ICT and e-Business in the Pulp, Paper and Paper ... - empirica

Pulp, paper and paper products
A more conservative scenario is that total demand in Europe will continue to increase at a
moderate growth rate, but that the type of paper demand may change. On the one hand,
there will be an increased demand for better quality paper; on the other hand,
environmental concerns and awareness may also drive recycling and the use of
recovered paper. If this is the case, paper makers will have to position themselves even
more than today as producers either of high quality or recycled material. To what extent
these two requirements can possibly be combined by means of modern production
technology remains to be seen.
On a global scale, world markets for paper and paper products will certainly continue to
grow fast, and particularly in Asia and South America. While local supply will be available
for bulk products, the growth in these countries should nevertheless continue to be an
interesting market opportunity for producers in the EU. However, their competitive
advantage derived from capabilities of high quality production is gradually eroding, as the
producers in emerging economies are learning fast and modernising their facilities.
4.4.3 Summary and conclusions
In 2004, the paper industry in European countries represented by CEPI 113 produced an
output of about 100 million tonnes of paper and about 43 million tonnes of pulp.
Production of paper and board increased by 4.5%, and demand grew by 2.4%. Thus,
growth in production was higher than in the countries of major competitors (see Section
2.2.1).
However, it is frequently assumed that the fast adoption of ICT by households and
businesses could lead to substitution of paper or paper-based products in some
areas in the future. Important factors that could decrease the demand for paper include
the substitution of classified advertising in newspapers by online services, the general
decline of the traditional newspaper industry in advanced economies, and the
replacement of formerly paper-based media products (e.g. encyclopaedia, scientific
journals) by electronic equivalents.
On the other hand, the net impact of all factors that have an influence on demand for
paper rather points at a continued growth in paper demand and consumption. On a
global scale, the rise of the emerging economies in Asia and South America could even
lead to a significant growth of consumption in the near future. The gap between current
consumption per head between emerging and developed economies is still huge.
Moreover, a projection of figures on paper consumption in Europe since the mid 1990s
indicates a moderate growth even in advanced economies.
If this holds true, the environmental impact of a possible sharp increase in global paper
production could be a more legitimate concern for policy than a decrease in consumption
in some parts of the world.
113 See section 2.2.1
153