FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

• build operational hydrology forecast systems that estimate and use initial hydrological conditions and
the use probabilistic meteorology outlooks, to generate extended Great Lakes probabilistic hydrology
and lake level outlooks for use by decision makers to evaluate the risk associated with their regulation
decisions; and
• incorporate probabilistic hydrologic forecasts into regulation so that consideration of risk becomes
part of the decision process.
ANNEX 2
Recommendations for future work in applying risk-based management to Lake Ontario regulation for the
present IJC Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Study are as follows:
• identify and develop technical applications and tools for risk-based decision making with a focus on
linkages between hydrologic variables and decision-making parameters, and reformulation of current
tools (Criterion k, lake level forecasts, risk-optimized regulation plan, etc.);
• apply the tools to retrospective case studies to assess their utility and identify the acceptable levels
of risk of the various interests;
• develop an effective means of communicating risk-based information to policy-makers, agency
operators, and the public; and
• implement the tools and objectively measure their performance.
Temperature Modeling of Selected Areas
The objective of this project was to develop and make operational a tool or suite of tools capable of
computing the water temperature regime of Lake Ontario, the Bay of Quinte and the upper St. Lawrence
River. The water temperature model(s) were applied to develop several time series of water temperature
data for use by the Environmental TWG, in combination with water level data, to assess the impact of
regulation on the fish species in the region.
For the purpose of analysis, Lake Ontario was divided into three zones, the Lake zone, St. Lawrence River
zone and the Bay of Quinte zone. For the Lake zone, modeling was carried out using a quasi 3-dimensional
model developed at the Ohio State University. The St. Lawrence River zone was analyzed at Clarkson
University in Potsdam using a thermal budget approach. This zone also provided thermal load for the
downstream reaches of the St. Lawrence River. The Bay of Quinte zone was analyzed by Environment
Canada using a coupled hydrodynamic model with a thermal/heat budget component.
The results from the three components were translated into Access databases and provided to the fish
biologists for analysis of the fish models.
Other Projects
Several other projects were required to fulfill the objectives of the H&H TWG, among them the following
three notable initiatives:
• A prediction model to account for the effects of ice on flow retardation and adjustments required for
climate change scenarios;
• A hydrologic forecast model to simulate the impact of flow from the lower tributaries and its routing
in the lower reaches; and
• Improvements in the results of the U.S.-based watersheds on flow contributions below the
Moses-Saunders dam. Five watersheds that drain below the dam were calibrated to improve the
modeling and prediction capabilities.
Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
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