Economic Report of the President

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Junior Staff EconomistsChristopher B. Ballinger World Trade and International FinanceJohn H. CochraneMacroeconomic Analysis and ForecastingJohn S. EarlePublic Finance and Labor PolicyThomas W. Gilligan Transportation and Regulatory PolicyDavid S. Reitman Social Insurance Programs and GeneralBudget PolicyDan C. RobertsFinancial Institutions and MacroeconomicPolicyCatherine H. Furlong, Senior Statistician, continued to be incharge of the Council's Statistical Office. Mrs. Furlong has primaryresponsibility for managing the Council's statistical informationsystem. She supervises the publication of Economic Indicators and thepreparation of all statistical matter in the Economic Report. She alsooversees the verification of statistics in memoranda, testimony, andspeeches. Natalie V. Rentfro, Linda A. Reilly, and Barbara L. Sibelassist Mrs. Furlong.Serving as consultants during the year were Stephen H. Brooks(consultant), Jose A. Gomez-Ibanez (Harvard University), and RobertA. Leone (Harvard University).In preparing the Economic Report the Council relied upon the editorialservices of John Phillip Sawicki.SUPPORTING STAFFThe Administrative Office of the Council of Economic Advisersprovides general support for the Council's activities. Serving in theAdministrative Office were Elizabeth A. Kaminski, Staff Assistant tothe Council, and Catherine Fibich, Administrative Assistant.Members of the secretarial staff for the Chairman and CouncilMembers during 1982 were Patricia A. Lee, Susan A. Lindsey, GeorgiaA. O'Connor, and Alice H. Williams. Secretaries for the professionalstaff were Carolyn L. Bazarnick, Bessie M. Lafakis, RosemaryM. Rogers, Margaret L. Snyder, and Lillie M. Sturniolo.DEPARTURESThe Council's professional staff are in most cases on leave of absencefrom universities, other government agencies, or research institutions.Their tenure with the Council is usually limited to 1 or 2years. Senior staff economists who resigned during the year and theirsubsequent affiliations were James B. Burnham (The World Bank),William D. Dobson (Purdue University), Michele U. Fratianni (IndianaUniversity), Steven H. Hanke (Johns Hopkins University), Laur-154
ence J. Kotlikoff (Yale University), Michael J. McKee (Department ofthe Treasury), David C. Munro (General Motors), Susan C. Nelson(Department of the Treasury), Allen M. Parkman (University of NewMexico), Paul H. Rubin (Baruch College), and Elinor Y. Sachse (consultant).Junior economists who resigned in 1982 were Robert G. Murphy(Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Chris P. Varvares (WashingtonUniversity, St. Louis), and F. Katharine Warne (Yale University).155
Page 5:
CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
Page 9 and 10:
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
Page 11 and 12:
Monetary policy will play a critica
Page 13 and 14:
Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
Page 15:
THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
Page 19 and 20:
CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
Page 21 and 22:
PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
Page 23 and 24:
CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
Page 25 and 26:
slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
Page 27 and 28:
nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
Page 29 and 30:
inflation. More specifically, the A
Page 31 and 32:
inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
Page 33 and 34:
1988, an increase of about one-four
Page 35 and 36:
CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
Page 37 and 38:
frequently associated with poor hea
Page 39 and 40:
Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
Page 41 and 42:
Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
Page 43 and 44:
These findings suggest several conc
Page 45 and 46:
Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
Page 47 and 48:
that these measures may have caused
Page 49 and 50:
Most young people find jobs or leav
Page 51 and 52:
to employers who hire youths. Tax c
Page 53 and 54:
defined broadly to include individu
Page 55 and 56:
ship between incomplete experience
Page 57 and 58:
CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
Page 59 and 60:
with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
Page 61 and 62:
TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
Page 63 and 64:
TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
Page 65 and 66:
concentrate on doing what it does r
Page 67 and 68:
the United States will depress pric
Page 69 and 70:
Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
Page 71 and 72:
AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
Page 73 and 74:
arily reduced the international com
Page 75 and 76:
nancial markets. These transactions
Page 77 and 78:
TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
Page 79 and 80:
were undoubtedly a highly favorable
Page 81 and 82:
of lenders that some debtors will n
Page 83 and 84:
CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
Page 85 and 86:
ate of net investment was required,
Page 87 and 88:
able share in Japan and 56 percent
Page 89 and 90:
During the 1970s, productivity grow
Page 91 and 92:
MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
Page 93 and 94:
TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
Page 95 and 96:
on consumption taxation might also
Page 97 and 98:
Nevertheless, a number of economic
Page 99 and 100:
tion permitted businesses to deprec
Page 101 and 102:
A final problem under current tax l
Page 103 and 104:
fleeted efforts to deal with proble
Page 105 and 106:
egulation was probably not applicab
Page 107 and 108:
Aeronautics Board, for example, the
Page 109 and 110: system resulted. Price controls, wh
Page 111 and 112: NGPA, both controlled and decontrol
Page 113 and 114: Price and allocation controls only
Page 115 and 116: nications industries through the re
Page 117 and 118: Several major pieces of legislation
Page 119 and 120: tempt to set cartel rates would be
Page 121 and 122: computer information and advertisin
Page 123 and 124: of computer technology to the payme
Page 125 and 126: trend by widening the sources and u
Page 127 and 128: changes. That is, members can arbit
Page 129 and 130: ceived to be a consequence of exces
Page 131 and 132: lowest point in the post-World War
Page 133 and 134: ing. Partly in response to the drop
Page 135 and 136: Chart 6-3Ratio of Consumer Installm
Page 137 and 138: Chart 6-4RATIO1.85Real Inventory/Sa
Page 139 and 140: percent increase in real defense pu
Page 141 and 142: 8.8 percent in 1981. These declines
Page 143 and 144: housing. Borrowing by the nonfinanc
Page 145 and 146: orous competitor for credit as usur
Page 147 and 148: 1982 their share had risen to over
Page 149 and 150: TABLE 6-9.—Economic outlook for 1
Page 151: A critical element in achieving hea
Page 155 and 156: LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
Page 157 and 158: Report to the President on the Acti
Page 159: ety of interagency and internationa
Page 165 and 166: CONTENTSNATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDIT
Page 167 and 168: B-70. Mortgage debt outstanding by
Page 169 and 170: NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
Page 171 and 172: TABLE B-2.—Gross national product
Page 173 and 174: 19291933193919401941194219431944194
Page 175 and 176: TABLE B-5.—Changes in GNP and GNP
Page 181 and 182: TABLE B-ll.—Gross national produc
Page 183 and 184: TABLE B-13.—Output, costs, and pr
Page 185 and 186: TABLE B-14.—Personal consumption
Page 187 and 188: TABLE B-16.—Gross and net private
Page 189 and 190: TABLE B-18.—Inventories and final
Page 191 and 192: TABLE B-20.—Relation of national
Page 193 and 194: TABLE B-21.—National income by ty
Page 195 and 196: TABLE B-22.—Sources of personal i
Page 197 and 198: TABLE B-24.—Total and per capita
Page 199 and 200: Year or quarterTotalTotalTABLE B-26
Page 201 and 202: POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
Page 203 and 204: TABLE B-29.—Noninstitutional popu
Page 205 and 206: TABLE B-31.—Selected employment a
Page 207 and 208: TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
Page 209 and 210: TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
Page 211 and 212:
TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
Page 213 and 214:
TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
Page 215 and 216:
TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
Page 217 and 218:
TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
Page 219 and 220:
TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
Page 221 and 222:
TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
Page 223 and 224:
TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
Page 225 and 226:
TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
Page 227 and 228:
Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
Page 229 and 230:
TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
Page 231 and 232:
TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
Page 233 and 234:
TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
Page 241 and 242:
TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
Page 243 and 244:
TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
Page 245 and 246:
TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 247 and 248:
TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
Page 249 and 250:
TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
Page 251 and 252:
TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 253 and 254:
TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
Page 255 and 256:
TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
Page 257 and 258:
TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
Page 259 and 260:
TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
Page 261 and 262:
TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
Page 263 and 264:
CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
Page 265 and 266:
Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
Page 267 and 268:
TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
Page 269 and 270:
TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
Page 271 and 272:
TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
Page 273 and 274:
TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
Page 275 and 276:
AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
Page 277 and 278:
TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
Page 279 and 280:
TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
Page 281 and 282:
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
Page 283 and 284:
TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
Page 285 and 286:
TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 287 and 288:
TABLE B-105.—International invest
Page 289 and 290:
TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
Page 291 and 292:
TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
Page 293:
TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a
show all

Economic Report of the President

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?