FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

Recreational Boating
Validation
The Shared Vision Model was compared to an Excel model by means of stage damage curves and found
accurate. The stage-damage relationships were verified for internal consistency (i.e., number of slips,
depths of each, the draft of boats assigned to the slip, and the calculated elevation at which the slip could
not accommodate the boat) for above-dam U.S. marina damages.
FINAL REPORT
Sensitivity Analysis
The plans were evaluated with normal, doubled and halved willingness-to-pay estimates and it was found
that only when plans were exceptionally close did plan rankings change. This demonstrated that plan
selection was not sensitive to errors in user-day value estimates.
Hydropower
Validation
The economic experts were asked to advise on the true measure of public welfare and they agreed that
marginal changes in energy production at estimated market prices should be used. A study was
commissioned to determine what rates to use. The three power entities were asked to determine which
other metrics they would use to rank plans. Adjustments were made to changes in Ontario generation for
concurrent changes in Niagara generation (higher Lake Ontario elevations increase the head and energy
produced at Moses-Saunders but reduce the head and energy produced at Niagara Falls).
Sensitivity Analysis
None. There were no challenges to the seasonal patterns of prices, which reflect the increased use of
electricity to heat and cool. Plans that produce more hydropower benefits do so because they maintain
slightly higher Lake Ontario elevations. There is no doubt that this creates a higher “head” at the
Moses-Saunders power dam, which will lead to greater energy production.
Commercial Navigation
Validation
Cross-checks of performance indicators carried out between the navigation model and the other two
evaluative models of the Study showed that calculations were being performed correctly - all three models
returned consistent results. The navigation model used 1995-1999 shipping data, including ship cost
estimates updated to 2005 levels, so the base case is defensible. Traffic is about the same now as it was
from 1995-1999, but container traffic in Montreal is up dramatically and not reflected in the model.
As a result, the estimates of shipping costs and benefits are probably too low for current and near-term
future conditions.
Sensitivity Analysis
Plan differences are most dramatic in the area of delay costs, especially delays caused because the slope
of the water surface in the upper St. Lawrence River is too steep to navigate safely. In one short segment,
the limit for delays is a 0.25-meter (0.82-foot) drop, and most gradient delays occur because of problems
in that reach.
Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
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