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Bring on tomorrow - AIG.com

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ITEM 7 / RESULTS OF OPERATIONS.....................................................................................................................................................................................Asbestos and Envir<strong>on</strong>mental Reserves..............................................................................................................................................................................................Third-Party Actuarial Review of Asbestos Loss Reserve EstimatesAs part of our more in-depth <strong>com</strong>prehensive loss-reserve review in the fourth quarter of 2010, we c<strong>on</strong>ducted a seriesof top-down and ground-up reserve analyses to determine the appropriate loss reserve estimate for our asbestosexposures. To ensure the most <strong>com</strong>prehensive analysis possible, we engaged an independent third-party actuarialfirm to assist in assessing these exposures. The ground-up study c<strong>on</strong>ducted by this firm used a proprietary model tocalculate the loss exposure <strong>on</strong> an insured-by-insured basis. We believe that the accuracy of the reserve estimate isgreatly enhanced through the <strong>com</strong>binati<strong>on</strong> of the actuarial firm’s industry modeling techniques and industryknowledge and our own specific account-level experience.Annually, we c<strong>on</strong>sider a number of factors and recent experience in additi<strong>on</strong> to the results of the top-down andground-up analyses performed for asbestos and envir<strong>on</strong>mental reserves. We c<strong>on</strong>sidered the significant uncertaintythat remains as to our ultimate liability for asbestos and envir<strong>on</strong>mental claims, which is due to several factors:• the l<strong>on</strong>g latency period between asbestos exposure and disease manifestati<strong>on</strong>, leading to the potential forinvolvement of multiple policy periods for individual claims;• claims filed under the n<strong>on</strong>-aggregate premises or operati<strong>on</strong>s secti<strong>on</strong> of general liability policies;• the number of insureds seeking bankruptcy protecti<strong>on</strong> and the effect of prepackaged bankruptcies;• diverging legal interpretati<strong>on</strong>s; and• the difficulty in estimating the allocati<strong>on</strong> of remediati<strong>on</strong> cost am<strong>on</strong>g various parties with respect to envir<strong>on</strong>mentalclaims.As a result of the top-down and ground-up reserve analyses and the factors c<strong>on</strong>sidered, asbestos reserves werestrengthened by $3.3 billi<strong>on</strong> gross and $1.5 billi<strong>on</strong> net in 2010.In 2011, we <strong>com</strong>pleted a top-down report year projecti<strong>on</strong> as well as a market share projecti<strong>on</strong> of our indicatedasbestos and envir<strong>on</strong>mental loss reserves. These projecti<strong>on</strong>s c<strong>on</strong>sisted of a series of tests performed separately forasbestos and for envir<strong>on</strong>mental exposures.For asbestos, these tests project the losses expected to be reported through 2027. This projecti<strong>on</strong> was based <strong>on</strong> theactual losses reported through 2011 and the expected future loss emergence for these claims. Three scenarios weretested, with a series of assumpti<strong>on</strong>s ranging from more optimistic to more c<strong>on</strong>servative.For envir<strong>on</strong>mental claims, a <strong>com</strong>parable series of frequency/severity tests were produced. We updated the top-downreport year projecti<strong>on</strong>s in 2012. In this updated projecti<strong>on</strong>, envir<strong>on</strong>mental claims from future report years (i.e., IBNR)are projected out ten years, through the year 2022.As a result of the studies, we determined that no additi<strong>on</strong>al strengthening was required for asbestos andenvir<strong>on</strong>mental in 2011.After we carefully c<strong>on</strong>sidered the recent experience <strong>com</strong>pared to the results of the 2010 ground-up analysis, as wellas all of the above factors, no adjustment to gross and net asbestos reserves was recognized in 2012. Additi<strong>on</strong>allyin 2012, a moderate amount of incurred loss pertaining to the asbestos loss reserve discount is reflected in the tablebelow and is related to the reserves not subject to the NICO reinsurance agreement.Up<strong>on</strong> <strong>com</strong>pleti<strong>on</strong> of the envir<strong>on</strong>mental top-down analysis performed in the fourth quarter of 2012, we c<strong>on</strong>cluded thatthe $75 milli<strong>on</strong> net reserve strengthening recognized in the first half of 2012 was adequate.In additi<strong>on</strong> to the U.S. asbestos and envir<strong>on</strong>mental reserve amounts shown in the tables below, <strong>AIG</strong> PropertyCasualty also has asbestos reserves relating to foreign risks written by n<strong>on</strong>-U.S. entities of $140 milli<strong>on</strong> gross and$116 milli<strong>on</strong> net as of December 31, 2012. The asbestos reserves relating to n<strong>on</strong>-U.S. risks written by n<strong>on</strong>-U.S.entities were $233 milli<strong>on</strong> gross and $165 milli<strong>on</strong> net as of December 31, 2011...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................96 <strong>AIG</strong> 2012 Form 10-K

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