FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

ANNEX 3
Four Extreme Stochastic Sequences (S1-S4)
Table C-7: Economic results for candidate plans by interest and region based on the extreme
stochastic supply sequence S1—the century with the most severe Lake Ontario
supply drought
S1 – Extremely Dry (Economic – Average Annual $M)
Average Annual Net Benefits ($M) Plan A + Plan B + Plan D + Plan E
Total $17.53 $2.62 $10.84 -$21.41
COASTAL $0.46 -$1.26 $0.35 -$21.52
Lake Ontario $0.76 -$0.98 $0.30 -$19.65
Shore Protection Maintenance $0.86 -$0.54 $0.27 -$10.06
Erosion to Unprotected Developed Parcels -$0.12 -$0.05 $0.01 -$0.21
Flooding $0.02 -$0.38 $0.02 -$9.38
Upper St. Lawrence River $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1.41
Flooding $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$1.41
St. Lawrence -$0.31 -$0.28 $0.05 -$0.46
Flooding -$0.21 -$0.15 $0.02 -$0.25
Shore Protection Maintenance -$0.10 -$0.13 $0.03 -$0.21
COMMERCIAL NAVIGATION $0.59 $1.79 $1.60 $3.06
Lake Ontario $0.02 -$0.01 $0.07 -$0.09
Seaway $0.75 $1.99 $1.57 $3.25
Montreal down -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.04 -$0.11
HYDROPOWER $3.14 $4.12 $1.33 $7.86
NYPA-OPG $3.22 $2.33 $0.96 $4.98
Hydro Quebec -$0.08 $1.78 $0.37 $2.88
RECREATIONAL BOATING $13.34 -$2.03 $7.56 -$10.81
Above Dam $11.04 -$1.84 $6.47 -$11.81
Lake Ontario $8.89 -$1.50 $5.23 -$9.40
Alex Bay $1.90 -$0.46 $0.99 -$2.28
Ogdensburg $0.21 $0.04 $0.18 -$0.20
Lake St. Lawrence $0.04 $0.08 $0.07 $0.08
Below Dam $2.30 -$0.19 $1.09 $1.00
Lac St. Louis $1.04 -$0.10 $0.40 $0.48
Montreal $1.01 $0.05 $0.53 $0.46
Lac St. Pierre $0.25 -$0.14 $0.16 $0.06
M&I $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
SL One-time infrastructure costs $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
LSL Water Quality Investments $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Notes to Table C-7:
1. Figures represent the average annual impact relative to Plan-1958-DD, in millions of U.S. dollars. Blue indicates
a positive net benefit relative to 1958-DD and red indicates a negative net benefit relative to 1958-DD.
2. S1 through S4 represent four separate 101-year extreme centuries selected from the 50,000-year stochastic series,
where S1 is extremely dry, S2 is extremely wet and has a large range, S3 is similar to historical and S4 has the
longest drought.
3. Plan E is shown for comparison purposes only to represent the natural flow condition. Plan E is not a candidate plan.
220 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows