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Bring on tomorrow - AIG.com

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ITEM 7 / CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES.....................................................................................................................................................................................We also use these estimates to determine whether to adjust DAC and record additi<strong>on</strong>al liabilities when unrealizedgains or losses <strong>on</strong> fixed maturity and equity securities available for sale are recognized through accumulated other<strong>com</strong>prehensive in<strong>com</strong>e. The determinati<strong>on</strong> is made at each balance sheet date, as if the securities had been sold attheir stated aggregate fair value and the proceeds reinvested at current yields. Significant unrealized appreciati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong>investments in a prol<strong>on</strong>ged low interest rate envir<strong>on</strong>ment may cause DAC to be adjusted and additi<strong>on</strong>al future policybenefit liabilities to be recorded through a charge directly to accumulated other <strong>com</strong>prehensive in<strong>com</strong>e (ie. ShadowDAC). This is included, net of tax, with the change in net unrealized appreciati<strong>on</strong> (depreciati<strong>on</strong>) of investments.Our future policy benefits include guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDB). We determine the GMDBliability each period end by estimating the expected value of death benefits in excess of the projected accountbalance and recognizing the excess ratably over the accumulati<strong>on</strong> period based <strong>on</strong> total expected fees. Theestimates include assumpti<strong>on</strong>s about interest rates, mortality rates, lapse rates and a randomly generated model ofinvestment returns. In additi<strong>on</strong> to GMDB, our future policy benefits include, to a lesser extent, guaranteed minimumin<strong>com</strong>e benefits (GMIB). We determine GMIB liability each period end by estimating the expected value of theperiodic in<strong>com</strong>e payments from annuities in excess of the projected account balance. We derive this estimate at thedate the annuity c<strong>on</strong>verts to regular payments, and we recognize the excess ratably over the accumulati<strong>on</strong> periodbased <strong>on</strong> total expected assessments. We periodically evaluate estimates used and adjust the additi<strong>on</strong>al liabilitybalance, with a related charge or credit to benefit expense, if actual experience or other evidence suggests thatearlier assumpti<strong>on</strong>s should be revised.We also issue certain variable annuity products that offer opti<strong>on</strong>al guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits(GMWB) and guaranteed minimum account value benefits (GMAV). These living benefits are embeddedderivatives that are required to be bifurcated from the host c<strong>on</strong>tract and carried at fair value. The fair value estimatesof the living benefit guarantees include assumpti<strong>on</strong>s such as equity market returns, interest rates, market volatilityand policyholder behavior. We also incorporate our own risk of n<strong>on</strong>-performance in the valuati<strong>on</strong> of the embeddedpolicy derivatives. See Note 6 to the C<strong>on</strong>solidated Financial Statements for informati<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> how <strong>AIG</strong> incorporates itsown n<strong>on</strong>-performance risk.We have a dynamic hedging program designed to manage ec<strong>on</strong>omic risk exposure associated with changes in thefair value of GMWB and GMAV liabilities caused by changes in the equity markets, interest rates and market impliedvolatilities. The program utilizes hedging instruments, including derivatives such as equity opti<strong>on</strong>s, futures c<strong>on</strong>tractsand interest rate swap c<strong>on</strong>tracts, and is designed so that changes in value of the hedging instruments move in theopposite directi<strong>on</strong> of changes in the GMWB and GMAV embedded derivative liabilities. We m<strong>on</strong>itor the hedgingpositi<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> a daily basis in relati<strong>on</strong> to the change in valuati<strong>on</strong> of GMWB and GMAV embedded derivative liabilities,and rebalance those positi<strong>on</strong>s as needed. Differences between the change in fair value of GMWB and GMAVembedded derivative liabilities and the hedging instruments can be caused by extreme and unanticipated movementsin the equity markets, interest rates and market volatility, policyholder behavior, statutory capital c<strong>on</strong>siderati<strong>on</strong>s andc<strong>on</strong>straints and the ability to purchase hedging instruments at prices c<strong>on</strong>sistent with the desired risk and returntrade-off. N<strong>on</strong>e of the derivative instruments described above are designated for hedge accounting.Approximately 56 percent of our individual variable annuity account values c<strong>on</strong>tain either a GMWB rider or a GMAVrider as of December 31, 2012. Declines in the equity markets, increased volatility and a sustained low interest rateenvir<strong>on</strong>ment increase our exposure to potential benefits under the GMWB and GMAV c<strong>on</strong>tracts, leading to anincrease in the existing liability for those benefits. Our exposure to the guaranteed amounts is equal to the amountby which the c<strong>on</strong>tract holder’s account balance is below the guaranteed withdrawal or account value amount. As ofDecember 31, 2012, our exposure to the guaranteed withdrawal and account value amount under GMWB and GMAVwas $0.9 billi<strong>on</strong> and $10 milli<strong>on</strong>, respectively.The <strong>on</strong>ly way the GMWB c<strong>on</strong>tract holder can m<strong>on</strong>etize the excess of the guaranteed amount over the account valueof the c<strong>on</strong>tract is through a series of withdrawals that do not exceed a specific percentage per year of theguaranteed amount. If, after the series of withdrawals, the account value is exhausted, the c<strong>on</strong>tract holder willreceive a series of annuity payments equal to the remaining guaranteed amount, and, for lifetime GWWB products,the annuity payments can c<strong>on</strong>tinue bey<strong>on</strong>d the guaranteed amount. The account value can also fluctuate with equitymarket returns <strong>on</strong> a daily basis resulting in increases or decreases in the excess of the guaranteed amount overaccount value.The net impact of the change in the fair value of the embedded derivative liabilities, as well as the change in the fairvalue of the derivative instruments is included in Net Realized Capital Gains (Losses)...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................190 <strong>AIG</strong> 2012 Form 10-K

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