FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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ANNEX ES Section Table of Contents Annex 1 – Pertinent Documents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1. International Joint Commission Directive to the International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Study Board, December 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2. Executive Summary, Plan of Study for Criteria Review in the Orders of Approval for Regulation of Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Levels and Flows, September 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3. Orders of Approval, October 29, 1952 as amended by Supplementary Orders dated July 2, 1956 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Annex 2 – Technical Work Group Summaries and Contextual Narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 A. Environmental Technical Work Group Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Environmental Contextual Narrative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 B. Recreational Boating and Tourism Technical Work Group Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Recreational Boating and Tourism Contextual Narrative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 C. Coastal Processes Technical Work Group Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Coastal Processes Contextual Narrative for Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River. . . . . . . . 71 Coastal Processes Contextual Narrative for the Lower St. Lawrence River . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 D. Commercial Navigation Technical Work Group Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Commercial Navigation Contextual Narrative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 E. Hydroelectric Power Generation Technical Work Group Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Hydroelectric Power Generation Contextual Narrative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 F. Municipal, Industrial and Domestic Water Uses Technical Work Group Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Municipal, Industrial and Domestic Water Uses Contextual Narrative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 G. Aboriginal Peoples Contextual Narrative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 H. Hydrology and Hydraulics Modeling Technical Work Group Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 I. Common Data Needs Technical Work Group Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 J. Information Management Technical Work Group Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Page Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows i
ANNEXES Annex 3 – Plan Descriptions and Summary Results . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 A Plan Formulation Guide: Summary of Constraints and Assumption for Plan Formulation . . . . . . . . . 156 B Regulation Plan Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 Plan 1958-DD – The Baseline Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 Candidate Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 Plan A + : Balanced Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 Plan B + : Balanced Environmental. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 Plan D + : Blended Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 Reference and Interest Specific Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 Plan E – Natural Flow Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 Plan 1958-D. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Plan 1998. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 OntRip3 – Plan Designed for Coastal Property Owners. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 RecBoat – Plan Designed for Recreational Boaters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 C Summary Tables of Plan Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Plan 1958-DD – Absolute Damages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Table C1: Average annual damages for Plan 1958-DD under the historical and 50,000 year stochastic sequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 Historical Time Series (1900-2000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Table C2: Economic results for candidate plans by interest and region based on historical supply sequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Table C3: Economic results for the interest specific and reference plans by interest and region based on the historical supply sequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 Table C4: Environmental performance indicator results (ratios) for candidate plans based on historical supply sequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Table C5: Environmental performance indicator results (ratios) for interest specific and reference plans based on historical supply sequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 Stochastic Supply Sequences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 Table C6: Economic results for candidate plans by interest and region based on 50,000 year stochastic supply sequence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 Four Extreme Stochastic Sequences (S1-S4). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Table C7: Economic results for candidate pans by interest and region based on the extreme stochastic supply sequence S1 - the century with the most severe Lake Ontario supply drought . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Table C8: Economic results for candidate plans by interest and region based on the extreme stochastic supply sequence S2 - the century with the most severe wet Lake Ontario supply period, which also had the largest range from wet to dry supplies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 Table C9: Economic results for candidate plans by interest and region based on the extreme stochastic supply sequence S3 - a century with a similar range and average of supplies as the historic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 ii Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT current operating regi
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FINAL REPORT The current regulation
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FINAL REPORT If none of the candida
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FINAL REPORT Divergent Viewpoints T
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FINAL REPORT Transition to Implemen
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FINAL REPORT 10: Priority Performan
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FINAL REPORT a considerable amount
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FINAL REPORT The plan consists of a
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FINAL REPORT Figure 2: The Lake Ont
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FINAL REPORT 2. Criteria and regula
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FINAL REPORT water level and flow d
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FINAL REPORT Independent Review Ind
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FINAL REPORT Coastal Processes The
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FINAL REPORT The current estimate o
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FINAL REPORT Table 2: Economic Perf
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FINAL REPORT • Shore protection m
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FINAL REPORT Abbreviations STELLA -
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FINAL REPORT Approach 2: Optimizati
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FINAL REPORT Evaluation and Screeni
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FINAL REPORT • All performance in
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FINAL REPORT 5. During the Seaway n
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FINAL REPORT The programmed Plan 19
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FINAL REPORT Other efforts showed t
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FINAL REPORT Plan E generally produ
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FINAL REPORT An early version of Pl
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FINAL REPORT Plan Evaluations and C
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FINAL REPORT Table 3: Differences i
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Lake Ontario FINAL REPORT Figure 13
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St. Lawrence River at Lac St. Louis
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FINAL REPORT Figures 29, 30, 32 and
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Discharge (m 3 /s) Discharge (tcfs)
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Level (m IGLD 1985) Level (ft. IGLD
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FINAL REPORT Economic Results All p
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FINAL REPORT Disproportionate Loss
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FINAL REPORT Table 7: Percent Damag
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FINAL REPORT Table 8: Environmental
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FINAL REPORT Beyond the Summary Num
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FINAL REPORT Figure 36: Net economi
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FINAL REPORT On Lake Ontario, lakeb
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FINAL REPORT Coastal damages occur
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FINAL REPORT Figure 39: Wetland pla
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FINAL REPORT Sensitivity Analyses D
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FINAL REPORT Table 11: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Figure 43: Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Climate Change Analysi
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FINAL REPORT Table 13: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Validation The Plan Fo
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FINAL REPORT Municipal and Industri
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FINAL REPORT Interest-specific shor
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FINAL REPORT Change the Criteria an
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FINAL REPORT Through the advocacy o
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FINAL REPORT 5. People living along
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FINAL REPORT The Study Board consid
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FINAL REPORT • Ecohydrology is th
Page 114 and 115: FINAL REPORT Institutional issues d
Page 116 and 117: FINAL REPORT Environmental Data and
Page 118 and 119: FINAL REPORT The point of access to
Page 120 and 121: FINAL REPORT Possible Changes in th
Page 122 and 123: FINAL REPORT 106 Options for Managi
Page 124 and 125: FINAL REPORT People and Organizatio
Page 126 and 127: FINAL REPORT Environmental Technica
Page 128 and 129: FINAL REPORT Common Data and Inform
Page 132 and 133: FINAL REPORT BASIN; WATERSHED - The
Page 134 and 135: FINAL REPORT EROSION - The wearing
Page 136 and 137: FINAL REPORT INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL
Page 138 and 139: FINAL REPORT PHYSIOGRAPHY - A descr
Page 140 and 141: FINAL REPORT TECHNICAL WORK GROUP (
Page 142 and 143: FINAL REPORT Pacific International
Page 144 and 145: FINAL REPORT Savage, C. Lake Ontari
Page 146 and 147: FINAL REPORT Doyon, B., et al. (200
Page 148 and 149: FINAL REPORT Planning and Managemen
Page 150 and 151: FINAL REPORT h. Information Managem
Page 164: ANNEXES Options for Managing Lake O
Page 170 and 171: ANNEX 1 Annex 1 Pertinent Documents
Page 172 and 173: The Study Board shall provide optio
Page 174 and 175: Pertinent Document 2 Plan of Study
Page 176 and 177: trial regulation plans will need to
Page 178 and 179: WHEREAS pursuant to the said Applic
Page 180 and 181: (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) The works shall
Page 182 and 183: (i) (j) (k) Under regulation, the f
Page 184 and 185: (b) Control Facilities Adequate con
Page 186 and 187: ANNEX 2 2 Annex2 Technical Work Gro
Page 188 and 189: Hydrology, supplies Historical and
Page 190 and 191: Performance Indicators As noted ear
Page 192 and 193: Table A-2: Lower St. Lawrence River
Page 194 and 195: Table A-3: Weighting Scheme for Eco
Page 196 and 197: In the St. Lawrence River, high spr
Page 198 and 199: References Armellin, A., Mingelbier
Page 200 and 201: A. Environmental Contextual Narrati
Page 202 and 203: types. Analyses of historical aeria
Page 204 and 205: 9. References Listed in text Baedke
Page 206 and 207: B. Recreational Boating and Tourism
Page 208 and 209: In addition to recreational boating
Page 210 and 211: Summary of Key Findings Based on it
Page 212 and 213: ANNEX 2 Figure B-3: Alexandria Bay
Page 214 and 215: Participants Recreational Boating a
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Communities along New York waters v
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On the Canadian side, a telephone s
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3. Potentially Significant Benefit
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The average horsepower of motor boa
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Noden, D. and Brown, T. (1975) The
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The Lower St. Lawrence River In com
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Table C-1: Unit Costs for the Const
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Beach Access The beach access perfo
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Since the value of shore protection
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-6: Map of percent
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-8: Map of downstre
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References Baird, W.F. and Associat
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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Given the current land use policies
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. In the case of the shore protecti
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e. With the ever increasing urban d
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8. Risk Assessment/Sensitivity Anal
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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This interest suffered badly during
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5. Key Trends Construction along ri
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Finally, from a computational stand
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D. Commercial Navigation Technical
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More information on the socio-econo
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Participants Commercial Navigation
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. Number of stakeholders The St. La
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g. Trade flows and current market c
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Commercial navigation costs actuall
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5. Key Trends Provided below are hi
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Another adaptive measure to falling
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f. In Montreal, water levels impact
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U.S. Dollars ANNEX 2 Figure E-1: Sh
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Ice formation Ice cover stability i
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Hydroelectric Power Generation Tech
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Regionally, hydropower is seen main
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NYISO administers the Day Ahead Mar
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(b) The hydropower performance indi
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Synapse Energy Economics Inc. devel
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9. References The Hydroelectric Pow
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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Taste and odours performance indica
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Determining a critical elevation fo
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Water level in Pointe-Claire (m) Fi
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F. Municipal, Industrial and Domest
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7. Adaptive Behaviours The evaluati
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(d) History of the interest The Akw
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Under this project, the H&H TWG pro
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increases throughout the year. Mixi
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• build operational hydrology for
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Fan, Y. and Fay, D. (2001) Variatio
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I. Common Data Needs Technical Work
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Collection of detailed bathymetric
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• Metadata requirements Metadata
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FTP Support The first component of
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ANNEX 2 Figure J-3: Typical product
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ANNEX 3 Annex 3 Plan Descriptions a
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After discussions, the Plan Formula
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Table A-1: Constraints Applied to E
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Deviations The outflow calculated a
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The following list summarizes the a
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-3: Lake Ontario Av
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Lake Ontario level (m) 1.9 1.8 1.7
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-8: Cumulative Freq
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Total winter flow (10 m 3 /s - quar
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Plan 1958-DD - Appendix Detailed de
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SELECT CASE adjusted supply indicat
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If the Lake Ontario level is greate
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The inflow category (e.g., wet, dry
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Step 5 - Ice limit: Exactly the sam
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-18: Plan A + rule
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Other rules Plan B + has two additi
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Plan D + : Blended Benefits Objecti
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-19A: Lake Ontario
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-20: Lake Ontario s
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-21F: Long Sault Da
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Figure B-23 shows the three benefit
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Score Figure B-25: Score based on t
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Flow Constraints In addition to the
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This procedure is repeated until th
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Reference and Interest Specific Reg
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Plan 1958-D Regulation of Lake Onta
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4. The “I” limits, or ice limit
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Figure B-31 compares the scoring re
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Experimental variations In simpler
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C. Summary Tables of Plan Results T
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Historical Time Series (1900-2000)
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Environmental Results (Historical)
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Stochastic Supply Sequences Economi
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Table C-8: Economic results for can
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Table C-10: Economic results for ca
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Table C-12: Environmental results f
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Table C-14: Environmental results f
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ANNEX 4 Introduction Annex 4 Mitiga
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The great majority of potential act
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Great Lakes Advance Emergency Manag
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“(b) General Plan. (1) The Secret
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Adaptive Management Action Plan (AM
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difference in evaluations. If, for
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Coastal Monitoring Purpose: Monitor
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Adaptive Management Program Summary
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS ABIOTIC - Non-liv
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COASTAL EROSION - The wearing away
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EROSION - The wearing away of land
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HYDROLOGIC MODELING - The use of ph
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MEASURE, STRUCTURAL - Any measure t
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PUBLIC INFORMATION - Activities whe
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SUBSTRATE COMPOSITION - Categorical
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FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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