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Bring on tomorrow - AIG.com

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ITEM 7 / CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES.....................................................................................................................................................................................Class of Business or Category and Actuarial MethodApplicati<strong>on</strong> of Actuarial MethodMortgage GuarantyWe test mortgage guaranty reserves using loss development The reserve analysis projects ultimate losses for claims withinmethods, supplemented by an internal claim analysis byeach of several categories of delinquency based <strong>on</strong> actualactuaries and staff who specialize in the mortgage guaranty historical experience, using primarily a frequency/severity lossbusiness.development approach. Additi<strong>on</strong>al reserve tests are alsoemployed, such as tests measuring losses as a percent of riskin force. Reserves are reviewed separately for each line ofbusiness c<strong>on</strong>sidering the loss development characteristics,volume of claim data available and applicability of variousactuarial methods to each line.Reserves for mortgage guaranty insurance losses and lossadjustment expenses are established for reported mortgageloan delinquencies and estimates of delinquencies that havebeen incurred but have not been reported by loan servicers,based up<strong>on</strong> historical reporting trends. We establish reservesusing a percentage of the c<strong>on</strong>tractual liability (for eachdelinquent loan reported) that is based up<strong>on</strong> projected claimexperience for each category of delinquency, c<strong>on</strong>sistent intotal with the overall reserve estimate.Mortgage Guaranty losses and loss adjustment expenseshave been adversely affected by macroec<strong>on</strong>omic events, suchas declining home prices and increasing unemployment.Because these macroec<strong>on</strong>omic events are subject to adverseor favorable change, the determinati<strong>on</strong> of the ultimate lossesand loss adjustment expenses requires a high degree ofjudgment. Resp<strong>on</strong>ding to these adverse macroec<strong>on</strong>omicinfluences, numerous government and lender loanmodificati<strong>on</strong> programs have been implemented to mitigatemortgage losses. The loan modificati<strong>on</strong> programs haveproduced additi<strong>on</strong>al cures of delinquent loans in 2012 thatmay not c<strong>on</strong>tinue in 2013 as some modificati<strong>on</strong> programs arephased out or retired. In additi<strong>on</strong>, these loan modificati<strong>on</strong>smay re-default resulting in new losses for Mortgage Guaranty.Occurrences of fraudulent loans, underwriting violati<strong>on</strong>s, andother deviati<strong>on</strong>s from c<strong>on</strong>tractual terms, mostly related to the2006 and 2007 blocks of business, have resulted inhistorically high levels of claim rescissi<strong>on</strong>s and denials(collectively referred to as rescissi<strong>on</strong>s) during 2011. As aresult, many lenders have increased their rescissi<strong>on</strong> appealsactivity as well as the success rate <strong>on</strong> those appeals byfocusing additi<strong>on</strong>al resources <strong>on</strong> the process. The increasedlender attenti<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> tracking down missing loan documentsal<strong>on</strong>g with the heightened focus <strong>on</strong> appeals of rescissi<strong>on</strong>scaused the estimated ultimate rescissi<strong>on</strong> rate (net of appeals)assumed in the loss reserves to be lower than the rescissi<strong>on</strong>level projected in 2011. If this trend c<strong>on</strong>tinues it mayunfavorably affect future results. We believe we have providedappropriate reserves for currently delinquent loans, c<strong>on</strong>sistentwith industry practices........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................184 <strong>AIG</strong> 2012 Form 10-K

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