $6.44 $4.63 $4.48 -$16.36 Total of Losses (all sectors) 3 -$0.90 -$4.35 -$0.73 -$33.87 Overall Environmental Index 4 1.06 1.35 1.10 4.04 Meadow Marsh Index 5 1.02 1.44 1.17 1.56 Environmental PIs better off 6 3 7 5 9 Environmental PIs worse off 7 5 3 1 3 Species at Risk better off 8 0 2 0 3 Species at Risk worse off 9 1 0 0 0 Notes to Table 4: 1. All impacts are measured relative to the estimated impact of Plan 1958-DD. 2. Economic figures represent the average annual impact relative to Plan 1958-DD; figures are reported in millions of U.S. dollars and are based on the 50,000-year stochastic supply series, using a 4% discount rate over a 30-year period, for coastal erosion and shore protection maintenance. 3. Total of Losses (all sectors) is the sum of all negative economic benefits for a plan. 4. The Overall Environmental Index was developed by Limno-tech for the Study Board. The Index is described in Annex 1 of this report. Scores are presented as ratios, with 1 representing no change from Plan 1958-DD, less than 1 a deterioration relative to 1958-DD, and greater than 1 an improvement relative to 1958-DD. Results are based on the historical sequence. 5. The Wetland Meadow Marsh Community performance indicator has been highlighted as a priority performance indicator for environmental health on Lake Ontario. It is presented as a ratio (see 4 above). 6. This measure indicates the number of environmental performance indicators that score significantly (>10%) higher than 1.0, indicating that the given plan performs better than Plan 1958-DD. 7. This measure indicates the number of environmental performance indicators that score significantly (>10%) less than 1.0, indicating that the given plan does not perform as well as Plan 1958-DD. 8. This measure indicates the number of Species-at-Risk performance indicators that score significantly (>10%) higher than 1.0, indicating that the given plan performs better than Plan 1958-DD. 9. This measure indicates the number of Species-at-Risk performance indicators which score significantly (>10%) lower than 1.0, indicating that the given plan does not perform as well as Plan 1958-DD. Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows 53
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT current operating regi
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FINAL REPORT The current regulation
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FINAL REPORT If none of the candida
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FINAL REPORT Divergent Viewpoints T
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FINAL REPORT Transition to Implemen
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FINAL REPORT 10: Priority Performan
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Page 20 and 21: FINAL REPORT The plan consists of a
Page 22 and 23: FINAL REPORT Figure 2: The Lake Ont
Page 24 and 25: FINAL REPORT 2. Criteria and regula
Page 26 and 27: FINAL REPORT water level and flow d
Page 28 and 29: FINAL REPORT Independent Review Ind
Page 30 and 31: FINAL REPORT Coastal Processes The
Page 32 and 33: FINAL REPORT The current estimate o
Page 34 and 35: FINAL REPORT Table 2: Economic Perf
Page 36 and 37: FINAL REPORT • Shore protection m
Page 38 and 39: FINAL REPORT Abbreviations STELLA -
Page 40 and 41: FINAL REPORT Approach 2: Optimizati
Page 42 and 43: FINAL REPORT Evaluation and Screeni
Page 44 and 45: FINAL REPORT • All performance in
Page 46 and 47: FINAL REPORT 5. During the Seaway n
Page 48 and 49: FINAL REPORT The programmed Plan 19
Page 50 and 51: FINAL REPORT Other efforts showed t
Page 52 and 53: FINAL REPORT Plan E generally produ
Page 54 and 55: FINAL REPORT An early version of Pl
Page 56 and 57: FINAL REPORT Plan Evaluations and C
Page 58 and 59: FINAL REPORT Table 3: Differences i
Page 60 and 61: Lake Ontario FINAL REPORT Figure 13
Page 62 and 63: St. Lawrence River at Lac St. Louis
Page 64 and 65: FINAL REPORT Figures 29, 30, 32 and
Page 66 and 67: Discharge (m 3 /s) Discharge (tcfs)
Page 70 and 71: FINAL REPORT Economic Results All p
Page 72 and 73: FINAL REPORT Disproportionate Loss
Page 74 and 75: FINAL REPORT Table 7: Percent Damag
Page 76 and 77: FINAL REPORT Table 8: Environmental
Page 78 and 79: FINAL REPORT Beyond the Summary Num
Page 80 and 81: FINAL REPORT Figure 36: Net economi
Page 82 and 83: FINAL REPORT On Lake Ontario, lakeb
Page 84 and 85: FINAL REPORT Coastal damages occur
Page 86 and 87: FINAL REPORT Figure 39: Wetland pla
Page 88 and 89: FINAL REPORT Sensitivity Analyses D
Page 90 and 91: FINAL REPORT Table 11: Summary of E
Page 92 and 93: FINAL REPORT Figure 43: Lake Ontari
Page 94 and 95: FINAL REPORT Climate Change Analysi
Page 96 and 97: FINAL REPORT Table 13: Summary of E
Page 98 and 99: FINAL REPORT Validation The Plan Fo
Page 100 and 101: FINAL REPORT Municipal and Industri
Page 102 and 103: FINAL REPORT Interest-specific shor
Page 104 and 105: FINAL REPORT Change the Criteria an
Page 106 and 107: FINAL REPORT Through the advocacy o
Page 108 and 109: FINAL REPORT 5. People living along
Page 110 and 111: FINAL REPORT The Study Board consid
Page 112 and 113: FINAL REPORT • Ecohydrology is th
Page 114 and 115: FINAL REPORT Institutional issues d
Page 116 and 117: FINAL REPORT Environmental Data and
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FINAL REPORT The point of access to
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FINAL REPORT Possible Changes in th
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FINAL REPORT 106 Options for Managi
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FINAL REPORT People and Organizatio
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Technica
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FINAL REPORT Common Data and Inform
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FINAL REPORT BASIN; WATERSHED - The
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FINAL REPORT EROSION - The wearing
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FINAL REPORT INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL
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FINAL REPORT PHYSIOGRAPHY - A descr
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FINAL REPORT TECHNICAL WORK GROUP (
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FINAL REPORT Pacific International
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FINAL REPORT Savage, C. Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Doyon, B., et al. (200
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FINAL REPORT Planning and Managemen
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FINAL REPORT h. Information Managem
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ANNEXES Options for Managing Lake O
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ANNEXES Annex 3 - Plan Descriptions
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ANNEX 1 Annex 1 Pertinent Documents
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The Study Board shall provide optio
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Pertinent Document 2 Plan of Study
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trial regulation plans will need to
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WHEREAS pursuant to the said Applic
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(c) (d) (e) (f) (g) The works shall
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(i) (j) (k) Under regulation, the f
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(b) Control Facilities Adequate con
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ANNEX 2 2 Annex2 Technical Work Gro
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Hydrology, supplies Historical and
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Performance Indicators As noted ear
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Table A-2: Lower St. Lawrence River
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Table A-3: Weighting Scheme for Eco
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In the St. Lawrence River, high spr
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References Armellin, A., Mingelbier
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A. Environmental Contextual Narrati
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types. Analyses of historical aeria
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9. References Listed in text Baedke
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B. Recreational Boating and Tourism
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In addition to recreational boating
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Summary of Key Findings Based on it
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ANNEX 2 Figure B-3: Alexandria Bay
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Participants Recreational Boating a
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Communities along New York waters v
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On the Canadian side, a telephone s
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3. Potentially Significant Benefit
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The average horsepower of motor boa
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Noden, D. and Brown, T. (1975) The
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The Lower St. Lawrence River In com
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Table C-1: Unit Costs for the Const
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Beach Access The beach access perfo
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Since the value of shore protection
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-6: Map of percent
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-8: Map of downstre
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References Baird, W.F. and Associat
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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Given the current land use policies
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. In the case of the shore protecti
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e. With the ever increasing urban d
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8. Risk Assessment/Sensitivity Anal
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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This interest suffered badly during
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5. Key Trends Construction along ri
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Finally, from a computational stand
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D. Commercial Navigation Technical
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More information on the socio-econo
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Participants Commercial Navigation
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. Number of stakeholders The St. La
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g. Trade flows and current market c
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Commercial navigation costs actuall
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5. Key Trends Provided below are hi
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Another adaptive measure to falling
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f. In Montreal, water levels impact
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U.S. Dollars ANNEX 2 Figure E-1: Sh
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Ice formation Ice cover stability i
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Hydroelectric Power Generation Tech
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Regionally, hydropower is seen main
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NYISO administers the Day Ahead Mar
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(b) The hydropower performance indi
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Synapse Energy Economics Inc. devel
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9. References The Hydroelectric Pow
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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Taste and odours performance indica
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Determining a critical elevation fo
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Water level in Pointe-Claire (m) Fi
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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7. Adaptive Behaviours The evaluati
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(d) History of the interest The Akw
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Under this project, the H&H TWG pro
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increases throughout the year. Mixi
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• build operational hydrology for
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Fan, Y. and Fay, D. (2001) Variatio
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I. Common Data Needs Technical Work
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Collection of detailed bathymetric
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• Metadata requirements Metadata
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FTP Support The first component of
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ANNEX 2 Figure J-3: Typical product
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ANNEX 3 Annex 3 Plan Descriptions a
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After discussions, the Plan Formula
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Table A-1: Constraints Applied to E
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Deviations The outflow calculated a
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The following list summarizes the a
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-3: Lake Ontario Av
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Lake Ontario level (m) 1.9 1.8 1.7
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-8: Cumulative Freq
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Total winter flow (10 m 3 /s - quar
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Plan 1958-DD - Appendix Detailed de
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SELECT CASE adjusted supply indicat
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If the Lake Ontario level is greate
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The inflow category (e.g., wet, dry
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Step 5 - Ice limit: Exactly the sam
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-18: Plan A + rule
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Other rules Plan B + has two additi
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Plan D + : Blended Benefits Objecti
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-19A: Lake Ontario
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-20: Lake Ontario s
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-21F: Long Sault Da
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Figure B-23 shows the three benefit
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Score Figure B-25: Score based on t
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Flow Constraints In addition to the
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This procedure is repeated until th
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Reference and Interest Specific Reg
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Plan 1958-D Regulation of Lake Onta
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4. The “I” limits, or ice limit
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Figure B-31 compares the scoring re
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Experimental variations In simpler
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C. Summary Tables of Plan Results T
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Historical Time Series (1900-2000)
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Environmental Results (Historical)
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Stochastic Supply Sequences Economi
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Table C-8: Economic results for can
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Table C-10: Economic results for ca
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Table C-12: Environmental results f
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Table C-14: Environmental results f
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ANNEX 4 Introduction Annex 4 Mitiga
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The great majority of potential act
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Great Lakes Advance Emergency Manag
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“(b) General Plan. (1) The Secret
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Adaptive Management Action Plan (AM
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difference in evaluations. If, for
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Coastal Monitoring Purpose: Monitor
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Adaptive Management Program Summary
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS ABIOTIC - Non-liv
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COASTAL EROSION - The wearing away
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EROSION - The wearing away of land
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HYDROLOGIC MODELING - The use of ph
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MEASURE, STRUCTURAL - Any measure t
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PUBLIC INFORMATION - Activities whe
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SUBSTRATE COMPOSITION - Categorical
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FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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