Council Members and <strong>the</strong>ir dates <strong>of</strong> service are listed below:NamePositionOath <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fice dateSeparation dateEdwin 6. NourseLeon H. KeyserlingJohn D. ClarkRoy BloughRobert C TurnerArthur F. BurnsNeilH. JacobyWalter W. StewartRaymond J. SaulnierJoseph S. DavisPaul W McCrackenKarl BrandtHenry C. WallichWalter W. HellerJames TobinKermit GordonGardner AckleyJohn P. LewisOtto EcksteinArthur M OkunJames S. DuesenberryMerton J. PeckWarren L SmithPaul W. McCrackenHendrikS. HouthakkerHerbert SteinEzra SolomonMarina v.N. WhitmanGary L SeeversWilliam J FellnerAlan GreenspanPaul W. MacAvoyBurton G MalkielCharles L. SchultzeWilliam D. NordhausLyle E GramleyGeorge C. EadsStephen M. GoldfeldMurray L WeidenbaumJerry L. JordanWilliam A. NiskanenMartin FeldsteinWilliam PooleChairmanVice ChairmanActing ChairmanChairmanMemberVice ChairmanMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMember .MemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMember . .ChairmanMemberMemberMemberMemberChairmanMemberMemberChairmanMemberAugust 9,1946August 9, 1946November 2. 1949May 10, 1950August 9. 1946May 10,1950June 29, 1950September8, 1952March 19, 1953September 15,1953December 2,1953April 4, 1955December 3,1956May 2,1955December 3,1956November 1, 1958May 7, 1959January 29, 1961January 29, 1961January 29, 1961August 3, 1962November 16, 1964May 17, 1963September 2, 1964November 16, 1964February 15, 1968February 2,1966February 15, 1968July 1, 1968February 4,1969February 4,1969February 4, 1969January 1,1972September 9, 1971March 13,1972July 23, 1973October 31, 1973September 4, 1974June 13, 1975July 22, 1975January 22, 1977March 18, 1977March 18,1977June 6, 1979August 20, 1980February 27, 1981July 14,1981June 12, 1981October 14, 1982December 10, 1982November 1, 1949.January 20, 1953.February 11,1953.August 20, 1952.January 20,1953.December 1,1956.February 9, 1955.April 29, 1955.January 20,1961.October 31, 1958.January 31,1959.January 20,1961.January 20,1961.November 15, 1964.July 31, 1962.December 27,1962.February 15, 1968.August 31, 1964.February 1,1966.January 20. 1969.June 30, 1968.January 20, 1969.January 20, 1969.December 31, 1971.July 15, 1971.August 31, 1974.March 26,1973.August 15, 1973.April 15, 1975.February 25,1975.January 20,1977.November 15,1976.January 20, 1977.January 20, 1981.February 4, 1979.May 27, 1980.January 20,1981.January 20,1981.August 25, 1982.July 31, 1982.150
<strong>Report</strong> to <strong>the</strong> <strong>President</strong> on <strong>the</strong> Activities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>Council <strong>of</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> Advisers during 1982The Employment Act <strong>of</strong> 1946 (P.L. 304-79th Congress), as amended,provides <strong>the</strong> statutory base for <strong>the</strong> activities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Council <strong>of</strong><strong>Economic</strong> Advisers. The Council, through <strong>the</strong> Chairman, providesadvice to <strong>the</strong> <strong>President</strong> on a wide range <strong>of</strong> domestic and internationaleconomic policy issues.Martin Feldstein became Chairman on October 14, 1982, succeedingMurray L. Weidenbaum, who returned to Washington University(St. Louis). The Chairman is on leave from Harvard University,where he is a Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> <strong>Economic</strong>s. On July 31, 1982, Jerry L.Jordan resigned to return to <strong>the</strong> University <strong>of</strong> New Mexico, where heis a Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> <strong>Economic</strong>s at <strong>the</strong> Anderson Schools <strong>of</strong> Management.On December 10, 1982, William Poole became a Member <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>Council. Mr. Poole is on leave from Brown University where he is aPr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> <strong>Economic</strong>s. William A. Niskanen continued to serve as aMember.MACROECONOMIC POLICIESAs is its tradition, during 1982 <strong>the</strong> Council devoted much <strong>of</strong> itstime to assisting <strong>the</strong> <strong>President</strong> in <strong>the</strong> formulation <strong>of</strong> broad economicpolicy objectives and <strong>the</strong> programs to carry <strong>the</strong>m out. The development<strong>of</strong> economic assumptions and monitoring <strong>of</strong> current developments,under Council Member Jordan and subsequently CouncilMember Poole, were an area <strong>of</strong> major interest. Monetary policy developmentsreceived especially close attention.Council Member Jordan and later Council Member Poole chaired<strong>the</strong> interagency subcabinet "Troika" forecasting group, consisting <strong>of</strong>representatives from <strong>the</strong> Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Treasury and <strong>the</strong> Office<strong>of</strong> Management and Budget, with participation by <strong>the</strong> Department <strong>of</strong>Commerce. The Chairman <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Council continued his responsibilityfor presenting to <strong>the</strong> <strong>President</strong> <strong>the</strong> economic assumptions developedwith <strong>the</strong> Office <strong>of</strong> Management and Budget and <strong>the</strong> Department<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Treasury.Council Members chaired or participated in numerous CabinetCouncil working groups dealing with such issues as economic statistics,Federal credit programs, alternatives to Federal regulation, andFederal housing programs.151
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CONTENTSPageECONOMIC REPORT OF THE
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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENTTo
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Monetary policy will play a critica
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Interest Rates and the U.S. Trade D
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THE ANNUAL REPORTOF THECOUNCIL OF E
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. FROM RECESSI
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PageConclusions 122CHAPTER 6. REVIE
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CHAPTER 1From Recession to Recovery
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slowed somewhat in the 1970s regard
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nal GNP growth is reflected in a sl
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inflation. More specifically, the A
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inflation rate, or with a 12 percen
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1988, an increase of about one-four
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CHAPTER 2The Dual Problems of Struc
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frequently associated with poor hea
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Chart 2-2Distribution of Unemployme
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Chart 2-4Distribution of Unemployme
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These findings suggest several conc
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Wage RigidityA number of studies sh
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that these measures may have caused
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Most young people find jobs or leav
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to employers who hire youths. Tax c
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defined broadly to include individu
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ship between incomplete experience
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CHAPTER 3The United States in the W
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with 2.6 percent in the other Organ
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TABLE 3-1 .—Structure ofthe U.S.
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TABLE 3-2.—Trade balances by comm
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concentrate on doing what it does r
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the United States will depress pric
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Chart 3-3Real Exchange Rates Of Maj
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AN UNDERVALUED YEN?The explanations
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arily reduced the international com
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nancial markets. These transactions
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TABLE 3-6.—Economic performance b
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were undoubtedly a highly favorable
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of lenders that some debtors will n
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CHAPTER 4Increasing Capital Formati
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ate of net investment was required,
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able share in Japan and 56 percent
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During the 1970s, productivity grow
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MEASURING NATIONAL SAVINGDomestic s
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TAX RULES AND PERSONAL SAVINGMany e
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on consumption taxation might also
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Nevertheless, a number of economic
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tion permitted businesses to deprec
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A final problem under current tax l
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fleeted efforts to deal with proble
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TABLE B-33.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-35.—Unemployment by reaso
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TABLE B-37.— Wage and salary work
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TABLE B-39.—Average weekly earnin
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TABLE B-41.—Changes in productivi
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TABLE B-43-—Industrial production
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TABLE B-45.—Capacity utilization
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TABLE B-46.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-48.—Nonfarm business expe
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TABLE B-50.—Manufacturers' shipme
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Year or monthAllitemsPRICESTABLE B-
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TABLE B-53.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-55.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-57.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-58.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-59.—Producer price indexe
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MONEY STOCK, CREDIT, AND FINANCETAB
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TABLE B-63.—Commercial bank loans
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TABLE B-64.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-66.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-67 .—Bond yields and inte
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TABLE B-69.—Consumer installment
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TABLE B-71-—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-72.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-74.—Relation of Federal G
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TABLE B-76.—Federal Government re
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TABLE B-78.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-80.—Estimated ownership o
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CORPORATE PROFITS AND FINANCETABLE
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Year or quarterTABLE B-84.—Corpor
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TABLE B-86.—Relation of profits a
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TABLE B-88.—Determinants of busin
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TABLE B-9Q.~Current assets and liab
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TABLE B-92.—Common stock prices a
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AGRICULTURETABLE B-94.—Farm incom
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TABLE B-96.—Farm input use, selec
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TABLE B-98.—U.S. exports and impo
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INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSTABLE B-100
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TABLE B-101.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-105.—International invest
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TABLE B-107.— World trade balance
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TABLE B-109.—Growth rates in real
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TABLE B-lll.—Unemployment rate, a