FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

Table 14: Summary of Overall Economic Results by Interest for Four Climate Change Scenarios
C1 – Warm/Dry – Interest Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E
Total Net Benefits 2 34.89 -1.42 20.09 -4.91
Coastal -0.20 0.07 -0.06 0.14
Commercial Navigation 0.70 0.63 0.68 0.23
Hydropower 6.57 3.01 1.98 2.57
Recreational Boating 27.86 -5.09 17.49 -7.79
Municipal and Industrial Water Uses -0.03 -0.05 0.00 -0.05
C2 – Not So Warm/Dry – Interest Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E
Total Net Benefits 2 9.85 4.09 5.25 -34.03
Coastal 4.40 -0.93 0.11 -43.38
Commercial Navigation -0.61 0.73 1.41 5.08
Hydropower 0.40 4.39 0.99 12.22
Recreational Boating 5.46 -0.10 2.76 -7.95
Municipal and Industrial Water Uses 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.00
C3 – Warm/Wet – Interest Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E
Total Net Benefits 2 21.53 2.61 17.77 -2.46
Coastal -1.44 0.10 -0.26 -0.96
Commercial Navigation -0.06 -0.01 0.33 -0.24
Hydropower 4.95 4.17 4.11 3.67
Recreational Boating 18.11 -1.62 13.58 -4.88
Municipal and Industrial Water Uses -0.03 -0.05 0.00 -0.05
C4 – Not So Warm/Wet – Interest Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E
Total Net Benefits 2 8.33 11.78 9.65 -21.38
Coastal -3.42 -2.67 -0.90 -38.13
Commercial Navigation -0.61 2.74 3.06 5.21
Hydropower 7.29 8.89 4.01 17.95
Recreational Boating 5.07 2.83 3.48 -6.40
Municipal and Industrial Water Uses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FINAL REPORT
Notes to Table 14:
1. All impacts are measured relative to the estimated impact of Plan 1958-DD.
2. Economic figures represent the average annual impact relative to Plan 1958-DD and are reported in millions of
U.S. dollars and based on the four climate change sequences (C1-C4), with no discounting applied.
Performance Indicator Sensitivity Analyses and Validation
The Plan Formulation and Evaluation Group carried out a series of validations and sensitivity analyses
to test the question: “If we are wrong about our Performance Indicator analyses, would the decision
be different?”
Coastal
The coastal performance indicators on Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River are critical to
plan selection because it is so difficult to improve on the status quo and because there is an active south
shore lobby to prevent further damages. Hence, very small changes in these results can change a
plan’s acceptability.
Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
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