Educational Finance in Thailand - UNESCO Bangkok

Table A2 – Parameters for Cost Projection Calculations
Analysis Parameters
Annual Increase in Primary Enrollment 1.0%
Annual Increase in LS Partic. Rate 4.0%
Annual Increase in US Partic. Rate 2.5%
LS Repetition Rate 7.0%
US Repetition Rate 10.0%
LS Drop-out Rate 4.0%
US Drop-out Rate 5.0%
Inflation rate 5.0%
b. To show the overall increases, two sets of projections are show in the Figures below.
The first shows cost increases if the Government share of the costs remains unchanged.
The second Figure shows the results of increasing the local government share from 1 per
cent to 15 per cent over the projection period. In either case the overall increases are quite
substantial. The overall expenditure increases in such a projection are sensitive to the
assumptions about rates of change, however. Different rates of inflation or differing rates
of enrollment increase or cost decreases can have a large effect on the actual cost figures.
It is quite clear, nonetheless, that the increase in entitlement to basic education could
produce a large increase in secondary school enrollments. This would, in turn generate
substantial increases in overall costs for education and require adjustments in both overall
budgets and revenue policies. The basic policy of expending basic education therefore
will require considerable additional cost analysis and planning to avoid serious
disruptions of the overall financing of education or negative impacts on quality.
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