FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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FINAL REPORT Approach 2: Optimization/Rule Curve Approach An optimization model solves for the release or set of releases that produces the best mix of benefits. In simple problems, a “perfect” solution can be found. In complex situations, optimization can help make trial-and-error solutions more efficient. In this formulation approach, an optimization model first developed at Cornell University was used to generate a family of rule curves for determining the release based on the current Lake Ontario level. Applying these rule curves alone produced some undesirable results, so plans were modified by adding adjustments and limits based on forecasts and other conditions in the system. Using this approach consistently created greater overall net economic benefits than other plan methods, and resulted in fairly simple plans because the seasonal adjustment and forecast were already built into the curves. The weakness of this approach was that releases tended to change too much from quarter-month to quarter-month, and losses to some stakeholders were larger than in other plans. Further work to reduce losses and limit the amount that releases could change from quarter-month to quarter-month achieved better results in the final plan developed with this approach. Approach 3: Optimization of Water Levels (Balanced Benefits) Approach The second optimization tested a wide range of releases each quarter month to see which optimizes the combined interests of the stakeholder groups. This approach, which did not produce rule curves, is an adaptation and refinement of the so-called Interest Satisfaction Model developed following the 1993 Water Levels Reference Study. In this approach, a point scale is established for a range of water levels, flows or other hydrologic metrics that measure how close a given metric is to the preferences of the major interests. Levels or flows that best serve the interests in question are awarded more points than those that harm the interests. A computer program iteratively calculates the total score for all the different metrics each quartermonth for many different releases then picks the release that maximizes the total score. A forecasting feature and some environmental constraints were added to improve the overall performance of plans generated using this approach. Approach 4: Based on Pre-project Plan The final approach was quite different from the others, the goal being to return the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River system to a more natural regime, with conditions similar to those prior to the hydropower project development, while minimizing damages to present interests. Many have argued that natural flow patterns created the ecological balance found before the construction of regulation dams, and to a great extent, define the ideal with which regulated flow patterns should be compared. This approach uses “pre-project” releases as a starting point, and then adjusts releases based on short-term and long-term water supply forecasts. Rules are included to reduce the risk of flooding on the Lake and the River, and flow limits are applied to ensure minimum and maximum river flows, stable river ice development, acceptable navigation conditions, safe operating conditions for control structures, and controlled week-to-week changes in flows. The term “pre-project” refers specifically to the conditions of March1955, referenced in the Orders of Approval for the project. Prior to regulation, Lake Ontario outflows were limited by the hydraulic capacity of the St. Lawrence River channel. Natural rock sills at the head of the Galop Rapids, just downstream of Ogdensburg and Prescott, formed the natural hydraulic constraint. This state is hydraulically similar to the natural state of the channel prior to 1900 (ILOBOE, 1958). Although the releases are similar to natural releases, the resulting water levels below the regulation dam may be different from what they would have been in 1900 because of modifications made to the River in the 1950s for the construction of the Seaway. A stage-discharge relationship to estimate pre-project outflows was developed in the 1950s for the International St. Lawrence River Board of Control (ISLRBC) and was reviewed and re-developed by Caldwell and Fay in 2002. As with all regulation plans, plans based on the pre-project releases would function with the modern channel and structures in place in the international section of the River. 24 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
Pre-project releases tend to be very linear, with a direct relationship between water levels on Lake Ontario and releases through the dam, so the higher the Lake is the higher the releases. Comparison of the two graphs below, showing the pre-project releases versus Plan 1958-D with Deviations, reveals the much more linear relationship between releases and water levels under the Pre-project Plan versus those of 1958-DD. The second graph shows pre-project levels versus Plan 1958-DD since regulation began in 1960. FINAL REPORT Figures 6 and 7: Plan releases versus Lake Ontario water levels for the Pre-project Plan and Plan 1958-DD Figure 8: Comparison of Lake Ontario water levels for the Pre-project Plan versus Plan 1958-DD over the past 40 years of supplies Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows 25
Page 1 and 2: FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
Page 3: FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
Page 6 and 7: FINAL REPORT current operating regi
Page 8 and 9: FINAL REPORT The current regulation
Page 10 and 11: FINAL REPORT If none of the candida
Page 12 and 13: FINAL REPORT Divergent Viewpoints T
Page 14 and 15: FINAL REPORT Transition to Implemen
Page 16 and 17: FINAL REPORT 10: Priority Performan
Page 18 and 19: FINAL REPORT a considerable amount
Page 20 and 21: FINAL REPORT The plan consists of a
Page 22 and 23: FINAL REPORT Figure 2: The Lake Ont
Page 24 and 25: FINAL REPORT 2. Criteria and regula
Page 26 and 27: FINAL REPORT water level and flow d
Page 28 and 29: FINAL REPORT Independent Review Ind
Page 30 and 31: FINAL REPORT Coastal Processes The
Page 32 and 33: FINAL REPORT The current estimate o
Page 34 and 35: FINAL REPORT Table 2: Economic Perf
Page 36 and 37: FINAL REPORT • Shore protection m
Page 38 and 39: FINAL REPORT Abbreviations STELLA -
Page 42 and 43: FINAL REPORT Evaluation and Screeni
Page 44 and 45: FINAL REPORT • All performance in
Page 46 and 47: FINAL REPORT 5. During the Seaway n
Page 48 and 49: FINAL REPORT The programmed Plan 19
Page 50 and 51: FINAL REPORT Other efforts showed t
Page 52 and 53: FINAL REPORT Plan E generally produ
Page 54 and 55: FINAL REPORT An early version of Pl
Page 56 and 57: FINAL REPORT Plan Evaluations and C
Page 58 and 59: FINAL REPORT Table 3: Differences i
Page 60 and 61: Lake Ontario FINAL REPORT Figure 13
Page 62 and 63: St. Lawrence River at Lac St. Louis
Page 64 and 65: FINAL REPORT Figures 29, 30, 32 and
Page 66 and 67: Discharge (m 3 /s) Discharge (tcfs)
Page 68 and 69: Level (m IGLD 1985) Level (ft. IGLD
Page 70 and 71: FINAL REPORT Economic Results All p
Page 72 and 73: FINAL REPORT Disproportionate Loss
Page 74 and 75: FINAL REPORT Table 7: Percent Damag
Page 76 and 77: FINAL REPORT Table 8: Environmental
Page 78 and 79: FINAL REPORT Beyond the Summary Num
Page 80 and 81: FINAL REPORT Figure 36: Net economi
Page 82 and 83: FINAL REPORT On Lake Ontario, lakeb
Page 84 and 85: FINAL REPORT Coastal damages occur
Page 86 and 87: FINAL REPORT Figure 39: Wetland pla
Page 88 and 89: FINAL REPORT Sensitivity Analyses D
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FINAL REPORT Table 11: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Figure 43: Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Climate Change Analysi
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FINAL REPORT Table 13: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Validation The Plan Fo
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FINAL REPORT Municipal and Industri
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FINAL REPORT Interest-specific shor
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FINAL REPORT Change the Criteria an
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FINAL REPORT Through the advocacy o
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FINAL REPORT 5. People living along
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FINAL REPORT The Study Board consid
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FINAL REPORT • Ecohydrology is th
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FINAL REPORT Institutional issues d
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Data and
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FINAL REPORT The point of access to
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FINAL REPORT Possible Changes in th
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FINAL REPORT 106 Options for Managi
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FINAL REPORT People and Organizatio
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Technica
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FINAL REPORT Common Data and Inform
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FINAL REPORT BASIN; WATERSHED - The
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FINAL REPORT EROSION - The wearing
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FINAL REPORT INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL
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FINAL REPORT PHYSIOGRAPHY - A descr
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FINAL REPORT TECHNICAL WORK GROUP (
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FINAL REPORT Pacific International
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FINAL REPORT Savage, C. Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Doyon, B., et al. (200
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FINAL REPORT Planning and Managemen
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FINAL REPORT h. Information Managem
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ANNEXES Options for Managing Lake O
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ANNEXES Annex 3 - Plan Descriptions
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ANNEX 1 Annex 1 Pertinent Documents
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The Study Board shall provide optio
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Pertinent Document 2 Plan of Study
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trial regulation plans will need to
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WHEREAS pursuant to the said Applic
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(c) (d) (e) (f) (g) The works shall
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(i) (j) (k) Under regulation, the f
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(b) Control Facilities Adequate con
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ANNEX 2 2 Annex2 Technical Work Gro
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Hydrology, supplies Historical and
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Performance Indicators As noted ear
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Table A-2: Lower St. Lawrence River
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Table A-3: Weighting Scheme for Eco
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In the St. Lawrence River, high spr
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References Armellin, A., Mingelbier
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A. Environmental Contextual Narrati
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types. Analyses of historical aeria
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9. References Listed in text Baedke
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B. Recreational Boating and Tourism
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In addition to recreational boating
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Summary of Key Findings Based on it
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ANNEX 2 Figure B-3: Alexandria Bay
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Participants Recreational Boating a
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Communities along New York waters v
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On the Canadian side, a telephone s
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3. Potentially Significant Benefit
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The average horsepower of motor boa
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Noden, D. and Brown, T. (1975) The
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The Lower St. Lawrence River In com
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Table C-1: Unit Costs for the Const
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Beach Access The beach access perfo
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Since the value of shore protection
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-6: Map of percent
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-8: Map of downstre
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References Baird, W.F. and Associat
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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Given the current land use policies
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. In the case of the shore protecti
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e. With the ever increasing urban d
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8. Risk Assessment/Sensitivity Anal
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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This interest suffered badly during
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5. Key Trends Construction along ri
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Finally, from a computational stand
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D. Commercial Navigation Technical
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More information on the socio-econo
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Participants Commercial Navigation
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. Number of stakeholders The St. La
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g. Trade flows and current market c
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Commercial navigation costs actuall
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5. Key Trends Provided below are hi
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Another adaptive measure to falling
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f. In Montreal, water levels impact
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U.S. Dollars ANNEX 2 Figure E-1: Sh
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Ice formation Ice cover stability i
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Hydroelectric Power Generation Tech
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Regionally, hydropower is seen main
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NYISO administers the Day Ahead Mar
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(b) The hydropower performance indi
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Synapse Energy Economics Inc. devel
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9. References The Hydroelectric Pow
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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Taste and odours performance indica
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Determining a critical elevation fo
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Water level in Pointe-Claire (m) Fi
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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7. Adaptive Behaviours The evaluati
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(d) History of the interest The Akw
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Under this project, the H&H TWG pro
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increases throughout the year. Mixi
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• build operational hydrology for
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Fan, Y. and Fay, D. (2001) Variatio
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I. Common Data Needs Technical Work
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Collection of detailed bathymetric
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• Metadata requirements Metadata
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FTP Support The first component of
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ANNEX 2 Figure J-3: Typical product
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ANNEX 3 Annex 3 Plan Descriptions a
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After discussions, the Plan Formula
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Table A-1: Constraints Applied to E
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Deviations The outflow calculated a
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The following list summarizes the a
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-3: Lake Ontario Av
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Lake Ontario level (m) 1.9 1.8 1.7
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-8: Cumulative Freq
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Total winter flow (10 m 3 /s - quar
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Plan 1958-DD - Appendix Detailed de
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SELECT CASE adjusted supply indicat
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If the Lake Ontario level is greate
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The inflow category (e.g., wet, dry
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Step 5 - Ice limit: Exactly the sam
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-18: Plan A + rule
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Other rules Plan B + has two additi
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Plan D + : Blended Benefits Objecti
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-19A: Lake Ontario
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-20: Lake Ontario s
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-21F: Long Sault Da
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Figure B-23 shows the three benefit
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Score Figure B-25: Score based on t
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Flow Constraints In addition to the
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This procedure is repeated until th
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Reference and Interest Specific Reg
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Plan 1958-D Regulation of Lake Onta
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4. The “I” limits, or ice limit
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Figure B-31 compares the scoring re
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Experimental variations In simpler
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C. Summary Tables of Plan Results T
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Historical Time Series (1900-2000)
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Environmental Results (Historical)
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Stochastic Supply Sequences Economi
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Table C-8: Economic results for can
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Table C-10: Economic results for ca
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Table C-12: Environmental results f
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Table C-14: Environmental results f
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ANNEX 4 Introduction Annex 4 Mitiga
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The great majority of potential act
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Great Lakes Advance Emergency Manag
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“(b) General Plan. (1) The Secret
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Adaptive Management Action Plan (AM
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difference in evaluations. If, for
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Coastal Monitoring Purpose: Monitor
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Adaptive Management Program Summary
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS ABIOTIC - Non-liv
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COASTAL EROSION - The wearing away
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EROSION - The wearing away of land
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HYDROLOGIC MODELING - The use of ph
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MEASURE, STRUCTURAL - Any measure t
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PUBLIC INFORMATION - Activities whe
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SUBSTRATE COMPOSITION - Categorical
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FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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