FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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5. Key Trends Provided below are historical tonnages for the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Port of Montreal. The Seaway shows a cyclical trend. Near term traffic levels in the Seaway (next five years) are expected to be at least equal to 2003 and 2004 levels. The tonnages moved during the 2004 season are estimated at 30,494,000 tonnes (33.6 million tons). Montreal tonnages show a moderate growth, most of which takes place in container traffic. Montreal tonnages are expected to continue to grow. Growth is expected to be derived mainly in the container sector and an increase in liquid bulk traffic. Metric Tonnes (000’s) Transits Tonnes (000’s) ANNEX 2 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows 101
ANNEX 2 Key trends and issues that may affect the system include the following: • Continued trend toward containerization; • Short-sea shipping to alleviate highway congestion and facilitate trade, improve utilization of facilities and reduce greenhouse emissions; • Demand for year-round service, one stop, door-to-door supply chain logistics; • Seaway operating at approximately 50% of its capacity; • GL/SLS Study to be completed; • Ontario decision to close coal-based electricity production; • Aging infrastructure – Seaway, Great Lakes Ports, Vessels; • Fewer Seaway-sized ocean vessels. 6. Expected Consequences of Changes of Regulation Dependable and predictable water levels within the existing parameters (or better) are required to maintain and possibly grow this segment of transportation. Because of the competitive nature of this industry, low water levels or unacceptably high water levels or flows could negatively impact the shipping industry as a whole and may cause some shippers to use other modes of transportation. Once lost to other modes, regaining this business would be very difficult. 7. Adaptive Behaviours There are many responses to lower water levels that the shipping community can initiate depending on the magnitude and the duration of the low water event. If a low water event occurs and is anticipated to be of a short duration and only in a very specific area of the system, vessels can reduce speeds in that section and still maintain the amount of commodity carried. This increases transit times but not number of vessel trips. This adaptation also has limitations, since vessels must, at all times, maintain sufficient speed to not impact manoeuvrability and safety. If the low water event is significant and is expected to last an extended period, vessel draft may be reduced. This will result in increased costs since more trips will be required to move the same tonnage, assuming vessel availability. Generally, the Seaway and the industry can adapt to low water conditions when basin supplies are low for extended periods, as all users must, but plan-induced low levels would not be looked upon favourably. However, if falling water levels cause large reductions in draft and are anticipated to last for an extended period of time, the last approach is deepening of channels and harbors. This option has many concerns associated with it. The feasibility of dredging would require environmental assessments, including sediment quality, identification of depositional areas, possible containment, defining of costs and who assumes the costs. For the Port of Montreal traffic, dredging is not an option in the case of a reduction in water column. The last channel dredging ($10M) was undertaken only after four years of debate with environmental groups and agencies. In the extremely unlikely event that the Port of Montreal would obtain permission to dredge even deeper, the cost would be significantly greater since, in some areas, channel bottoms have reached rock and channel deepening would necessitate changes to the port's existing infrastructure (docks). Some proactive mitigation dredging was done in 1999 for existing channel depths. The Port funded the total cost of the effort. The dredging was done to accommodate large vessels to handle the growing volumes of traffic, and also to make the route less vulnerable to water fluctuations under 1958-DD. Any plan that would provide less water than 1958-DD would negate the positive impacts of dredging in 1999. 102 Options for Managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Water Levels and Flows
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT Options for Managing L
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FINAL REPORT current operating regi
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FINAL REPORT The current regulation
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FINAL REPORT If none of the candida
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FINAL REPORT Divergent Viewpoints T
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FINAL REPORT Transition to Implemen
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FINAL REPORT 10: Priority Performan
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FINAL REPORT a considerable amount
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FINAL REPORT The plan consists of a
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FINAL REPORT Figure 2: The Lake Ont
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FINAL REPORT 2. Criteria and regula
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FINAL REPORT water level and flow d
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FINAL REPORT Independent Review Ind
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FINAL REPORT Coastal Processes The
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FINAL REPORT The current estimate o
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FINAL REPORT Table 2: Economic Perf
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FINAL REPORT • Shore protection m
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FINAL REPORT Abbreviations STELLA -
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FINAL REPORT Approach 2: Optimizati
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FINAL REPORT Evaluation and Screeni
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FINAL REPORT • All performance in
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FINAL REPORT 5. During the Seaway n
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FINAL REPORT The programmed Plan 19
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FINAL REPORT Other efforts showed t
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FINAL REPORT Plan E generally produ
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FINAL REPORT An early version of Pl
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FINAL REPORT Plan Evaluations and C
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FINAL REPORT Table 3: Differences i
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Lake Ontario FINAL REPORT Figure 13
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St. Lawrence River at Lac St. Louis
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FINAL REPORT Figures 29, 30, 32 and
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Discharge (m 3 /s) Discharge (tcfs)
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Level (m IGLD 1985) Level (ft. IGLD
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FINAL REPORT Economic Results All p
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FINAL REPORT Disproportionate Loss
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FINAL REPORT Table 7: Percent Damag
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FINAL REPORT Table 8: Environmental
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FINAL REPORT Beyond the Summary Num
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FINAL REPORT Figure 36: Net economi
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FINAL REPORT On Lake Ontario, lakeb
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FINAL REPORT Coastal damages occur
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FINAL REPORT Figure 39: Wetland pla
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FINAL REPORT Sensitivity Analyses D
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FINAL REPORT Table 11: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Figure 43: Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Climate Change Analysi
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FINAL REPORT Table 13: Summary of E
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FINAL REPORT Validation The Plan Fo
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FINAL REPORT Municipal and Industri
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FINAL REPORT Interest-specific shor
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FINAL REPORT Change the Criteria an
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FINAL REPORT Through the advocacy o
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FINAL REPORT 5. People living along
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FINAL REPORT The Study Board consid
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FINAL REPORT • Ecohydrology is th
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FINAL REPORT Institutional issues d
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Data and
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FINAL REPORT The point of access to
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FINAL REPORT Possible Changes in th
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FINAL REPORT 106 Options for Managi
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FINAL REPORT People and Organizatio
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FINAL REPORT Environmental Technica
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FINAL REPORT Common Data and Inform
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FINAL REPORT BASIN; WATERSHED - The
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FINAL REPORT EROSION - The wearing
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FINAL REPORT INTEGRATED ECOLOGICAL
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FINAL REPORT PHYSIOGRAPHY - A descr
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FINAL REPORT TECHNICAL WORK GROUP (
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FINAL REPORT Pacific International
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FINAL REPORT Savage, C. Lake Ontari
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FINAL REPORT Doyon, B., et al. (200
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FINAL REPORT Planning and Managemen
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FINAL REPORT h. Information Managem
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ANNEXES Options for Managing Lake O
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ANNEXES Annex 3 - Plan Descriptions
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ANNEX 1 Annex 1 Pertinent Documents
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The Study Board shall provide optio
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Pertinent Document 2 Plan of Study
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trial regulation plans will need to
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WHEREAS pursuant to the said Applic
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(c) (d) (e) (f) (g) The works shall
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(i) (j) (k) Under regulation, the f
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(b) Control Facilities Adequate con
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ANNEX 2 2 Annex2 Technical Work Gro
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Hydrology, supplies Historical and
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Performance Indicators As noted ear
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Table A-2: Lower St. Lawrence River
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Table A-3: Weighting Scheme for Eco
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In the St. Lawrence River, high spr
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References Armellin, A., Mingelbier
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A. Environmental Contextual Narrati
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types. Analyses of historical aeria
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9. References Listed in text Baedke
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B. Recreational Boating and Tourism
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In addition to recreational boating
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Summary of Key Findings Based on it
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ANNEX 2 Figure B-3: Alexandria Bay
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Participants Recreational Boating a
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Communities along New York waters v
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On the Canadian side, a telephone s
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Page 238 and 239: References Baird, W.F. and Associat
Page 240 and 241: C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
Page 242 and 243: Given the current land use policies
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Page 246 and 247: e. With the ever increasing urban d
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Page 250 and 251: C. Coastal Processes Contextual Nar
Page 252 and 253: This interest suffered badly during
Page 254 and 255: 5. Key Trends Construction along ri
Page 256 and 257: Finally, from a computational stand
Page 258 and 259: D. Commercial Navigation Technical
Page 260 and 261: More information on the socio-econo
Page 262 and 263: Participants Commercial Navigation
Page 264 and 265: . Number of stakeholders The St. La
Page 266 and 267: g. Trade flows and current market c
Page 268 and 269: Commercial navigation costs actuall
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Page 274 and 275: f. In Montreal, water levels impact
Page 276 and 277: U.S. Dollars ANNEX 2 Figure E-1: Sh
Page 278 and 279: Ice formation Ice cover stability i
Page 280 and 281: Hydroelectric Power Generation Tech
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Page 302 and 303: 7. Adaptive Behaviours The evaluati
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Page 308 and 309: increases throughout the year. Mixi
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Page 314 and 315: I. Common Data Needs Technical Work
Page 316 and 317: Collection of detailed bathymetric
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FTP Support The first component of
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ANNEX 2 Figure J-3: Typical product
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ANNEX 3 Annex 3 Plan Descriptions a
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After discussions, the Plan Formula
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Table A-1: Constraints Applied to E
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Deviations The outflow calculated a
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The following list summarizes the a
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-3: Lake Ontario Av
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Lake Ontario level (m) 1.9 1.8 1.7
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-8: Cumulative Freq
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Total winter flow (10 m 3 /s - quar
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Plan 1958-DD - Appendix Detailed de
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SELECT CASE adjusted supply indicat
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If the Lake Ontario level is greate
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The inflow category (e.g., wet, dry
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Step 5 - Ice limit: Exactly the sam
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-18: Plan A + rule
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Other rules Plan B + has two additi
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Plan D + : Blended Benefits Objecti
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-19A: Lake Ontario
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-20: Lake Ontario s
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ANNEX 3 Figure B-21F: Long Sault Da
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Figure B-23 shows the three benefit
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Score Figure B-25: Score based on t
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Flow Constraints In addition to the
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This procedure is repeated until th
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Reference and Interest Specific Reg
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Plan 1958-D Regulation of Lake Onta
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4. The “I” limits, or ice limit
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Figure B-31 compares the scoring re
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Experimental variations In simpler
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C. Summary Tables of Plan Results T
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Historical Time Series (1900-2000)
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Environmental Results (Historical)
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Stochastic Supply Sequences Economi
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Table C-8: Economic results for can
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Table C-10: Economic results for ca
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Table C-12: Environmental results f
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Table C-14: Environmental results f
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ANNEX 4 Introduction Annex 4 Mitiga
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The great majority of potential act
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Great Lakes Advance Emergency Manag
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“(b) General Plan. (1) The Secret
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Adaptive Management Action Plan (AM
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difference in evaluations. If, for
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Coastal Monitoring Purpose: Monitor
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Adaptive Management Program Summary
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS ABIOTIC - Non-liv
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COASTAL EROSION - The wearing away
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EROSION - The wearing away of land
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HYDROLOGIC MODELING - The use of ph
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MEASURE, STRUCTURAL - Any measure t
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PUBLIC INFORMATION - Activities whe
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SUBSTRATE COMPOSITION - Categorical
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FINAL REPORT - International Joint Commission

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