FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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The following list summarizes the additions and revisions made to the limits of Plan 1958-D to simulate the flow with deviations. • Ignore the ice formation maximum flow limit of Plan 1958-D during the last half of December. (This “I” limit was originally included in Plan 1958-D in anticipation of a hydropower plant at the outlet of Lake St. Louis that has not been built.) • Apply revised maximum outflow limits in the winter using a method similar to that used in Plan 1998. This limit is based on actual ice formation and ice roughness conditions rather than simply the date used in Plan 1958-D. • During the navigation season, at high Lake Ontario levels, use increased maximum outflow limits developed from experience and with regard for the level of Lake St. Lawrence. • Apply Plan 1998-type maximum outflow limits for Lac St. Louis to reduce flooding. • Use modified minimum outflow limits to simulate deviations to maintain levels for navigation. • Add rules to reduce the outflow under certain conditions in the spring and summer to raise Lake Ontario levels and/or store water for later use. • Add rules to accumulate and reset the deviations to zero. (This resets the computed Plan 1958-D level to the “actual” level that results from deviations.) ANNEX 3 A detailed description of these additions and revisions is included in the appendix to this report. 58-DD Compared with Recorded-Plan-1958-D-with-Deviations Flows As mentioned above, the adequacy of 58-DD as a model of the present regulation regime was tested by comparing the simulated and recorded levels and flows for the 1960-to-2001 period, with emphasis on the last decade (~1990 on). This was done using the recorded quarter-monthly net total supply series to Lake Ontario and the recorded ice status indicator, river roughness factors and added inflow to Lac St. Louis. Comparisons of the recorded Lake Ontario average quarter-monthly levels and those produced by 58-DD as values and differences are shown in Figures B-1 and B-2 for the 1960-2001 and 1990-2001 periods, respectively. The figures show that, on average, the 58-DD simulator reproduces the average Lake Ontario levels well, with a small bias to higher levels in winter. Figures B-3 and B-4 show comparisons of the recorded Lake Ontario average quarter-monthly outflows and those produced by 58-DD as values and differences for the same 1960-2001 and 1990-2001 periods. Again the 58-DD simulator reproduces the average Lake Ontario outflows well. The late December outflows for the 1990-2001 period average somewhat more than recorded, while those in early January are slightly lower. Note that for all figures in this section, the conversions from metric to Imperial are as follows: 1 m3/s = 35.31467 ft 3 /s and 1 metre = 3.28084 feet. Figure B-5 is a plot of the 1960-2001 time series of recorded and 58-DD-simulated quarter-monthly Lake Ontario levels. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the difference in levels in this period is 0.075 m (0.246 ft), with a maximum error of 0.22 m (0.722 ft) and a minimum error of -0.24 m (-0.787 ft). The average error is 0.006m (0.02 ft), meaning the average simulated Lake Ontario level is slightly higher than the actual. For the last decade, 1991 to 2001, the RMSE of the difference in levels is 0.057 m (0.187 ft), with an average error of 0.018 m (0.059 ft), a maximum error of 0.14 m (0.46 ft) and minimum error of -0.17 m (-0.56 ft). Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows 163
ANNEX 3 Figure B-1: Lake Ontario Average Quarter-Monthly Level 1960-2001 58-DD vs. Recorded Level (m IGLD 1985) 58-DD - Recorded Level (m) Level (m IGLD 1985) 58-DD - Recorded Level (m) Figure B-2: Lake Ontario Average Quarter-Monthly Level 1990-2001 58-DD vs. Recorded 164 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT current operating regi
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FINAL REPORT The current regulation
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FINAL REPORT If none of the candida
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FINAL REPORT Divergent Viewpoints T
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FINAL REPORT Transition to Implemen
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FINAL REPORT 10: Priority Performan
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FINAL REPORT a considerable amount
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FINAL REPORT The plan consists of a
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FINAL REPORT Figure 2: The Lake Ont
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FINAL REPORT 2. Criteria and regula
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FINAL REPORT water level and flow d
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FINAL REPORT Independent Review Ind
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FINAL REPORT Coastal Processes The
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FINAL REPORT The current estimate o
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FINAL REPORT Table 2: Economic Perf
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FINAL REPORT • Shore protection m
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FINAL REPORT Abbreviations STELLA -
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FINAL REPORT Approach 2: Optimizati
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FINAL REPORT Evaluation and Screeni
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FINAL REPORT • All performance in
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FINAL REPORT 5. During the Seaway n
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FINAL REPORT The programmed Plan 19
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FINAL REPORT Other efforts showed t
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FINAL REPORT Plan E generally produ
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FINAL REPORT An early version of Pl
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FINAL REPORT Plan Evaluations and C
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FINAL REPORT Table 3: Differences i
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Lake Ontario FINAL REPORT Figure 13
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St. Lawrence River at Lac St. Louis
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FINAL REPORT Figures 29, 30, 32 and
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Discharge (m 3 /s) Discharge (tcfs)
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Level (m IGLD 1985) Level (ft. IGLD
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FINAL REPORT Economic Results All p
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FINAL REPORT Disproportionate Loss
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FINAL REPORT Table 7: Percent Damag
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FINAL REPORT Table 8: Environmental
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FINAL REPORT Beyond the Summary Num
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FINAL REPORT Figure 36: Net economi
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FINAL REPORT On Lake Ontario, lakeb
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FINAL REPORT Coastal damages occur
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FINAL REPORT Figure 39: Wetland pla
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FINAL REPORT Sensitivity Analyses D
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FINAL REPORT Table 11: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Figure 43: Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Climate Change Analysi
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FINAL REPORT Table 13: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Validation The Plan Fo
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FINAL REPORT Municipal and Industri
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FINAL REPORT Interest-specific shor
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FINAL REPORT Change the Criteria an
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FINAL REPORT Through the advocacy o
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FINAL REPORT 5. People living along
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FINAL REPORT The Study Board consid
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FINAL REPORT • Ecohydrology is th
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FINAL REPORT Institutional issues d
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Data and
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FINAL REPORT The point of access to
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FINAL REPORT Possible Changes in th
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FINAL REPORT 106 Options for Managi
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FINAL REPORT People and Organizatio
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Technica
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FINAL REPORT Common Data and Inform
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FINAL REPORT BASIN; WATERSHED - The
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FINAL REPORT EROSION - The wearing
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FINAL REPORT INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL
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FINAL REPORT PHYSIOGRAPHY - A descr
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FINAL REPORT TECHNICAL WORK GROUP (
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FINAL REPORT Pacific International
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FINAL REPORT Savage, C. Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Doyon, B., et al. (200
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FINAL REPORT Planning and Managemen
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FINAL REPORT h. Information Managem
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ANNEXES Options for Managing Lake O
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ANNEXES Annex 3 - Plan Descriptions
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ANNEX 1 Annex 1 Pertinent Documents
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The Study Board shall provide optio
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Pertinent Document 2 Plan of Study
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trial regulation plans will need to
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WHEREAS pursuant to the said Applic
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(c) (d) (e) (f) (g) The works shall
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(i) (j) (k) Under regulation, the f
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(b) Control Facilities Adequate con
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ANNEX 2 2 Annex2 Technical Work Gro
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Hydrology, supplies Historical and
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Performance Indicators As noted ear
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Table A-2: Lower St. Lawrence River
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Table A-3: Weighting Scheme for Eco
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In the St. Lawrence River, high spr
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References Armellin, A., Mingelbier
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A. Environmental Contextual Narrati
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types. Analyses of historical aeria
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9. References Listed in text Baedke
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B. Recreational Boating and Tourism
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In addition to recreational boating
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Summary of Key Findings Based on it
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ANNEX 2 Figure B-3: Alexandria Bay
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Participants Recreational Boating a
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Communities along New York waters v
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On the Canadian side, a telephone s
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3. Potentially Significant Benefit
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The average horsepower of motor boa
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Noden, D. and Brown, T. (1975) The
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The Lower St. Lawrence River In com
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Table C-1: Unit Costs for the Const
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Beach Access The beach access perfo
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Since the value of shore protection
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-6: Map of percent
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ANNEX 2 Figure C-8: Map of downstre
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References Baird, W.F. and Associat
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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Given the current land use policies
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. In the case of the shore protecti
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e. With the ever increasing urban d
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8. Risk Assessment/Sensitivity Anal
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C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
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This interest suffered badly during
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5. Key Trends Construction along ri
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Finally, from a computational stand
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D. Commercial Navigation Technical
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More information on the socio-econo
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Participants Commercial Navigation
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. Number of stakeholders The St. La
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g. Trade flows and current market c
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Commercial navigation costs actuall
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5. Key Trends Provided below are hi
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Another adaptive measure to falling
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f. In Montreal, water levels impact
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U.S. Dollars ANNEX 2 Figure E-1: Sh
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Ice formation Ice cover stability i
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Hydroelectric Power Generation Tech
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C. Summary Tables of Plan Results T
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Historical Time Series (1900-2000)
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Environmental Results (Historical)
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Stochastic Supply Sequences Economi
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Table C-8: Economic results for can
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Table C-10: Economic results for ca
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Table C-12: Environmental results f
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Table C-14: Environmental results f
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ANNEX 4 Introduction Annex 4 Mitiga
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The great majority of potential act
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Great Lakes Advance Emergency Manag
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“(b) General Plan. (1) The Secret
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Adaptive Management Action Plan (AM
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difference in evaluations. If, for
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Coastal Monitoring Purpose: Monitor
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Adaptive Management Program Summary
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS ABIOTIC - Non-liv
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COASTAL EROSION - The wearing away
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EROSION - The wearing away of land
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HYDROLOGIC MODELING - The use of ph
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MEASURE, STRUCTURAL - Any measure t
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PUBLIC INFORMATION - Activities whe
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SUBSTRATE COMPOSITION - Categorical
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FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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