ICT and e-Business in the Pulp, Paper and Paper ... - empirica

Pulp, paper and paper products
4.4 ICT impact on the demand for paper
4.4.1 Introduction
For the P&P industry, ICT are not only relevant as a means of increasing the efficiency of
business processes, but also in terms of their impact on demand for paper and paper
products. In theory, the substitution of paper-based information, communication and
documentation processes by electronic services and processes could, in the long run,
negatively affect demand. This section explores these issues and draws conclusions on
the likely overall effect of ICT on paper consumption.
A quantitative assessment of the future demand, e.g. by scenario modelling, would be far
beyond the scope of this study (if possible at all). Important assumptions that would have
to be taken for the various scenarios would inevitably be quite speculative. However,
some conclusions can be drawn from evidence about the developments of paper demand
in the past and under different economic conditions, and from several studies that
explored the impact of ICT on paper demand in offices and households.
In addition, some general arguments are proposed as regards the future demand for
paper, since it is difficult to fully separate the influence of ICT and information society
developments from other factors that are likely to have an impact on aggregate demand.
Development of paper consumption in Europe
CEPI monitors the total consumption of pulp and paper in its member countries. Results
show that growth in paper consumption outperformed GDP growth since 1991. While
GDP increased by about 25% between 1991 and 2004, paper consumption grew by
about 40% in the same period (see Exhibit 4-11). Considering that there was only a slight
growth in population, it is evident that per-capita consumption has substantially
increased. This finding is also important as the increase since 1995/96 occurred in
parallel with the rise of ICT and the internet in offices and households.
Exhibit 4-11: Increase in paper consumption since 1991 compared to GDP and population
(indexed, in CEPI countries)
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Population GDP Paper consumption
Source: CEPI (2004)
147