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Bring on tomorrow - AIG.com

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ITEM 7 / ENTERPRISE RISK MANAGEMENT.....................................................................................................................................................................................$378 milli<strong>on</strong> and a net increase of Canadian-dollar exposure of $92 milli<strong>on</strong> due to unrealized investment appreciati<strong>on</strong>and positive results from operati<strong>on</strong>s; Euro exposure as a result of a reducti<strong>on</strong> in euro-denominated debt outstandingof $231 milli<strong>on</strong>, additi<strong>on</strong>al purchases of the AIRE real estate investment vehicle of $109 milli<strong>on</strong> as well as unrealizedinvestment appreciati<strong>on</strong> and positive results from operati<strong>on</strong>s at <strong>AIG</strong> Europe SA of $147 milli<strong>on</strong>; and a net increaseacross currencies of $258 milli<strong>on</strong>.For illustrative purposes, we modeled our sensitivities based <strong>on</strong> a 100 basis point increase in yield curves, a20 percent decline in equities and alternative assets, and a 10 percent depreciati<strong>on</strong> of all foreign currency exchangerates against the U.S. dollar. This should not be taken as a predicti<strong>on</strong>, but <strong>on</strong>ly as a dem<strong>on</strong>strati<strong>on</strong> of the potentialeffects of such events.The sensitivity factors utilized for 2012 and presented above were selected based <strong>on</strong> historical data from 1992 to2012, as follows (see the table below):• a 100 basis point parallel shift in the yield curve is c<strong>on</strong>sistent with a <strong>on</strong>e standard deviati<strong>on</strong> movement of thebenchmark ten-year treasury yield;• a 20 percent drop for equity and alternative investments is broadly c<strong>on</strong>sistent with a <strong>on</strong>e standard deviati<strong>on</strong>movement in the S&P 500; and• a 10 percent depreciati<strong>on</strong> of foreign currency exchange rates is c<strong>on</strong>sistent with a <strong>on</strong>e standard deviati<strong>on</strong>movement in the U.S. dollar (USD)/Japanese Yen (JPY) exchange rate.2012 Scenario 2012 as a Original 2011as a Multiple 2012 Multiple Scenario (based <strong>on</strong>Standard Suggested of Standard Change/ of Standard Standard Deviati<strong>on</strong> forPeriod Deviati<strong>on</strong> 2012 Scenario Deviati<strong>on</strong> Return Deviati<strong>on</strong> 1990-2011 Period)10-Year Treasury 1992-2012 0.01 0.01 0.99 – 0.11 0.01S&P 500 1992-2012 0.19 0.20 1.07 0.13 0.72 0.20USD/JPY 1992-2012 0.11 0.10 0.88 (0.11) 1.00 0.10Liquidity Risk Management..............................................................................................................................................................................................Liquidity risk is defined as the risk that our financial c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> will be adversely affected by the inability or perceivedinability to meet our short-term cash, collateral or other financial obligati<strong>on</strong>s.The failure to appropriately manage liquidity risk can result in reduced operating flexibility, increased costs, andreputati<strong>on</strong>al harm. Because liquidity is critically important, our liquidity governance includes a number of liquidity andfunding policies and m<strong>on</strong>itoring tools to address both <strong>AIG</strong>-specific, broader industry and market related liquidityevents.Sources of Liquidity risk can include, but are not limited to:• financial market movements – significant changes in interest rates can provide incentives for policyholders tosurrender their policies. Changes in markets can impact collateral posting requirements or create difficulty toliquidate assets at reas<strong>on</strong>able values to meet liquidity needs due to unfavorable market c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s, inadequatemarket depth, or other investors seeking to sell the same or similar assets;• potential reputati<strong>on</strong>al events or credit downgrade – changes can have an impact <strong>on</strong> policyholder cancellati<strong>on</strong>s andwithdrawals or impact collateral posting requirements; and• catastrophic events, including natural and man-made disasters, can increase policyholder claimsThe principal objective of ERM’s liquidity risk framework is to protect <strong>AIG</strong>’s liquidity positi<strong>on</strong> and identify a diversity offunding sources available to meet actual and c<strong>on</strong>tingent liabilities during both normal and stress periods.We have structured our c<strong>on</strong>solidated risk target to maintain a minimum liquidity buffer. <strong>AIG</strong> Parentliquidity risk tolerance levels are established for base and stress scenarios over a two-year time horiz<strong>on</strong> designed toensure that funding needs are met under varying market c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s. If we project that we will breach the tolerance,we will assess and determine the appropriate liquidity management acti<strong>on</strong>s. However, the market c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s in effectat that time may not permit us to achieve an increase in liquidity sources or a reducti<strong>on</strong> in liquidity requirements...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................164 <strong>AIG</strong> 2012 Form 10-K

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