Understanding global security - Peter Hough

NATURAL THREATS TO SECURITY
We cannot stop the forces of nature, but we can and must prevent them from causing major
social and economic disasters.
Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General 1999 (Annan 1999)
Natural disasters
A major source of insecurity for much of the world’s population is rooted in the
natural, non-living world, from physical phenomena originating in the earth’s interior,
its atmosphere and even from beyond our planet. The phrase ‘Acts of God’
encapsulates the notion of human helplessness in the face of such dangers which are
out of our control, but the truth is that natural disasters are as much socio-political
as geological or meteorological phenomena. ‘[A] disaster is the intersection of two
opposing forces: those processes generating vulnerability on one side, and physical
exposure to a hazard on the other’ (Blaikie et al. 1994: 22). It is socio-political factors
that make people vulnerable to hazardous natural events. The fact that people live in
places known to be prone to disaster, whether through their own choice, ignorance
or compulsion, is one such factor. Another is the capacity and/or willingness of
governing authorities to take steps to alleviate the potential human cost of events
known to be likely to occur.
Table 8.1 illustrates not only the horrific scale of human casualties that can
accrue from natural disasters but also the importance of the socio-political component
in such events. The Huang Ho and other Chinese rivers are more prone to dramatically
bursting their banks than most of the world’s waterways but this has been well
known in China for centuries. Overpopulation, poor government and the human
propensity to risk residing in such hazardous places for the benefits of farming on
the fertile soils deposited by the flooding are major contributors to the shocking
death toll that has accumulated over time.
Table 8.1 The ten worst natural disasters in history
Place Date Type Fatalities
1 Huang Ho River, China 1931 Flood 3.7 million a, b
2 China1959 Flood 2 million b
3 Upper Egypt and Syria 1201 Earthquake 1.1 million d
4 Huang Ho River, China 1887 Flood 900 000 c
5 Shaanxi, Shanxi and Henan, China 1556 Earthquake 830 000 c
6 Huang Ho River, China 1938 Flood 500 000 b
7 China1939 Flood 500 000 b
8 Bangladesh 1970 Cyclone 300 000 b
9 Tang-shan, China 1976 Earthquake 242 000 a
10 Nan-shan, China 1927 Earthquake 200 000 a
Sources: a Ash (2001), b Disaster Center (2003), c Castello-Cortes and Feldman (1996), d NGDC
(2003).
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