FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

More information on the socio-economic context, potentially significant benefits, key baseline conditions,
key trends, etc. applicable to commercial navigation is available in the Commercial Navigation Contextual
Narrative (Appendix F of the CNTWG Final Report).
ANNEX 2
The economic advisors recommended using shipping revenues under Plan 1958-DD as the economic
baseline for commercial navigation. However, given that no data was available on average annual commercial
Table D-1: Economic Baseline for Commercial
Navigation under Plan 1958-DD
($US million)
COMMERCIAL NAVIGATION $194.4
Lake Ontario $29.2
Seaway $108.8
Montreal down $56.4
Analysis
navigation revenues, the economic advisors suggested
using transportation costs under Plan 1958-DD. This
necessary substitution most likely underestimates
revenues. Fortunately, none of the candidate plans
create losses for navigation (or even significant
losses in any reach), so there is no need for an
accurate baseline on which to judge whether the
loss is disproportionate. The total average annual
transportation costs for commercial navigation
under Plan 1958-DD are shown in Table D1.
Regulation of Lake Ontario outflows affects commercial navigation on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence
River through Batiscan, Quebec, by changing lake and river levels and velocities in this portion of the Great
Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway. Impacts on commercial navigation occur not only from these changes but
also from the timing of these changes (seasonal and weekly) and the resulting currents and their affect
upon ice formation. Commercial navigation impacts can occur at both low and high water level extremes
and are also influenced on the lower St. Lawrence River by flow from the Ottawa River.
The hydraulic attributes that negatively impact commercial navigation in each of the three geographical
areas were identified. A total of forty two indicators or metrics were developed to track when impacts to
navigation occurred. The indicators were developed for high flow/water level conditions, low flow/water
level conditions, timing of discharges and gradients/velocities for each area. Metrics were also developed
that would enhance the formation of the stable ice cover important to winter navigation at the Port of
Montreal. Impacts on commercial vessels range from increasing vessel fuel consumption and transit
times due to strong velocities/currents, reductions in vessel speeds to minimize vessel wakes during high
level conditions, stoppage of vessel transits when velocities are too high for safe navigation, reductions in
cargo carrying capacity when water levels are low, etc. A complete description of these metrics is provided
in the document titled Planning Objectives and Performance Metrics for Evaluating Impacts of Lake Ontario
Outflow Regulation Plans on Commercial Navigation (Appendix A to the CNTWG Final Report).
The economic evaluation model included the following: origin/destination commodity movement data, the
physical system the vessels will use (ports, locks, channels), water level data, ice control parameters,
transit times (including speed limits, average lock waiting and transit times and delays), vessel operating
characteristics and vessel operating costs. Five major databases were required to run the model: the vessel
traffic database; the hydraulic database for each plan; a voyage profile database; a ship operating cost database
that includes fixed and variable ship operating costs as well as pilotage fees, Canadian Coast Guard fees and
Seaway tolls; and finally an individual vessel operating characteristics database that includes ship length,
mid-summer carrying capacity by commodity, tons per inch immersion factor, type of engine, etc.
Vessel operational data is stored about movements on each leg of a journey. A vessel may incur various
delays based on the 42 hydrologic trigger levels and gradients. The output of the simulation documents
the vessel transit times, including delays, the tonnage carried and the fuel consumption according to the
hydraulic conditions encountered by each vessel for the simulation period. The vessel operational data is
Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
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