Economic Report of the President

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The Years AheadWe are now at a critical juncture for the American economy. Therecession has led to strong pressures from some members of theCongress and from others to abandon our commitment to a policythat is aimed at long-term economic growth, capital accumulation,and price stability. There are many who urge new governmentspending programs and forcing the Federal Reserve to raise monetarygrowth rates to levels that would rekindle inflation.I am convinced that such policies would prove detrimental to thelong-run interests of the American people. Our economy, despite therecession, is extraordinarily resilient and is now on the road to ahealthy recovery. It is essential in the year ahead that the Administrationand the Congress work together, take a long-term perspective,and pursue economic policies that lead to sustained economic growthand to greater prosperity for all Americans.(j ^ CTVAJULAA^ \ CJL^MJ^K^February 2, 1983
THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Page 5: CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
Page 9 and 10: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12: Monetary policy will play a critica
Page 13: Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
Page 19 and 20: CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
Page 21 and 22: PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
Page 23 and 24: CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
Page 25 and 26: slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
Page 27 and 28: nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
Page 29 and 30: inflation. More specifically, the A
Page 31 and 32: inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
Page 33 and 34: 1988, an increase of about one-four
Page 35 and 36: CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
Page 37 and 38: frequently associated with poor hea
Page 39 and 40: Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
Page 41 and 42: Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
Page 43 and 44: These findings suggest several conc
Page 45 and 46: Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
Page 47 and 48: that these measures may have caused
Page 49 and 50: Most young people find jobs or leav
Page 51 and 52: to employers who hire youths. Tax c
Page 53 and 54: defined broadly to include individu
Page 55 and 56: ship between incomplete experience
Page 57 and 58: CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
Page 59 and 60: with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
Page 61 and 62: TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
Page 63 and 64: TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
Page 65 and 66:
concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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egulation was probably not applicab
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Aeronautics Board, for example, the
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system resulted. Price controls, wh
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NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
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Price and allocation controls only
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nications industries through the re
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Several major pieces of legislation
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tempt to set cartel rates would be
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computer information and advertisin
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of computer technology to the payme
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trend by widening the sources and u
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changes. That is, members can arbit
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ceived to be a consequence of exces
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lowest point in the post-World War
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ing. Partly in response to the drop
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Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
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Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
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percent increase in real defense pu
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8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
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housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
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orous competitor for credit as usur
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1982 their share had risen to over
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TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
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A critical element in achieving hea
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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ety of interagency and internationa
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ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University)
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CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
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B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
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19291933193919401941194219431944194
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
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Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
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TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
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TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
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TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
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TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
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Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204:
TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206:
TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208:
TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210:
TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212:
TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
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TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
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TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
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TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220:
TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
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TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
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TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
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TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248:
TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
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TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
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TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
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TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
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TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270:
TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
Page 285 and 286:
TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 287 and 288:
TABLE B-105.—International invest
Page 289 and 290:
TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
Page 291 and 292:
TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
Page 293:
TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
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