Educational Finance in Thailand - UNESCO Bangkok

Appendix 2
Projections of Costs of Expanding Basic Education to 12 Years
a. By making some simplifying assumptions it is possible to estimate the increased costs
of expanding basic education to 12 years. To calculate these estimates, it was assumed
that the main goals of expansion would be to increase lower secondary participation rates
to over 90 per cent by 2005, and to increase upper secondary participation rates to over 50
per cent by the same year. The data shown in Table A1 are based on these assumptions,
calculating the increases from the estimated baseline data for 1999 shown in the first
column (from ONEC and MOE data). It is further assumed that the first year of
implementation of the expansion policy would be 2000, and the increases in enrollments
would be gradual, but at a constant rate over the time period involved. The parameters for
the calculations and rates of increase are shown in Table A2. A constant inflation rate of 5
per cent was assumed, and constant repetition and drop out rates as well. It was also
assumed that the scale economies possible as a result of increased enrollments would be
offset by the additional costs of expansion of facilities and infrastructure. Therefore the
per-pupil costs are simply inflated by the assumed annual rate.
Table A1 – Estimates of Impacts of Increasing Basic Education to 12 Years
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Primary Enrollment
6,600,000 6,666,000 6,732,660 6,799,987 6,867,986 6,936,666 7,006,033
Lower Sec. Enrollment
3,700,000 5,121,720 5,416,912 5,691,036 5,977,898 6,279,185 6,595,655
Upper Sec. Enrollment
1,800,000 1,758,700 2,543,513 2,821,057 3,046,115 3,280,526 3,532,101
Lower Sec. Partic. Rate 73.0% 75.9% 79.0% 82.1% 85.4% 88.8% 92.4%
Upper Sec. Partic. Rate 44.0% 45.1% 46.2% 47.4% 48.6% 49.8% 51.0%
Cost/primary enrollee
9,300 9,765 10,253 10,766 11,304 11,869 12,463
Cost/Lower Sec. enrollee
11,000 11,550 12,128 12,734 13,371 14,039 14,741
Cost/Upper Sec. enrollee
14,400 15,120 15,876 16,670 17,503 18,378 19,297
Total Lower Sec. (Million)
40,700 59,156 65,694 72,469 79,928 88,154 97,227
Total Upper Sec. (Million)
25,920 26,592 40,381 47,026 53,317 60,291 68,160
Increase Lower Sec. Cost 45% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Increase Upper Sec. Cost 3% 52% 16% 13% 13% 13%
151